IN AFRICA

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DISTORTIONS

TO AGRICULTURAL INCENTIVES

IN AFRICA

Editors

Kym Anderson • William A. Masters

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AGRICULTURAL

INCENTIVES

IN AFRICA

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Washington, D.C.

AGRICULTURAL INCENTIVES IN AFRICA

Kym Anderson

and William A. Masters, Editors

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1 2 3 4 12 11 10 09

This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent.

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Cover design: Tomoko Hirata/World Bank.

Cover photo: Arne Hoel/World Bank Photo Library.

ISBN: 978-0-8213-7652-2 eISBN: 978-0-8213-7664-5 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7652-2

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Distortions to agricultural incentives in Africa / edited by Kym Anderson and William A. Masters.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-0-8213-7652-2 — ISBN 978-0-8213-7664-5 (electronic)

1. Agriculture—Economic aspects—Africa. 2. Agriculture and state—Africa 3. Agricultural subsidies—

Africa. 4. Africa—Economic policy. I. Anderson, Kym. II. Masters, William A.

HD2118.D57 2008 338.1'86—dc22

2008037334

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To the authors of the country case studies, for their narratives and for generating the time series of distortion estimates that underpin the studies.

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Foreword xvii

Acknowledgments xxi

Contributors xxiii

Abbreviations xxix Map: The Focus Economies of Africa xxxi

PART I INTRODUCTION 1

1 Introduction and Summary 3

Kym Anderson and William A. Masters

PART II NORTH AFRICA 69

2 Arab Republic of Egypt 71

James Cassing, Saad Nassar, Gamal Siam, and Hoda Moussa

PART III SOUTHERN AFRICA 99

3 Madagascar 101

Fenohasina Maret

4 Mozambique 127

Andrea Alfieri, Channing Arndt, and Xavier Cirera

5 South Africa 147

Johann Kirsten, Lawrence Edwards, and Nick Vink

6 Zambia 175

Peter Robinson, Jones Govereh, and Daniel Ndlela

7 Zimbabwe 205

Daniel Ndlela and Peter Robinson

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PART IV EASTERN AFRICA 229

8 Ethiopia 231

Shahidur Rashid, Meron Assefa, and Gezahegn Ayele

9 Kenya 253

Alex Winter-Nelson and Gem Argwings-Kodhek

10 Sudan 283

Hamid Faki and Abdelmoneim Taha

11 Tanzania 307

Oliver Morrissey and Vincent Leyaro

12 Uganda 329

Alan Matthews, Pierre Claquin, and Jacob Opolot

PART V WESTERN AFRICA 359

13 Cameroon 361

Ernest Bamou and William A. Masters

14 Côte d’Ivoire 385

Philip Abbott

15 Ghana 413

Jonathan Brooks, Andre Croppenstedt, and Emmanuel Aggrey-Fynn

16 Nigeria 441

Peter Walkenhorst

17 Senegal 463

William A. Masters

18 Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Togo 485 John Baffes

Appendix A: Methodology for Measuring Distortions 507 to Agricultural Incentives

Kym Anderson, Marianne Kurzweil, Will Martin, Damiano Sandri, and Ernesto Valenzuela

Appendix B: Annual Estimates of Distortions to 539 Agricultural Incentives in Africa

Ernesto Valenzuela, Marian Kurzweil, Johanna Croser, Signe Nelgen, and Kym Anderson

Index 607

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Figures

1.1 NRAs in Agriculture, 16 African Countries, 1975–79

and 2000–04 23

1.2 NRAs, by Key Covered Product, 21 African Focus Countries,

1975–79 and 2000–04 25

1.3 NRAs for Exportable, Import-Competing, and All Farm

Products, 16 African Countries, 1955–2004 28

1.4 Gross Subsidy Equivalents of Assistance to Farmers,

16 African Countries, 1975–79 and 2000–04 39

1.5 Gross Subsidy Equivalents of Assistance to Farmers in 21 African Focus Countries, by Product, 1975–79 and 2000–04 42 1.6 NRAs for Agricultural and Nonagricultural Tradables and

the RRA, 16 African Countries, 1955–2004 44

1.7 RRAs in Agriculture, 16 African Countries, 1975–79

and 2000–04 48

1.8 NRAs and RRAs, Asia, Africa, and Latin America,

1965–2004 49 1.9 Real GDP Per Capita, Comparative Advantage, and NRAs

and RRAs, 16 African Countries, 1955–2005 50

1.10 Relationship between the RRA and the Trade Bias Index for

Agriculture, 16 African Focus Countries, 1975–79 and 2000–04 61 2.1 Product Shares of Agricultural Output, Egypt,

1955–2005 75

2.2 NRAs for Exportable, Import-Competing, and All

Agricultural Products, Egypt, 1955–2005 81

2.3 NRAs for Nonagricultural and Agricultural Tradables and

the RRA, Egypt, 1955–2005 84

3.1 NRAs for Exportable, Import-Competing, and All Covered

Farm Products, Madagascar, 1955–2003 112

3.2 NRAs for All Agricultural and Nonagricultural Tradables

and the RRA, Madagascar, 1955–2003 121

4.1 Real GDP, Mozambique, 1970–2004 130

4.2 Shares of the Value of Primary Agricultural Production at

Distorted Prices, Covered Products, Mozambique, 1976–2003 135 4.3 NRAs for Exportable, Import-Competing, and All Covered

Farm Products, Mozambique, 1976–2003 140

4.4 NRAs for Agricultural and Nonagricultural Tradables and

the RRA, Mozambique, 1976–2003 140

Farm Products, South Africa, 1961–2005 163

the RRA, South Africa, 1961–2005 167

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Farm Products, Zambia, 1961–2004 181

