rt^iFiiriiiimii
DIEN SAN TAI C H I N H - TIEN T i - N G A I J ^ t N t TThj truong tidn t^ - tin dung M a c Uii s u a ! h u y dnii^ dn N g a n haiiK N h a nifov ( N I I N N i b a n h a n h I h r o 'riiniin U( so 1 9 / 2 0 i : i / ' r T - N I I N N iifiay 8/6/2012 (lirov (ln> \n un (huh t r o n g than^;
tuM! .mi-i VNI) phu I.I
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Nii.XN da \ r i i c a u c a r N H N X clii n h a n h Unh, tliaiih phd g i a m s a t c h a t che dm \(Vi cac td chiic tin d u n g ( T C T D i tronji viec t h u c h i e n cac q u y d i n h ve t r a n lai s u a t tien gih b a n g V N D ; C a c T C T D p h a i n i e m y e t cong k h a i cac mUc lai s u a t a p d u n g ddi vcTi tidn gih n i t t r u a c h a n Cling n h u cac m u c p h i p h a t ( n e u CO) doi vol t i e n gui n i t t r u a c h a n T u y n h i e n , h i e n t u o n g cac T C T D
"lach l u a t " d e t h u hiit t i e n gih tir d a n cu v a n xay r a . Doi vol tien giji b a n g U S D , n h i e u n g a n h a n g d a a p d u n g m u c lai s u a t len tin 49c - 4,5*^ t u y t h u o c vao so l u t m g t i e n gui. T r o n g giai doan n a y , t h a n h k h o a n n g a n h a n g d a on d i n h , t a n g truiyng t i n d u n g k h o n g CO s u bien d p n g n a o d a n g k e n e n cac n g a n h a n g t h m m g m a i ( N H T M ) m u o n t a n g h u y d o n g d o n g U S D de d a y m a n h tin d u n g len. S a u t h a n g d a u n a m n a y , t i n d u n g chi t a n g 0J67i' ( h a y 1,4% n e u t i n h ca so d u d a u t u t r a i p h i e u d o a n h n g h i e p v a liy t h a c d d u t u ) n e n cac n g a n h a n g v a n c a n ti6n gih d a n c u on
MOT SO NET GO BAI TAI CHiNH VIET NAI
T R U N G T A M N C K H B c O T C
KH
, „ s;n,i;clin VHT i;uig I,-ong cac l l i a n g C , H „ a i s n a l hny dong lJ,a|.
V N I ) . MSI) iUtor c:u-
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gill VNI), innl s u N I I ' I ' M d a d i i n g cac liii'ii |)ha|i nlur t a n g p h i e u iiuia h a n g cho k h a c h h o a c cho k h a c h h a n g huerng lai s u a t ky h a n dai ( t r e n 12 t h a n g ) ke ca k h i k h a c h l i a n g rut tuMi trini'c h a n t h a y \'i a p (liing hh .'^uat kh(ing ky h a n t h e o q u y d i n h . Ben c a n h do, dii t i n h t h a n h k h o a n ciia ca h e t h o n g n g a n h a n g h i e n n a y duac d a n h gia la (in d m h do N H N N d a co n h i i n g d u ' u c h i n h linh b o a t n h u n g vein h u y dcing chii y e u Ja n g a n h a n t r o n g k h i t i e n cho vay lai chii y e u la t r u n g va dai h a n n e n m o t so n g a n h a n g d a roi vao t i n h t r a n g m a i can dm \v t h a n h k h o a n d a n (oi viec |>hai lnj\' d o n g vmi \'oi lai suiit cao.
T h e o dien bien cua 1am p h a t . n e u l a m piiat ca n a m 2(112 dime k h o n g che u nurc I'i Ihi lai s u a t h u y dcing V N D co ( h e tiep tuc d u o c g i a m x u o n g S'-i cuoi n a m n a y va n e u l a m p h a t t i e p t u c a m u c t h a p t h i d e n g i u a n a m 2 0 1 3 , miic lai s u a t h u y d o n g co t h e chi con 7 % / n a m va lai s u a t cho v a y s e g i a m x u o n g miic 1 0 % / n a m .
