On the contrary, a small portion of remittances arriving in Egypt come from Europe. What is less known is the coming oldies boom in the Mediterranean, especially in North Africa, where the demographic transition and decline in birth rates are happening remarkably quickly. The speed of this demographic transition will increase the financial and health problems of the elderly population in the coming decades.
Territories and Economic Issues: Small but Rising Role of Clusters, Huge Investments Needs
However, map 6.6 shows insufficient household computer equipment in many areas of Algeria and Tunisia, particularly in the former. The EIB predicts that in the coming decades the energy, facilities and urban services financing needs of the Mediterranean partner countries are expected to be around USD 250 billion: 100 billion for energy, 110 billion for urban facilities such as water, sanitation, waste, local transport, education , healthcare; 20 for domestic and international traffic (ports, airports, highways). Map 6.6 The key role of IT in Mediterranean integration should be added. "Numeric illiteracy" in Tunisia and Algeria, 2011.
In the 1970s, the per capita energy consumption differential between the southern and northern sides of the Mediterranean stood at 1:8; by 2000 it had fallen to 1:4, and within ten years it is expected to fall to 1:2. Its main objective is to promote cooperation of the companies operating in the Mediterranean region, making energy a key element for regional integration. Additionally, the cost of adapting this neighborhood to climate change could reach $40 billion over the next two decades.
One lesson learned from the Anima database on FDI used in the ITAN project is that inflows do not only go to the wealthiest areas. The growth of foreign investment in the automotive industry (see the Renault car factory in Tangier-Med) and the aerospace industry suggests that these Mediterranean partner countries can be seen with a different eye than the classical vision of the "periphery" highlighted above. .
Environment: The Critical Case of Water and Agricultural Land
MENA, parts of which were the grain baskets of ancient Rome, has become the world region with the highest level of food stress: in 2003, the gap between local resources and consumption reached 54% of total supply, and up to in 2050 it is expected to more than double. On a per capita basis, by 2050 the gap will be three times greater than in sub-Saharan Africa. The first scenario is basic and leads to an output per capita of 80% compared to that of the 2000s, and almost doubling of imports.
The third (scenario with severe climate change) and the fourth (total liberalization of food trade) lead to imports multiplied by three compared to the 2000s. The only scenario where the production per population does not fall, and where imports remain tolerable, is a deep Euro-Mediterranean cooperation. Considering the still large share of agriculture in employment in the various Mediterranean partner countries, it is easy to understand that the future of their rural areas.
6.4 2050 prospects for agro-industry in the Middle East and North Africa (in vegetable and animal kilocalories per day). Source Inra-Cirad (2009): Agrimonde. Even in countries like Algeria, where agriculture plays a minor role, this is a key issue as the state, thanks to its recent Politique de Renouveau Agricole et Rural, aims to reduce its dependence on food imports and strengthen its agricultural sector. had lagged behind in the first decades of the republic.
Dif ﬁ cult Decentralisation
Regionalism and Regionalisation in the Euro-Mediterranean Space
Regionalisation: The Euro-Mediterranean Missing Link Is Productive Integration
It has become clear especially since the early 2000s that the economic future of the Arab countries depends on the international positioning of their production systems (trade balance and FDI). One would think that the gradual establishment of the Euromed free trade area would lead Mediterranean partner countries to greater openness among themselves and to the rest of the world. Since the Barcelona process launched in 1995, the impact of the Euromed agreements on regional trade has been positive but limited and has decreased over time due to (i) gradual elimination of the multi-fibre agreement that this Mediterranean economies once enjoyed compared to Asian countries, (ii) the EU's signing of preferential agreements with Central and Eastern Europe and (iii) the consequences of the EU's restrictive policies regarding agricultural trade (Abdallah 2011).
For the main Western European countries, this neighborhood represents less than 9% of the FDI outflow target and even less than 6% for France, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium (Map 6.9). The second is agriculture, despite Ciheam's continued claims.3 Last but not least is professional mobility, recognition of credentials, professional qualifications and ease of movement within the Euro-Mediterranean regional labor markets. For example, only 1 in 6 Jordanian high-level students enrolled abroad come to Europe; most of the highly skilled people of the Eastern Mediterranean living abroad live in North America.
In short, Mediterranean integration remains more trade-oriented than production-oriented. This openness has therefore failed to generate sufficient impact to stimulate job creation, one of the main challenges of the economic democracy ushered in by the Arab Spring.