6.2 NRAs for Agricultural and Nonagricultural Tradables

and the RRA, Zambia, 1961–2004 187

6.3 Maize and Maize Meal CTEs and Consumer Subsidy Payment,

Zambia, 1955–2004 188

Farm Products, Zimbabwe, 1955–2004 214

and the RRA, Zimbabwe, 1955–2004 218

8.1 Food Availability and Food Gap by Political Regime,

Ethiopia, 1961–2002 236

8.2 Farmers’ Share of Export Prices for Coffee, Oilseeds, and

Pulses, Ethiopia, 1981–2005 241

8.3 NRAs for Exportable and All Farm Products, Ethiopia,

1981–2005 242

the RRA, Ethiopia, 1981–2005 243

9.1 Agricultural Value Added, Marketed Production, and GDP

Per Capita, Kenya, 1965–2004 256

9.2 Product Shares of Agricultural Production and Consumption,

Kenya, 1960–2004 258

Farm Products, Kenya, 1956–2004 263

the RRA, Kenya, 1956–2004 268

9.5 NRAs for Producers of Export Crops, Kenya,

1956–2004 269

10.1 Share of Agriculture in All Merchandise Exports, Sudan

1961–2004 286

10.2 Value of Agricultural Imports as a Share of Value

of Agricultural Exports, Sudan, 1961–2004 286 10.3 Product Shares of Agricultural Exports, Sudan,

1961–2004 287

Products, Sudan, 1955–2004 298

and the RRA, Sudan, 1955–2004 300

Products, Tanzania, 1976–2004 322

and the RRA, Tanzania, 1976–2004 324

12.1 Parallel Market Exchange Rate Premium over the Official

Exchange Rate, Uganda, 1961–2004 338

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12.2 Coffee and Cotton NRAs, Uganda, 1961–2004 342 12.3 NRAs for Exportable, Import-Competing, and All Farm

Products, Uganda, 1961–2004 349

the RRAs, Uganda, 1961–2004 353

13.1 Per Capita Output of Food and Nonfood Farm Products,

Cameroon and All Sub-Saharan Africa, 1961–2005 370 13.2 Composition of Farm Production at Distorted Prices,

Cameroon, 1966–2003 371

13.3 Foreign Exchange Rates, Cameroon 373

13.4 NRAs for Exportable and All Covered Farm Products,

Cameroon, 1961–2005 376

the RRA, Cameroon, 1961–2004 378

14.1 Share of Agricultural Production at Undistorted Domestic

Prices, Côte d’Ivoire, 1961–2005 391

14.2 NRAs for Exportable, Import-Competing, and

All Farm Products, Côte d’Ivoire, 1961–2005 406 14.3 NRAs for Agricultural and Nonagricultural Tradables and

the RRA, Côte d’Ivoire, 1961–2005 408

15.1 Cocoa Production and Producer Prices, Ghana, 1964–2002 427 15.2 Composition of Farm Production at Distorted Domestic

Price, Covered Products, Ghana, 1966–2003 430

Products, Ghana, 1955–2004 433

the RRA, Ghana, 1955–2004 435

16.1 Composition of Farm Production at Distorted Producer

Prices, Nigeria, 1967–2003 444

Products, Nigeria, 1961–2004 451

and the RRA, Nigeria, 1961–2004 453

16.4 Black Market Premium over Official Exchange Rate,

Nigeria, 1960–2004 454

17.1 Net Merchandise Trade, Senegal, 1961–2004 465

17.2 Foreign Exchange Rates, Senegal, 1960–2005 476

17.3 Wholesale and Undistorted Prices, Selected Crops,

Senegal, 1961–2004 478

Products, Senegal, 1961–2005 478

and the RRA, Senegal, 1961–2005 482

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18.1 International Price and Grower Price for Cotton,

Burkina Faso, 1970–2005 503

A.1 A Distorted Domestic Market for Foreign Currency 511 A.2 Distorted Domestic Markets for Farm Products 530 Tables

1.1 Key Economic and Trade Indicators, 21 African Focus

Countries, 2000–04 7

1.2 Poverty in Africa, Asia, and the World, 1981–2004 8 1.3 Growth of Real GDP and Exports, 21 African Focus

1.4 Exports as a Share of GDP, 21 African Focus Countries,

1975–2004 10

1.5 Sectoral Shares of GDP, 21 African Focus Countries,

1965–2004 12

1.6 Agriculture’s Share in Employment, 21 African Focus

Countries, 1965–2004 13

1.7 Sectoral Shares in Merchandise Exports, 21 African

Focus Countries, 1965–2004 14

1.8 Index of Revealed Comparative Advantage in Agriculture and Processed Food, 21 African Focus

Countries, 1965–2004 15

1.9 Export Orientation, Import Dependence, and Self-Sufficiency in Primary Agricultural Production, 16 African Focus

Countries, 1965–2004 16

1.10 NRAs in Agriculture, 16 African Focus Countries,

1955–2004 22 1.11 Dispersion of NRAs across Covered Agricultural Products,

16 African Focus Countries, 1955–2004 24

1.12 NRAs for Key Covered Farm Products, 21 African

1.13 NRAs in Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural Industries,

1.14 NRAs for Exportable and Import-Competing Farm Products, and the Trade Bias Index, 16 African

1.15 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, by Policy Instrument,

1.16 Gross Subsidy Equivalents of Assistance to Farmers,

1.17 Gross Subsidy Equivalents of Assistance to Farmers in Africa,

Key Covered Products, 1955–2004 40

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1.18 RRAs for Agriculture, 16 African Focus

Countries, 1955–2004 45

1.19 NRAs and Some of Their Determinants, 21 African Focus

Countries, 1960–2004 52

1.20 CTEs for Covered Farm Products, 21 African Focus

Countries, 1960–2004 54

1.21 Value of CTEs of Policies Assisting Producers of Covered Farm

Products, 21 African Focus Countries, 1965–2004 57 2.1 NRAs and CTEs for Covered Farm Products,

Egypt, 1955–2005 80

2.2 NRAs in Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural

Industries, Egypt, 1955–2005 83

2.3 Costs of Consumer Food Subsidies, Egypt, 1990–2005 94 3.1 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, Madagascar, 1966–2003 114 3.2 NRAs in Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural

Industries, Madagascar, 1966–2003 120

4.1 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, Mozambique, 1976–2003 138 4.2 NRAs in Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural Industries,

Mozambique, 1976–2003 139

5.1 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, South Africa, 1961–2005 165 5.2 NRAs in Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural

Industries, South Africa, 1961–2005 168

6.1 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, Zambia, 1961–2004 182 6.2 NRAs in Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural Industries,

Zambia, 1961–2004 186

7.1 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, Zimbabwe, 1955–2004 215 7.2 NRAs in Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural

Industries, Zimbabwe, 1955–2004 217

8.1 Economic Growth and Structural Changes, Ethiopia,

1961–2004 235

8.2 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, Ethiopia, 1981–2005 239 8.3 NRAs for Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural

Industries, Ethiopia, 1981–2005 240

9.1 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, Kenya, 1956–2004 264 9.2 NRAs in Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural

Industries, Kenya, 1956–2004 267

10.1 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, Sudan, 1955–2004 297 10.2 NRAs in Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural

Industries, Sudan, 1955–2004 299

11.1 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, Tanzania, 1976–2004 319 11.2 NRAs for Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural

Industries, Tanzania, 1976–2004 323

12.1 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, Uganda, 1961–2004 348

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12.2 NRAs for Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural

Industries, Uganda, 1961–2004 352

13.1 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, Cameroon, 1961–2004 375 13.2 NRAs for Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural

Industries, Cameroon, 1961–2004 377

14.1 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, Côte d’Ivoire, 1961–2005 405 14.2 NRAs for Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural Industries,

Côte d’Ivoire, 1961–2005 407

15.1 Trade and Exchange Rate Performance, Ghana, 1966–2004 420 15.2 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, Ghana, 1955–2004 432 15.3 NRAs for Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural

Industries, Ghana, 1955–2004 434

16.1 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, Nigeria, 1961–2004 450 16.2 NRAs for Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural

Industries, Nigeria, 1961–2004 452

16.3 Structure of Annual Household Expenditure by Income

Quintile, Nigeria, 2004 459

17.1 Food Balance Sheet Data, Senegal, 1961 and 2003 467 17.2 NRAs for Covered Farm Products, Senegal, 1961–2004 479 17.3 NRAs for Agriculture Relative to Nonagricultural

Industries, Senegal, 1961–2004 481

18.1 Summary Statistics for Cotton-Producing Countries of

West and Central Africa, 2001–03 488

18.2 Cotton Price Statistics, West and Central African

Countries, 1970–2005 501

18.3 NRAs for Cotton Growers, Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad,

Mali, and Togo, 1970–2005 502

B.1 Annual NRA Estimates, Benin, 1970–2005 541

B.2 Annual NRA Estimates, Burkina Faso, 1970–2005 542

B.3 Annual NRA Estimates, Cameroon, 1961–2004 543

B.4 Annual NRA Estimates, Chad, 1970–2005 545

B.5 Annual NRA Estimates, Côte D’Ivoire, 1961–2005 546 B.6 Annual NRA Estimates, Arab Republic of Egypt, 1955–2005 547

B.7 Annual NRA Estimates, Ethiopia, 1981–2005 549

B.8 Annual NRA Estimates, Ghana, 1955–2004 550

B.9 Annual NRA Estimates, Kenya, 1956–2004 552

B.10 Annual NRA Estimates, Madagascar, 1961–2003 554

B.11 Annual NRA Estimates, Mali, 1970–2005 555

B.12 Annual NRA Estimates, Mozambique, 1976–2003 556

B.13 Annual NRA Estimates, Nigeria, 1961–2004 558

B.14 Annual NRA Estimates, South Africa, 1961–2005 560

B.15 Annual NRA Estimates, Senegal, 1961–2004 564

B.16 Annual NRA Estimates, Sudan, 1955–2004 565

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B.17 Annual NRA Estimates, Tanzania, 1976–2004 567

B.18 Annual NRA Estimates, Togo, 1970–2005 569

B.19 Annual NRA Estimates, Uganda, 1961–2004 570

B.20 Annual NRA Estimates, Zambia, 1961–2004 572

B.21 Annual NRA Estimates, Zimbabwe, 1955–2004 574

B.22 Annual NRA Estimates for Covered Farm Products,

African Focus Countries, 1955–2005 576

B.23 Annual NRAs for Exportable, Import-Competing, and All Covered Farm Products, for Nonagricultural Tradables, and for the RRAs, 16 African Focus

Countries, 1955–2005 584

B.24 Annual Value Shares of Agricultural Production for Farm

Products, African Focus Countries, 1955–2005 586 B.25 Gross Subsidy Equivalents of Assistance to Farmers, African

B.26 Share of the Regional Value of Agricultural Production,

B.27 Summary of NRA Data for 21 African Focus Countries 599 B.28 Summary of NRA Data by Major Product, African

B.29 Shares of the Global Volume of Consumption and Production of Covered Agricultural Products,

African Focus Countries, 2000–04 602

B.30 Shares of the Global Value of Imports and Exports of Covered Agricultural Products, 16 African Focus

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One of every two people in Sub-Saharan Africa survives on less than $1.25 a day.

That proportion has changed little over the past three decades, unlike in Asia and elsewhere, so the region’s share of global poverty has risen from one-tenth to almost one-third since 1980. About 70 percent of today’s 400 million poor Africans live in rural areas and depend directly or indirectly on farming for their livelihoods.

While that rural share was even higher in the past (for example, 75 percent in 1993), it means policies affecting the incentives for farmers to produce and sell farm products remain a major influence on the extent of Africa’s poverty.

During the 1960s and 1970s, many African and other developing countries had in place pro-urban, anti-agricultural, and anti-trade policies, while many high- income countries restricted agricultural imports and subsidized their farmers.

Both sets of policies harmed African farmers. Although progress has been made over the past two decades to reduce those policy biases, including the antiagricultural bias in Africa, the extent of reform has not been systematically quantified. Nor has it been clear how many trade- and welfare-reducing price distortions remain in African agriculture, both within and between countries, and to what extent there continues to be an anti-trade bias within agriculture.

To help fill this lacuna, the World Bank launched a major research project in 2006 aimed at quantifying the changing extent of distortions to agricultural incentives since the 1950s. This volume is one of a series of four regional books that summarize the findings. By including most of the large African economies as case studies, the focus countries cover about 90 percent of the agricultural value added, farm households, total population, and total GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa.