I lai
kl v a y cu
xiKing l-S'/r/nam m a N H N N dcmg vimi va (!(•• ngh.
cac N H T M thirc hien de chia se khf) k h a n vui cac
d o a n h n g h i e p , c6 n g h i a miic 157r/nam k h o n g p h a i d a n h cho moi doi t u o n g k h a c h h a n g . Thuc h i e n c h u t r m m g t r e n , mot so n g a n h a n g d a co dong thai giam iai s u a t cac k h o a n vay cii xuong 15%/nam va a p d u n g lai suat cho cac k h o a n v a y mcri a miic uu dai Lir 12 - 15'.^(/nam. T u y nhien, th(ing ke .su bo ciia N H N N den t r u n g t u a n t h a n g 7 cho t h a y moi CO 20/37 n g a n h a n g t h u c hien viee d i e u c h i n h lai s u a t cac kliiKin \ a y cu x u o n g 159c/nam, viiu con n h i e u n g a n h a n g tiep tnc g u i lai s u a t a miic cao va c h a p hiinh qui d i n h moi mang t m h c h a t doi p h o . Viec giam lai s u a t chi im t i e n d o a n h nghiep co ket q u a k i n h d o a n h tot, co t n e n xong p h a t t n e n . con cac doanh nghi(i'p y e u t h u c s u c a n ho trtf thi v a n k h o t i e p c a n von. Doi vcd k h a c h h a n g ca n h a n , t h u c te cho t h a y lai s u a t cho v a y t i n chap v ^ n len ton 24 - 25%/nam, lai s u a t cho v a y t h e c h a p d miic cao 1 8 % / n a m d m o t so' n g a n hang m a luiyng t i e n cho v a y khong
38
CHUNG KHOAN VIET NAM So 106 • Tlh'in^ 8/2012
DIEN BAN TAI CHINH • TIEN TE - NGAN HANG ''^^'"""•'''"''•'
E THI TRVONG HANG 7 / 2 0 1 2
duofc nhieu nhu mong muon cua khach hang nen hoat dgng cho vay tieu diing v i n chua thu hiit duoc nhieu khach hang.
Lai suat lien ngan hang co xu huomg giam va on dinh trong ca thang 7. Sau khi NHNN quy dinh lai suat cho vay doi vcri cac khoan vay cii duffc giam ve 15%/nam, lai suat lien ngan hang da giam manh, dieu nay Cling cho thay von kha dung va thanh khoan ciia cac ngan hang da tot len. Cac giao dich tren thi truong chii yeu dien ra d cac ky han ngin nhu qua dem hay 1 tuan va 2 tuan.
Viec khat ngf va xin gia han tra ng tren thi truong lien ngan hang van con tiep dien. Cac ngan hang dcmg trudc kho khan nff dong tren thi trutmg lien ngan hang. Do chi dao ciia NHNN ve viec cac don vi yeu thanh khoan Uu tien giai quyet cac khoan na cho thi trucmg nen cac ngan hang di vay da hen tuc khat ntf. De dap ling nhu cau thanh khoan cap thiet, mot so
ngan hang nho da di vay tren thi trudng 1 (thi trucmg giao dich giUa ngan hang voi d&n cu) vdi miic lai suat cao trong khi do do khong dii (hoac thieu) dieu kien ' vay von tren thi trucmg 2 (thi trudng lien ngan hang) nen khong It NHTM da mat kha nang tra ngr diing han tren thi trudng lien ngan hang. Day cUng la he qua ciia viec cac NHTM cho nhau vay qua de dang tren thi trudng hai trong thdi gian trudc, trong khi lai rait chat che khi cho doanh nghiep vay.