Regionalism: European Aid Too Small and Too Scattered to Really Impact the Mediterranean
A geographical breakdown of the use of total EU funds for development is difficult to determine. We could calculate the consolidated disbursements of total EU funds to the Mediterranean for the year 2009: the amount amounts to 1.2 billion euros, i.e. 11.5% of all EU aid (compared to 6, 5% in 2000 we are talking about the official Mediterranean neighborhood, i.e. without Turkey). However, expressed in euros per capita, the future member states clearly stand out as the main target of EU aid policy.
During the second phase of the program (Meda II funding, the scope of possible actions was further expanded due to the strengthening of the "security pillar". Although agriculture accounts for a quarter of GDP in most SEM countries, it was almost completely overlooked .Since then, some European programs have actually improved, such as FP7 and Erasmus Mundus in the Mediterranean, the European Neighborhood Program for Agriculture and Rural Development (ENPARD), especially in Tunisia, and the mandate of the EDRB has been extended to the Mediterranean countries in transition.
Mach's 2013 communication on the European Union's new neighborhood policy (2013) proposed increasing European funding for neighboring countries by 22% in the period 2014-2020. It is still too early to measure the impact of the money that will actually be spent on the neighboring Mediterranean regions.
Regionalism: A Slow but a Real Trend Toward Regional Deep Integration
2007-2013) played a role in all areas of development: trade, environment, climate change, peace and security, agriculture, fisheries, social aspects (health, education, vocational training), employment and labor, migration, research and innovation, information society, healthy governance, taxation – not to mention consideration of gender balance, children's rights and the defense of indigenous peoples. Before the Arab Spring, the Mediterranean policy of the European Commission was therefore characterized as follows: a low financial priority, for a varied series of actions over an extremely broad spectrum and mostly in the form of budget support to various ministries. The Union for the Mediterranean has prioritized pollution control in the Mediterranean, confirming the importance of the environmental theme for regional integration.
Energy: In 2003, the ministers of the Barcelona Process decided to move towards integrated gas and electricity markets between the Mediterranean neighbors and Europe. The decision of the Union for the Mediterranean in 2008 to launch the Mediterranean Solar Plan foresees some strengthening of cooperation in this regard, whether in terms of solar generation, electricity connection infrastructures or regulatory aspects. Since the rise of the Arab Spring, the European Union has been calling for a renewed Mediterranean partnership; will apparently no longer be based on public assistance.
Ongoing political and academic debates discuss (i) political conditionality: no Mediterranean neighboring country should henceforth be supported by European money if it is not involved in a true democratization and the rule of law; (ii) stronger support of the production system, better convergence of economic norms and standards, and composition of a Euro-Mediterranean development bank. Several years ago, the European Commission (2011) presented accurate prospects in its communication of 8 March 2011: liberalization of professional mobility, significant increase of EIB's loans, extension of the EBRD's mandate to Mediterranean neighbors, and project of a.
Strategic Synthesis: Time to Political Boldness in the Euromed Process
- Avoiding Water Wars
- The Need for a Food Security and Agricultural Policy
- A “ Euro-Mediterranean Energy Community ” ?
- From “ Migration ” to “ Mobility ”
Its role would be to coordinate the efforts of the numerous institutions and NGOs focusing on water in the Mediterranean. When it comes to its governance, a Euro-Mediterranean Water Council can bring together representatives of heads of state of the participating countries, major cities of the region and directors of NGOs and institutions working with water in the Mediterranean, to determine the strategic lines of the agency. Conversely, European stakeholders recognize that there are business opportunities in the Mediterranean, that good local governance of water management is an excellent way to promote citizen participation and democracy and to avoid possible water wars.
The issue of food will become a crucial issue for Mediterranean neighbors due to (i) growing population in the southern and eastern Mediterranean, where almost 400 million people need to be fed by 2030; (ii) increasing nutritional imbalances and diseases associated with the gradual abandonment of the Mediterranean diet consisting of fruits, vegetables, olive oil and fish; (iii) degraded ecosystems, global warming, reduction of available agricultural land and water resources with serious consequences for the potential of local production, which currently provides more than 25 million jobs in the region. It is not: despite the huge Mediterranean energy markets and the planned projects (MSP, Desertec, Medgrid), Europe will be increasingly dependent on energy imports, imperative to secure its purchases and not rely too much on Russia . Moreover, the environmental impact of any poor energy transition will respect no border: it is in the interest of the entire Euro-Mediterranean region to complement this transition in a cooperative way (Ben Abdallah et al.2013).
Such policy orientations presuppose genuine occupational mobility in the region, instead of the counterproductive and humiliating harsh visa regimes that prevail in the Euro-Mediterranean area. The images or other third party material in this chapter are included in the work's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if such material is not included in the work's Creative Commons license and the action in question is not permitted under statutory regulation, users will have to obtain permission from the license holder to duplicate, modify or reproduce the material.