The Arab Republic of Egypt, the most populous and poorest country in North Africa, is also included.

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xviii Foreword

The case studies help address questions such as the following: Where is there still a policy bias against agricultural production? To what extent are some farmers now being protected from import competition? What are the political economic forces behind the more-successful reformers, and how do they compare with those in less-successful countries where major distortions in agricultural incentives remain? How important have domestic political forces been in bringing about reform, as compared with international forces? What explains the cross- commodity pattern of distortions within the agricultural sector of each country?

What policy lessons and trade implications can be drawn from these differing experiences with a view to ensuring better growth-enhancing and poverty-reducing outcomes in the study’s focus countries and in the region’s other (mostly smaller and poorer) economies?

In Africa, the anti-agricultural and anti-trade policy biases worsened during the 1960s and 1970s, and the policy reforms since then have been less dramatic and more sporadic than in Asia, which has contributed to Africa’s rising share of global poverty. One of the continent’s greatest achievements has been the phasing out of agricultural export taxes over the past quarter-century. However, alongside that, agricultural protection from import competition has limited the decline in anti-trade bias within the farm sector. That has added to the cost of living for net buyers of food, who constitute the majority of the poor who survive on less than

$1.25 a day: 30 percent of the poor live in urban areas, but a sizeable share of the other 70 percent are also net buyers of food, including farmers who grow cash crops for export.

The new empirical indicators summarized in these case studies provide a strong evidence-based foundation for assessing the successes and failures of policies of the past and for evaluating policy options for the years ahead. The analyti- cal narratives reveal that the reforms to agricultural price and trade policies were sometimes undertaken unilaterally, but in other cases they were also partly in response to international pressures, including structural adjustment loan conditionality by international financial institutions in the 1980s.

The study is timely because the World Trade Organization (WTO) is in the midst of the Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations, and agricultural policy reform is one of the most contentious issues in those talks. To date, the countries of Africa have taken defensive positions in those negotiations. This has included a reluctance to reform policies that lead to high prices for staple foods, even though those policies may be harming those urban and rural poor who are net buyers of food. Available evidence suggests that problems of rural-urban poverty gaps have been alleviated in parts of Africa and Asia by some of the more- mobile members of farm households finding full- or part-time work off the farm

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and repatriating part of their higher earnings to those remaining in farm households. Efficient ways of assisting any left-behind groups of poor (nonfarm as well as farm) households include public investment measures that have high social payoffs, such as in basic education and health and in rural infrastructure, as well as in agricultural research and development. As argued in the World Bank’s World Development Report 2008,the latter also provides more sustainable and more equitable ways of securing domestic food supplies than artificially propping up prices.

Justin Yifu Lin Senior Vice President and Chief Economist The World Bank

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xxi This book provides an overview of the evolution of distortions to agricultural incentives caused by price, trade, and exchange rate policies in a large sample of African countries. Following the introduction and summary chapter, it includes commissioned country studies of 16 individual African economies plus one covering the cotton-exporting countries of West and Central Africa. The chapters are followed by two appendixes: one provides the methodology used to measure the nominal and relative rates of assistance to farmers and the taxes and subsidies on food consumption; the other provides country and regional summaries of annual estimates of these rates of assistance. In addition to including the largest North African economy (the Arab Republic of Egypt), the studied countries account for about 90 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s agricultural value added, farm households, total population, and total gross domestic product.

To the authors of the country case studies, who are listed on the following pages, we are extremely grateful for the dedicated way in which they delivered far more than we could have reasonably expected. Staff of the World Bank’s Africa Department, especially Sector Manager Karen Brooks, provided generous and insightful advice and assistance throughout the project, including through partic- ipating in a Bank-wide seminar on the draft studies. So too did the World Bank’s country directors of the studied countries when they cleared the working paper versions of each chapter. We have also benefited from the feedback provided by many participants at workshops and conferences in which drafts have been pre- sented over the past year or so. Johanna Croser, Francesca de Nicola, Esteban Jara, Marianne Kurzweil, Signe Nelgen, Damiano Sandri, and Ernesto Valenzuela gen- erously assisted in compiling material for the opening overview chapter, and Johanna Croser and Marie Damania assisted in the initial copyediting of the country chapters.

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Our thanks extend to the project’s Senior Advisory Board, whose members have provided sage advice and much encouragement throughout the planning and implementation stages of the project. The Board comprises Yujiro Hayami, Bernard Hoekman, Anne Krueger, John Nash, Johan Swinnen, Stefan Tanger- mann, Alberto Valdés, Alan Winters, and, until his untimely death in 2008, Bruce Gardner.

Our thanks go also to the Development Research Group of the World Bank and to the trust funds of the governments of Ireland, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom for financial assistance. This support made it possible to include this set of economies in a wider study that covers more than 20 other developing countries, 18 economies in transition from central planning, and 20 high-income countries. Three companion volumes examine case studies of other emerging economies in a similar way and for a similar time period (back to the mid-1950s or early 1960s, except for the transition economies). These World Bank publications cover East and South Asia (coedited by Kym Anderson and Will Martin), Latin America and the Caribbean (coedited by Kym Anderson and Alberto Valdés), and Eastern Europe and Central Asia (coedited by Kym Anderson and Johan Swinnen). A global overview volume, edited by Kym Anderson, will be published in 2009.

Kym Anderson and William A. Masters November 2008 xxii Acknowledgments

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xxiii Philip Abbott is a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University. He earned a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1976 and has been at Purdue since 1981. He conducts research on both international trade and international agricultural development.

Emmanuel Aggrey-Fynnis the director of the Statistic Research and Information Directorate of the Ministry of Food and Agriculture in Ghana, a post he has held for eight years. He has written numerous reports and studies and has served on or chaired several national committees and boards.

Andrea Alfieriis an economist at the Directorate of Studies and Policy Analysis within the Ministry of Planning and Development in Mozambique. At the time of writing, he was working as a trade policy advisor at the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Mozambique. He was previously an Overseas Development Institute fellow at the Ministry of Agriculture.