NHNN CO van ban so' 4080/NHNN-TD ngay 5/7/2012 yeu c^u cac thanh vien thuc hien nghiem tiic Nghi quyet 01/NQ- CP ngay 3/1/2012 va khong gay dot bien lai suat trong cac giao dich Hen ngan hang (bao gom cho vay va gui tien), trong trudng hffp c6 dien bien bat ' thudng, NHNN se quy dinh miitc
iJU'^o nguon pon cua da soJffi^TM dang d trang thdi doi ddo trong khi tdng trudng tin dung chua duac cdi thien ddng ki n^n thi trudng md tiep tuc CO dien bien giao dich tram Idng. CTj
j lai suat cho vay lien ngan hang I de cac thanh vien thuc hien.
I Bien phap tren nham quan ly
; thi trudng lien ngan hang de thi ' trudng nay hoat dong va phat huy tot chiic nSng dieu hda kha
! nang thanh khoan giUa cac I TCTD Cling nhu cdc chi nhanh
ngan hang nudc ngoai. Dong I thdi NHTW Cling yeu cau j NHNN chi nhanh tinh, thanh
phd thuc hien kiem tra, giam sat, thanh tra va xii ly theo tham quy^n cac van de hen i quan tdi hoat dgng cho vay va lai I suat huy dong tren thi trudng
hen ngan hang, bao cao va de
! xuat kip thdi vdi NHNN de xii ly j cac van de phat sinh nhSm on , dinh thi trudng tien te.
Lai suat tren thi trudng md cung giam ve miic thap nhait 1 (8%/nam) ke td thang 11/2010 , sau 6 lan dieu chinh. NHNN
• Cling chuyen tii phuffng thiic j dau thau khoi luofng vdi lai suat I co' dinh sang phuong thiic dau thau canh tranh lai suat cho cac I giao dich mua/ban lai co ky han i tren thi trudng md. Day la
! nhiJng ddng thai cho thay I NHNN dang thuc hien cac bien j phap nhdm ndi long chinh sach I tien te va ho trff thanh khoan I cho cac NHTM trong thdi gian tdi, giiip cho cac ngan hang cd ' the tiep can vd'n tren thi trudng
! mff. Tuy nhien, do ngudn von I ciia da sd NHTM dang d trang I thai ddi dao trong khi tang
! trudng tin dung chua duffc cai I thien dang ke nen thi trudng md I tiep tuc CO dien bien giao dich I tram ISng vdi ty le tning thau ' Cling nhu ty le chao thau thap I trong thang, Lai suait tren thi I trudng md dii da giam so vdi I thang trudc (8%/nam) nhung
55" 166 - Thang 8/2012 CHUNG KHOAN VIET NAM
DIEN DAN TAI C H I N H - TI^N T i •
vkn cao hon mat b&ng lai su&'t binh quan tren thi trudng lien ngan hang nen khong thu hiit duoc cac ngan hang di vay qua thi trudng md.
CPJ thang 7 tSng 2.22'i so v&i thang 12/2011. kha nSng lam phat ca nSm d^t T"/ la hoan toan CO the xay ra. Chinh vi vay, miic lai suat huy dgng giam xuong S'^'r va muc san lai su&'t cho vay d 129r nkm trong kha nang thuc hi$n cua cac ngin hang. Quyet tam cung co thanh khoan, giam lai suSi & ca thi trudng 1 va 2 ciia NHNN se lam giam chi phi von, kich thich san xuat hoi phuc, ho trqt tSng trudng tin diing trong ntia cuoi nam nay, tuy nhien cung can phai tranh viec tang trudng don vao nhiing thang cuoi nSm de viia dam bao muc tieu tang trudng, vda khong de lam phat quay trd lai. Viec NHNN dua ra nhiing bien phap xii ly nff xau va diSu hanh lai suat theo lam phat muc tieu se co tac dung khffi thong dong von, tao dieu kien de dang hffn cho cac doanh nghiep tiep can.
Thi trirang n g o a i h6\
Thi trudng ngoai hoi trong thang 7 ciing nhu 7 thang dau nam 2012 ludn on dinh vdi du t n i ngoai hoi cua Viet Nam tSng hun 10 ty USD trong 6 thang dau nam 2012, xuat khau tang trudng vdi miic tang 22%, trong khi nhap khau giam. Vdi muc tieu kidm che lam phat, dn dinh kinh te vi mo, tang trudng va phat t n e n ben viing, trong nhiing thang tdi se khd cd su dot bien tren thi trudng ngoai hoi trong nudc.