Kym Andersonis the George Gollin Professor of Economics at the University of Adelaide and a fellow of the Center for Economic Policy Research, London. During 2004–07, he was on an extended sabbatical, serving as lead economist (trade policy) in the Development Research Group of the World Bank in Washington, DC.

Gem Argwings-Kodhekis coordinator of the Kenyan government’s Agricultural Sector Coordinating Unit, which coordinates reform across four agricultural ministries and implements Kenya’s Strategy for Revitalizing Agriculture, which he coauthored. He is an agricultural economist on secondment from Tegemeo Institute of Egerton University.

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Channing Arndtis a professor of economics at the University of Copenhagen, following a three-year period based in Maputo, Mozambique. His publications cover poverty measurement, trade policy, macroeconomic implications of HIV/AIDS, agricultural productivity growth, and demand-systems estimation.

Meron Assefais a PhD candidate in agricultural economics at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. She received her master’s degree in economics from Addis Ababa University. Before starting graduate school, she worked for the World Bank and the International Food Policy Research Institute in Addis Ababa.

Gezahegn Ayeleis a senior research fellow and the head of the agriculture and rural development directorate at the Ethiopian Development Research Institute. He has served as a senior scientist at the Ethiopian Agricultural Research Organization and as country coordinator and team leader of the International Food Policy Research Institute’s 2020 Vision Initiatives for Africa.

John Baffesis a senior economist with the Development Prospects Group of the World Bank. His responsibilities include commodity market monitoring and price projections for tropical commodities, as well as research on market structure and policy reform issues. Since joining the Bank in 1993, he has worked in Bangladesh and Mexico.

Ernest Bamouis a professor of economics at the University of Yaoundé II and principal economist in the Economics Department of the Ministry of Economy and Finance in Cameroon. He has held visiting positions at the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Free University of Amsterdam.

Jonathan Brooksis a senior economist in the Trade and Agriculture Directorate of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. His recent work has focused on the links between agricultural and trade policy reforms and poverty. During this project, he was seconded to the Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome and continues to collaborate with colleagues there.

James Cassingis a professor of economics at the University of Pittsburgh. He has held visiting positions at the International Monetary Fund, the Australian National University, Bar-Ilan University in Tel Aviv, and the Bologna Center of Johns Hopkins University in Italy. He has also served as senior trade analysis advisor to the government of Indonesia.

Xavier Cirerais a research fellow at the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex. He was an advisor on trade research issues at the National xxiv Contributors

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Directorate of Studies and Policy Analysis, Ministry of Planning and Develop- ment, Mozambique. He was also an ODI fellow at the Ministry of Industry and Trade in Mozambique.

Pierre Claquin is a graduate student and research assistant in the Economics Department of Trinity College in Dublin, Ireland.

André Croppenstedtis an economist with the Agricultural Development Econom- ics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization. Before joining FAO in 1999, he worked for the Centre for the Study of African Economies at Oxford University and at Addis Ababa University.

Johanna Croserhas been a consultant with this project and is a PhD student in the Department of Economics of the University of British Columbia in Vancouver.

Lawrence Edwardsis an associate professor in the School of Economics at the Uni- versity of Cape Town. He works in the field of international trade, focusing on economic adjustments to trade liberalization; international competitiveness; and trade, technology, and labor.

Hamid Hussein Mohamed Fakiis a research professor and the director of the Agri- cultural Economics and Policy Research Center, Agricultural Research Corporation (ARC) in Sudan, where he established the Agricultural Economics Research Com- ponent at ARC. Previously he served as a coordinator of Regional Scientific Networks with the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas.

Jones Goverehis a research associate and in-country coordinator in Lusaka for Michigan State University’s agricultural development economics research and outreach program. His research work focuses on how to improve the performance of input markets in Zambia during its transition toward private-sector-led, market- oriented systems.

Johann Kirstenis a professor and the chair of the Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development at the University of Pretoria. His research and teaching focus on agricultural policy, agricultural development, and the application of new institutional economics on agricultural questions in southern Africa.

Marianne Kurzweilis a young professional at the African Development Bank in Tunis. During 2006–07, she was a consultant with this project in the Development Research Group at the World Bank in Washington, DC.

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Vincent Leyarois a researcher with the Economic and Social Research Foundation in Dar-es-Salaam, working primarily on trade policy and performance in Tanza- nia. He is a PhD candidate at the University of Nottingham.

Fenohasina Maretis a PhD candidate in economics at the George Washington University. Her fields of interest are development economics and applied micro- econometrics. She was living in the Democratic Republic of Congo during this project.

Will Martinis the lead economist in the Development Research Group at the World Bank in Washington, DC. He specializes in trade and agricultural policy issues globally, but especially in Asia, and has written extensively on trade policies affecting developing countries.

William A. Masters is a professor and associate head of the Department of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University. He is the coeditor of Agricultural Economicsand coauthor of Economics of Agricultural Development, among other publications. He was also a lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe (1988–90).

Alan Matthewsis a professor of European agricultural policy at Trinity College Dublin, Ireland. He has worked as a consultant to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Bank, and the European Commission; he has also been a panel member in two World Trade Organization dispute settlement cases.

Oliver Morrissey is a professor in development economics and director of CREDIT, School of Economics, University of Nottingham. He has published mostly on aid policy (conditionality and effectiveness), trade policy reform, and supply response and performance in agriculture, with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa.

Hoda Moussais a researcher at the Agricultural Economics Research Institute in Cairo. She is currently working in the Technical Office of the Agricultural Research Center in the Arab Republic of Egypt’s Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation.

Saad Zaki Nassaris a professor of agricultural economics at Cairo University. In 1982, he was appointed to the position of dean of the faculty of agriculture, Cairo University, Fayoum Branch. He has served as president of the Agricultural Research Center, and in 2001 he was appointed a governor of El Fayoum Governorate.

xxvi Contributors

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Daniel Ndlelais the director of Zimconsult, economic and planning consultants in Harare. After completing his doctorate at the University of Lund, Sweden, he taught economics at the University of Zimbabwe and consulted widely on trade- related issues in Africa.

Signe Nelgenhas been a consultant with this project and is a PhD student in the School of Economics of the University of Adelaide in Australia.

Jacob Opolotis a senior economist with the Bank of Uganda in Kampala.

Shahidur Rashidis a senior research fellow in the market and trade division of the International Food Policy Research Institute. He has held numerous positions at national agricultural research centers and has collaborated with many international organizations, research institutes, and UN agencies.

Peter Robinsonis the director for the African region of Economic Consulting Associates, based in London. Before taking that post in 2007, he spent 25 years as a consultant in Zimbabwe, working on macroeconomic modeling, forecasting trade policy, regional integration, and infrastructural development in southern Africa.

Damiano Sandriis a PhD candidate in economics at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. During 2006–07, he was a consultant with this project in the Develop- ment Research Group at the World Bank in Washington, DC.

Gamal Siamis a professor of agricultural economics and advisor to the Center for Agricultural Economic Studies, Faculty of Agriculture at Cairo University. In 1984, he was appointed chairman of the Department of Agricultural Economics, Cairo University. Since 1995, he has acted as advisor to the Ministry of Supply and Home Trade.

Abdelmoneim Tahais an associate research professor in the Agricultural Econom- ics and Policy Research Center of the Agricultural Research Corporation in Sudan. Since completing his master’s and PhD in agricultural economics at Pur- due University, he has conducted research on production, development, and agricultural policy.

Ernesto Valenzuelais a lecturer and research fellow at the School of Economics and Centre for International Economic Studies at the University of Adelaide. During 2005–07, he was a consultant with the Development Research Group of the World Bank in Washington, DC.

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Nick Vinkis a professor and the chair of the Department of Agricultural Econom- ics at the University of Stellenbosch in South Africa. His work experience includes 11 years as a policy analyst and policy manager at the Development Bank of Southern Africa. His current research is focused on agricultural trade issues and on land reform and transformation processes in South Africa.

Peter Walkenhorstis a senior economist in the World Bank’s International Trade Department, Washington, DC. His recent work has focused on trade policy reform, regionalism, and export diversification. Before joining the Bank, he worked as an economist in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Departments for Economics, Trade, and Agriculture.

Alex Winter-Nelsonis an associate professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. He conducts research on the relationship between agricultural markets and poverty in East Africa and on the economics of animal disease control in developing countries.

xxviii Contributors

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xxix ACP African, Caribbean, Pacific

BAT British American Tobacco CET common external tariff cif cost, insurance, and freight

Comecon Council for Mutual Economic Assistance

COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CTE consumer tax equivalent

ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

fob free on board

GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade IMF International Monetary Fund

ISIC International Standard Industrial Classification

MFN most favored nation

NGO nongovernmental organization NPS non-product-specific (assistance) NRA nominal rate of assistance

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OLS ordinary least squares

OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPV open pollinated variety

PPP purchasing power parity PSF producer support estimate RCA revealed comparative advantage REER real effective exchange rate

RER real exchange rate

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RERmis real exchange rate misalignment RRA relative rate of assistance

SADC Southern Africa Development Community

TBI trade bias index

VAT value added tax

WCA western and central Africa WTO World Trade Organization

Note:All dollar amounts are U.S. dollars (US$) unless otherwise indicated.

xxx Abbreviations

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KENYA ETHIOPIA NIGERIA

TANZANIA

MADAGASCAR MOZAMBIQUE

ZAMBIA UGANDA TOGO

BENIN GHANA D’IVOIRECÔTE

CAMEROON

ZIMBABWE

SOUTH AFRICA

SUDAN REP. OFARAB

EGYPT

MALI

CHAD BURKINA

FASO SENEGAL

This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank.

The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

0 500 1000 1500 Kilometers

0 500 1000 Miles

IBRD 36673 DECEMBER 2008

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Introduction

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In the 1960s and 1970s, many African governments had macroeconomic, sectoral, and trade policies that increasingly favored urban employees at the expense of farm households and favored the production of importable goods at the expense of exportables (Krueger, Schiff, and Valdes 1988, 1991; Thiele 2004). Similar biases were prevalent elsewhere but rarely to the same extent as in Africa. The magnitude of pro-urban (antiagricultural) and also pro-self-sufficiency (antitrade) interven- tion matters greatly for economic development, because agriculture is the main employer for the poor and in Africa is often a key export sector. Changes in the magnitude of these biases could help explain Africa’s development experience, including the continent’s slow pace of poverty alleviation and economic growth.

Indeed, since the 1980s, much progress has been made in reducing the antiagricultural and antitrade biases of policy in Africa, and these changes have been asso- ciated with faster economic growth and poverty alleviation. However, many price distortions remain. With 60 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s workforce still employed in agriculture and more than 80 percent of the region’s poorest households depending directly or indirectly on farming for their livelihoods (Chen and Ravallion 2007; World Bank 2007), agricultural and trade policies remain key influences on the pace and direction of change in Africa.

This volume summarizes a set of case studies measuring distortions within and across countries over time. It is part of a global research project seeking to improve understanding of agricultural policy interventions and reforms in Asia, Europe’s transition economies, and Latin America and the Caribbean as well as Africa.¹We make no attempt to summarize the voluminous literature on policy and economic growth in Africa (the most recent major continental study being 3

INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

Kym Anderson and William A. Masters

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Ndulu et al. 2008), let alone the literature dealing with public investment or economic growth strategies more broadly (addressed recently by the Commission on Growth and Development 2008). Our goals are more narrowly defined. One purpose of the project is simply to compare quantitative indicators of past and recent agricultural price policies. A second objective is to help describe the political economy behind these interventions in various national settings. A third purpose is to use this evidence to explore the prospects for further policy reforms and their potential effects.

The foundation of this project is a new set of annual time series estimates for protection and taxation of farmers over the past half century. Comparisons over time, across commodities, and among countries are used to help address such questions as: Where is there still a policy bias against agricultural production? Are some developing-country food producers that were once taxed now being protected from import competition, along the lines of such policy transitions seen earlier in Europe and Northeast Asia?