Tai thi trudng trong nudc, ty
eu d o l : Dien bien thay doi
Hpudn' Tfag birp
gia binh quan tren thi trudng lien ngan hang trong thang 7 van on dinh d miic 20.828 ddng/USD. Ty gia tran cho cac NHTM la 21.036 ddng/USD. | Trong thang, VND tang gia nhg so vdi USD do du trd ngoai hoi tdt htm. Theo dd, dir t n i ngo^i hdi da cai thi^n dang ke tu 9 ty USD nam 2011 len 19 ty USD vao cudi thang 6/2012. Ngoai ra, su chenh lech giiia lai suat huy dgng VND va USD vdi ty gia hdi doai on dinh khuye'n khich cac nha dau tu chuyen doi USD sang VND.
Tham hut thuffng mai 6 thang dau nam 2012 giam xud'ng con 158 tneu USD, tucmg ducmg 0,3% tdng kim ngach xuat khau. Kim ngach xuat khau td dau nam den nay dat 53,33 ty USD, tang 22,7'/c trong khi kim ngach nhap khau tang cham hem 6,3%, chi dat 53,49 ty USD.
Tham hut thuong mai thap hon Cling tac dong tich cue den ty gia trong nudc. Ty gia hdi doai dn dinh se giiip NHNN cd ctf hgi tiep tuc tang du trii ngoai hdi.
Ngoai ra, viec it phii thupe horn vao ddng USD giiip Viet Nam nang cao kha nang tra ngf nudc ngoai va hd trff tien VND trong dai han.
Thj trudng v d n g
Trong thang 7, gia vang
trong nudc dao dgng xung quanh ngudng 42 tri^u ddng/lugng theo ciing dien bien di ngang cua gia vang qudc te, vdi lUtfng giao dich tha'p. Cd thdi diem vang trong nudc bien dpng tang giam lien tuc chii yeii bdi tac dpng ciia gia vang the gidi.
Vdi chinh sach dn dinh ty gia ngoai hdi trong nudc, sii giam sat chat cha ciia NHNN ddi vdi thj trudng vang la nhiing yeii td cho thay thi trudng vang trong nudc se ngay cang dn dinh hffn va khd cd nhiing dgt bien trong thdi gian tdi.
Gia vang trong nudc thang 7/2012 chiu tac dpng chinh tii thi trudng vang the gidi vdi bien dpng tang gia vao dau va cudi thang, giam gia vao giai doan giiia thang. Trong thang 7, gia vang trong nudc len cao nhat t?i miic 42,25 trieu ddng/lugng vao ngay 4/7 va tha'p nhat tai 41,64 tri^u ddng/lucmg ngay 12/7.
Trong thang, do gia vang it bien dgng nen lUtfng giao dich mua va ban vang ludn d miic thap.
Chenh lech giiia gia vang qudc te va trong nudc khoang 1,5 trieu ddng/lugmg. Nhiing dau hieu cua su phi^c hdi ciia thi trudng chiing khoan (TTCK) va bat dgng san (BDS) trong nudc Cling la nguyen nhan khi^n d6ng tien dich chuyen tii thi trudng vang sang cac thi trudng tren.
Ngoai tac dgng tii sU sut giam ciia gia vang the gidi, cac quydt dinh va thdng tu lien quan dan thi trudng vang dUtfc ap dung ciing la nguyen nhan khidn gia vang giam.