Beyond the data themselves, what political and economic circumstances can help explain the policies chosen by governments? What explains the pattern of distortions within the agricultural sector of each country? What are the political economy forces behind reform, and how do successful reformers differ from country to country? In particular, how important are domestic political factors relative to international forces, such as loan conditionality, multilateral trade agreements through the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO), and regional integration agreements? How has the balance of forces shifted over time?

Looking forward, our goal is to draw appropriate lessons from past experience, lessons that can be used to facilitate the adoption of more growth-enhancing and poverty-reducing policies in Africa and elsewhere. The study is timely for at least four reasons. One immediate use for the findings is in trade negotiations. African and other developing countries have been more engaged in the WTO’s Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations than in any previous GATT round, and the resulting diversity of interests has made it more difficult for WTO members to reach consensus. More information on agricultural and trade policies in these countries can inform dialogue between members. More information can also assist African countries seeking to position themselves favorably in preferential trade negotiations, notably the new Economic Partnership Agreements with the European Union. Another immediate need is for policies to respond to changing technologies, such as the information, communication, agricultural-biotechnology, and supermarket revolutions. A third source of urgency is to meet the United Nations–encouraged Millennium Development Goals by 2015, with agricultural policy being central to the alleviation of hunger and poverty. And last but not 4 Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Africa

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least, the study is timely because world food prices spiked in 2007–08 at very high levels and governments in some developing countries, in their panic to deal with the inevitable protests from consumers, have reacted in far from optimal ways.

Such spikes have occurred in the past, most notably in 1973–74, and lessons about what policy responses work better than others can be drawn from that set of experiences.

Including Africa in this study is crucial for several reasons. First, the continent is home to many of the world’s poorest people. In 2006, Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for less than 2 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) and exports and just 4 percent of agricultural GDP, but it also accounted for 12 percent of the world’s farmers, 16 percent of agricultural land, and 28 percent of those living on less than $1 a day (World Bank 2008). Second, it is the region where agricultural growth has been slowest over the past half-century, especially on a per capita basis. And third, it is where sectoral and macroeconomic (including exchange rate) policies have been most heavily interventionist and slowest to reform, dampening the contribution of market incentives to economic growth.

There is thus much to be learned from examining the policy history of the region, and there is great potential for poverty alleviation if market-friendly, growth- enhancing policies were to be adopted and the recent large increase in development assistance funds were to be used wisely to complement and strengthen market forces.

The African part of this study is based on a sample of 21 developing countries.

It includes the Arab Republic of Egypt, the largest and poorest country in North Africa; plus five countries of eastern Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda); five countries in southern Africa (Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe); five large economies in western Africa (Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Senegal); and five smaller economies of West and Central Africa for which cotton is a crucial export (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Togo, for which we estimate price distortions only for cotton and four nontraded food staples). In 2000–04, these economies (leav- ing aside Egypt) together accounted for around 90 percent of the agricultural value added, farm households, total population, and total GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa. Estimates of distortions are provided for as many years and products as data permit over the past five decades (an average of 43 years), averaging nine crop and livestock products a country and covering about 70 percent of the aggre- gate value of agricultural production in these countries. The time series, product, and country coverage greatly exceed that of the earlier study by Krueger, Schiff, and Valdes (1991), which focused on just three to five crops during the 1960–84 period in only two North African and two Sub-Saharan African countries (Egypt and Morocco, and Ghana and Zambia).

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The 21 focus economies in Africa accounted for only 1.3 percent of worldwide GDP but 11 percent of the world’s farmers in 2000–04. These and related shares are detailed in table 1.1, which reveals the considerable diversity within the region in stages of economic development, resource endowments, trade specialization, poverty incidence, and income inequality. The countries are also very diverse in their political and social development and thus provide a rich sample for comparative study.

The extent of poverty decline in Sub-Saharan Africa since 1981 has been disap- pointing relative to other developing-country regions. The number of people in Sub-Saharan Africa living on less than $1 a day (measured in 1993 purchasing power parity) grew from 168 million in 1981 to 252 million by 1993 and to 298 million by 2004. As a share of the population, the number of people in such extreme poverty has declined over the past decade from a peak of 48 percent in 1996 to 41 percent by 2004—but that is only marginally below the 42 percent level of 1981. More than two-thirds of that recent decline in poverty incidence has been in rural areas, while most of the rest is explained by the rural poor moving to urban centers (where many are still very poor). The African experience contrasts strongly with that in Asia, where even in South Asia, the proportion of the population living on less than $1 a day has fallen from one-half to less than one-third (table 1.2).

Policy choices have played an important role in the rates of economic growth, structural change, and poverty alleviation observed in Africa. Many countries had increasingly severe antiagricultural and antitrade biases in the 1960s and 1970s, with subsequent reforms that varied widely in their starting dates, speed of execu- tion, and extent of policy change. The switch to policies that are less biased against farmers and trade began in some countries by the late 1970s but in many others only in the 1980s or even later—and the transition is still going on, often in fits and starts and even with the occasional reversal (the most notable recent example being Zimbabwe). Agricultural price distortions are not the only target of policy reform, of course, but they are a key aspect of economic policy in most African countries.

This chapter begins with a brief summary of economic growth and structural changes in the region since the 1950s and of agricultural and other economic policy developments as they affected the farm sector at the time of, and in various stages after, independence from colonial powers. It then introduces the methodology used by the authors of the individual case studies to estimate the nominal rate of assistance (NRA), the corresponding consumer tax equivalent (CTE) facing the buyers of agricultural products, the relative rate of assistance (RRA) between the farm and nonfarm sectors, and the international trade bias index (TBI). The chapter subsequently provides a synopsis of the empirical results detailed in the country studies in this volume (and tabulated in brief in appendix 6 Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Africa

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7

ⴝ

Total Agricultural GDP Agricultural Agricultural trade Poverty Gini index of Country or subregion Population GDP GDP per capita land per capita RCA^a specialization index^b incid ence^c per capita income^d