Thi t r u o n g chung khodin Trong thang 7, TTCK Vift Nam tiep tuc cho thay tam ly
CHUNG KHOAN VIET NAM So 166 - Thang 8/2012
DIEN BAN TAI CHiNH - TIEN TE - NGAN HANG r - i f f l w i i T ^
than trpng cu ^ gio din tu trong bo tanh cac thdng ti i mo dudng nhu da ba 1 a
Trong hai tuan giao dich da ua thang 7. th t ^ dien bien gian^, co trong bien dp hep trong boi canh cac thong tin trai cbieu lien tuc duov ctint; b(i. O luan I giao dich dau ti(?n cua (in>
! III/2012, thi truong don nhan I khong it thong tin kha tieu cue nhu gia dien va nUffc tiing. chi s(i siic mua san xuat PMl ciia \'iet Nam tiep tuc sut giam. Da giam sau dd con tiep tuc sau khi thdng tin tang truong tin dung tinh den 12/6 kha thap duoc cong bd.
Tuy nhien, trong giai doan nay.
thi trudng ciing ghi nhiin nhiing phan ling tich cue cua cac nha d^u tu trudc thdng tin ve viec giam tran jai suat cho vay vm cac khoan no' cu xuong toi da I 15%. Thanh khoan trong nhiing I phien hoi phuc nay dup'c cai
thien dang ke.
Trong tuan giao dich liep theo, thi trudng hoi phuc v(h su tang kha cua ca 2 san. VN Index
iD4lf,^fiHffi^^li|V,.^,!.|
llill Hill Hill lllll V
III ml lllll lllll
va IINX Index Ihicl lap dmh Ifdiig thang 7 van ngay li)/7 n nufc 428.38 diem va 72.9;i diciii Nhii^u cring ty chiing khoan va BDS ban cao lai trong 6 thang dan nam da tac ddng tich cUc lOn thi truimg trong giai doan nay.
Sir tang truting cua nhdm nganh tai chinh, BDS trd thanh yeu td dan dat da tang ciia thi trudng va thu hiit dong ti^n quay trd lai tuong doi manh. Ciing voi diem so, thanh khoan cung ghi nhan sii cai thien dang k&.
Trong tuan giao dich cu6i cung. xu hu(rng giam diem dien ra chu dao do thi truong thieu thong tin h("i tro'. Them vao do.
cac bao cao ket qua kinh doanh khnng kha quan cua khdi doanh nghiep niem yet gay ra tac dpng khong nho di^'n su suy giam cua
Cii hiii chi sd trong giai doan nay. Diem sd ttep tut giam xudng kem theo thanh khoan yeu dan. Hau het cac nbom nganh deu .suy giam diing ke.
'IVuii ly nha d;iu tU trd Men I han trong va de dat,
rrah VK-I Nam Ircivj: thniiji 7 nhin cluing v;'in fitn irnnfi linh irang dm dain.
'I'hi inimig dang kha bao boa ve nun Ihonii tin va gi&i dau tu dung than trong cb& dot nhuDg tm hii^u ro ranghoTi tiikmb te vi mo. Trong ngnn )inn. co the nhan dinh kmh le \7i'f Nam chua CO hu'dc chuyen bien manh me, cac van de ton dgng cua nen kinh te chua the duac giai quyet.
Chi so gia tieu dung (CPI) va m lie nhap sieu giam xuong la tin bieu dang mijng, nbung d mot khia canb khac. no cbo thay nbu aiu tieu thu trong nu&c dang giam Slit va ia yeu to' can trd muc tieu tang trU&ng trong tb&i gian tdi. Gein day, thong tm tang gia xang dau, gia gas da tac dong tieu cue t&i tam ly nba dau tu. Viec dieu cbinb tang gia xang. gia gas ciing se khien mot so nganh. doanb nghiep them kbo kban. Qua trinb phuc hoi ciia doanb nghiep se can tbem nbiSu tlioi gian khi ma trong thdi gian qua, nhieu doanb ngbiep boat dong kem bieu qua do dua qua nbieu vao von vay va CO' cau tai cbinb khong lanh manh. Trong kbi do. mat bang lai suat cho vay tbuc te'con vuot qua kba nang ciia doanb nghiep va tinh binh tieu tbu hang tdn kho con gap nhieu kho khan v&i sue can yeu nbu bien nay. ®
So!66- ThJngS/P.OlZ C HUNG KHI >.'