Benin 0.12 0.01 0.09 7 55 1,034 — 31 39

Burkina Faso 0.19 0.01 0.09 5 111 953 — 29 40

Cameroon 0.25 0.03 0.38 13 74 445 — 15 45

Chad 0.14 0.01 0.07 5 695 — — — —

Côte d’Ivoire 0.28 0.04 0.21 12 139 722 — 18 48

Egypt, Arab Rep. of 1.13 0.26 1.11 23 6 175 — 2 34

Ethiopia 1.08 0.02 0.23 2 58 958 — 12 30

Ghana 0.33 0.02 0.2 6 88 748 — 17 41

Kenya 0.52 0.04 0.29 8 103 636 — 12 43

Madagascar 0.28 0.01 0.1 5 202 670 0.94 63 47

Mali 0.2 0.01 0.1 5 353 624 — 39 40

Mozambique 0.3 0.01 0.08 4 324 359 0.03 30 47

Nigeria 1.98 0.15 1.09 8 73 3 — 71 44

Senegal 0.17 0.02 0.09 10 94 444 — 13 41

South Africa 0.73 0.42 0.39 59 275 134 0.52 9 58

Sudan 0.55 0.05 0.5 8 490 209 — — —

Tanzania 0.58 0.03 0.33 5 166 800 0.73 56 35

Togo 0.09 0 0.05 5 80 407 — — —

Uganda 0.42 0.02 0.15 4 60 938 0.8 83 46

Zambia 0.18 0.01 0.07 7 398 194 0.35 60 51

Zimbabwe 0.21 0.04 0.14 18 200 602 0.83 62 50

African focus countries 9.73 1.21 5.74 13 145 — — — —

All Sub-Saharan Africa 9.37 0.98 4.93 10 164 — 0.55 41 —

All North Africa 2.34 0.70 2.81 30 84 — 0.78 — —

All Africa 11.71 1.67 7.74 14 148 — 0.20 32 —

Source:Sandri, Valenzuela, and Anderson 2007, which draws on World Development Indicators Database 2007.

Note:— no data are available.

a. The index of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) for agriculture and processed foods (this case) is the share of agriculture and processed food in national exports as a ratio of the worldwide sectoral share of global exports.

b. The index of primary agriculture trade specialization is the ratio of net exports to the sum of the exports and imports of agricultural and processed food products (the world average 0.0).

c. The percentage of the population living on less than $1 a day in 2004, from Chen and Ravallion 2007.

d. The Gini index is for the most recent year available between 2000 and 2004.

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B and more fully in Valenzuela et al. 2007), without attempting to survey the myr- iad policy changes that are discussed in more detail in the following chapters. The final sections summarize what we have learned and draw out implications of the findings, including those for poverty and inequality and for possible future direc- tions of policies affecting agricultural incentives in Africa.

Growth and Structural Changes in Africa

The recent report of the Commission on Growth and Development (2008) notes that 13 economies have had sustained growth in real per capita income of more than 7 percent for at least 25 consecutive years since World War II. Nine of those are East Asian and only 1 is African, namely, tiny Botswana (population: 2 million). Between 1980 and 2004, annual per capita GDP for our 21 focus countries of Africa grew at just 0.7 percent, half the global average of 1.4 percent and a small fraction of Asia’s 5.5 percent, so per capita incomes in Africa have been diverging away from those of richer countries, especially those in Asia. Agricultural GDP growth was faster in Africa than for the world as a whole (3.2 compared with 2.0 percent a year) but only marginally so when expressed on a per capita basis (0.6 compared with 0.5 percent). In the earlier 1965–84 period, Africa’s agricultural GDP growth rate was only 1.5 percent (World Bank 1986).

Within Africa, economic growth and structural change experiences across countries are quite diverse (table 1.3). Over time, Africa’s export volumes grew at relatively slow rates compared with the global average of 6.1 percent (last column of table 1.3), causing the region’s share of global exports to halve. However, as economies have gradually opened up, the share of exports in GDP has reversed its decline and has begun rising in several African countries (table 1.4).

8 Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Africa

Table 1.2. Poverty in Africa, Asia, and the World, 1981–2004

Region 1981 1990 1996 2004

Number of people (millions)

Sub-Saharan Africa 168 240 286 298

East Asia 796 476 279 169

South Asia 455 479 453 446

World 1,470 1,248 1,109 969

Percent of population

Sub-Saharan Africa 42 47 48 41

East Asia 58 30 16 9

South Asia 50 43 36 31

World 40 29 23 18

Source:Chen and Ravallion 2007.

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Country or subregion Agriculture Industry Services Total GDP GDP per capita Export volume

Benin 5.4 4.3 2.6 3.7 0.3 0.6

Burkina Faso 3.8 2.5 4.0 3.7 0.8 1.2

Cameroon 3.4 0.4 0.2 1.2 1.4 2.5

Chad 3.7 4.3 3.2 3.9 0.9 3.5

Egypt, Arab Rep. of 3 4.7 5.1 4.6 2.4 5.0

Ethiopia 1.8 1.3 4.5 2.9 0.2 4.7

Ghana 2.6 3.6 6.6 4.1 1.3 7.0

Kenya 2.3 2.5 3.5 3.0 0.1 4.1

Madagascar 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.4 2.1

Mali 3.3 5.6 2.5 3.3 0.6 8.1

Mozambique 4.2 7.7 6.4 4.4 2.3 7.7

Nigeria 3.7 1.6 5.6 3.1 0.4 3.0

Senegal 2.1 4 2.9 2.9 0.2 4.5

South Africa 1.4 0.5 2.3 1.7 0.5 3.7

Sudan 4.9 4.6 3.5 4.3 1.9 4.3

Tanzania 3.6 5.0 4.0 3.8 1.1 6.2

Togo 3.9 1.7 1.2 2.1 1.1 0.3

Uganda 3.6 9.3 6.9 5.9 2.4 8.9

Zambia 2.5 0.4 1.4 1.0 1.6 1.1

Zimbabwe 2.3 0.3 2.3 1.9 0.6 6.0

African focus countries 3.2 2.6 3.5 3.1 0.7 4.4

All Sub-Saharan Africa 3.6 1.7 2.9 2.7 0.1 —

All North Africa — — — 3.9 1.8 —

All Africa — — — 3.7 — —

Sources:Sandri, Valenzuela, and Anderson 2007; World Development Indicators Database 2007.

Note:— no data are available.

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