Phan ttch he so Gini theo nguon thu nhqp d Viet Norn giai doqn 2002 - 2012
T R A N QUANG TUYEN
S d i vie't nghien cihi mdi quan he giiia cdc ngudn thu nhap va bdt binh ddng thu nhap d Viet Nam trong thdi gian ti£ 2002-2012. Vdi bo dU lieu khao sdt mitc sdng ho gia dinh cdc nam 2006-2012, s^ dung phUcfng phdp phdn tach he so'Gini ve bdt binh ddng thu nhap vd di/a vdo Mt qud nghien citu thUc nghiem, bdi viet diXa ra bdng chiing thitc nghiem mdi ve dong gop va tdc dong cua cdc ngudn thu nhap tdi bdt binh ddng trong cdc ndm gan ddy, dong thdi di xuat mot sdgdi y chinh sdch giup ndng cao mi2c sdng ngiidi dan trong khi khong Idm. gia tdng ddng ke tinh trang bdt binh ddng ve phdn phdi thu nhdp 6 Viet Nam.
1. Gicfi t h i § u
Bang chUng thiic te' eho tha'y viec t h a m gia vao cac boat ddng phi ndng nghiep, bao gdm viec lam cdng an lUdng va tU lam, cd tac dpng tdi giam ddi ngheo va n a n g cao cha't lupng cudc sdng eho rapt bd p h a n Idn cae hd gia dinh Viet N a m (Ngan h a n g T h e gidi-WB, 2012). Ty le vide lam phi ndng nghiep d ndng t h d n da t a n g tii 20% n a m 2001 len tdi 40% vao n a m 2011 va k h o a n g 37% trong tdng so' hd d ndng t h d n cd n g u d n t h u n h d p chinh tU hoat dpng phi ndng nghiep (Tong cue Thdng ke-GSO, 2011a).
B a n g chUng tU nghien cUu k i n h te' lUdng cua Van de Walle va C r a t t y (2004) eho tha'y k h a n a n g rdi vao t i n h t r a n g ddi ngheo eao hdn n h i e u vdi cac hd k h d n g t h a m gia vao boat ddng phi ndng nghiep tU lam. Ben canh do, P h a m va cpng sii (2010) Ude t i n h rflng, t i n h t r u n g b i n h va giU nguyen cac n h a n to' khac khdng doi, mdt hd gia d i n h ehuyen tU mdt ddn vi san xua't t h u a n ndng sang mdt ddn vi s a n xud't t h u a n phi ndng se gia t a n g t h e m mUe chi tieu binh q u a n t r e n d a u ngUdi, va ket qua n a y cd xu hUdng t d n g deu theo thdi gian.
Tuy nhien, trong khi da d a n g hda t h u n h a p theo cac ngudn phi ndng nghiep cd tac ddng tich cUe tdi giam ngheo va cai t h i e n t h u n h a p cho hd gia dinh, q u a t r i n h n a y lai
l a m eho gia t a n g b a t b i n h d a n g t h u nhSp.
S\t d u n g cae bd dii lieu tii h a i cudc dieu tra mUc sd'ng hd gia d i n h Viet N a m (VHLSS) cac n a m 1993 va 1998 va phUdng phap p h a n t a c h h e so' Gini ba't dinh dang theo n g u d n t h u n h a p , G a l l u p (2002) chi r a rang, t h u n h a p tU viec l a m edng a n lUdng ddng gdp vao h e sd' Gini ve t h u n h a p vdi mUc do tUdng dUdng so vdi cac n g u d n t h u n h a p phi ndng n g h i e p k h a c (chu ye'u la t h u nhap tii d o a n h n g h i e p hd gia d i n h va cae khoan thu n h a p t u tien giii ve eua ngUdi t h a n trong va ngoai nUdc). B e n c a n h do, n g h i e n ciiu nay chi r a r a n g , t h u n h a p tU ndng nghiep la n g u d n duy nha't lam giam ba't binh dang t h u n h a p . S\i d u n g bd dii lieu tU cudc dieu t r a mUc sd'ng bp gia d i n h Viet N a m nSm 2002 va 2004 vdi phUdng p h a p nghien cdu gid'ng vdi G a l l u p (2002), C a m va Akita (2008) cung t h u dUdc mot sd' ke't qua nhil t r e n . Nghien cUu ciia h a i tac gia nay cho t h a y t h u n h a p n d n g n g h i e p l a m giam tinh t r a n g ba't b i n h dang, t r o n g k h i dd t h u nhfip t u b o a t ddng phi ndng n g h i e p tU lam v&
n g u d n t h u n h a p k h a c ngoai lao ddng lam gia t a n g ba't b i n h d a n g . Xu hUdng tUdng tii eiing dUde p h a t hien t r o n g n g h i e n ciiu cua N g a n h a n g T h e gidi q u a viec sii d u n g bp dii Trfin Quang Tuye^n, TS., Tnrcmg dai hoc Kinh t^, Dai hpc Qudc gia Ha Nfli.
14
Ptian tich he sd Gini
heu VHLSS eac nam 2004 va 2010 (WB, 2012).
Hdn niia, n g h i e n ciiu ciia Ngan h a n g T h e gidi (2012) con p h a t hi$n r a r a n g t h u n h a p tir h o a t dpng ndng nghi$p ed vai trd q u a n t r p n g nha't t r o n g viec giam t h i e u c h e n h lech t h u n h a p nhUng vai trd n a y da giam d^n tii n a m 2004 tdi n a m 2010.
Viec tdng q u a n t a i lidu ndi t r e n cho tha'y hien cdn t h i e u cac nghidn ciiu cung ca'p b a n g chUng vi ba't b i n h d i n g do ngudn t h u n h a p cac n a m g^n day d Viet N a m . Cu t h e , vdi d e lieu s i n cd, c h u n g t a ed t h e t i n h t o a n ba't b i n h d a n g theo ngudn t h u n h a p cae n a m 2006, 2008 va 2012. Hdn nUa, hien chUa cd cdng t r i n h nao nghien ciiu ba't binh d a n g theo nguon t h u n h a p d Vidt N a m mdt each lien tuc t r o n g mdt k h o a n g thdi gian dai hdn de lam rd dupc xu hudng ddng gdp va xu hudng tac ddng ciia cae ngudn t h u n h a p khac n h a u tdi ba't binh ddng trong t h a p ky qua. Day chinh la ly do de tac gia thiic hidn nghien ciiu nay. Bai vie't nay sii d u n g phUdng p h ^ p p h a n tach hd sd' Gini theo nguon t h u n h a p (Gini decomposition by income source) vdi bd dU lieu khao s a t mUc scTng hd gia dinh Viet Nam cae n a m 2006, 2008, 2010 va 2012. Ben canh dd, tac gia Cling sii d u n g cac p h a t hien nghien eUu trUdc do de xem xdt tac ddng eiia tUng ngudn t h u n h a p tdi b a t binh dang trong mdt t h a p ky q u a d Viet N a m . Do vay, edng t r i n h nghien nay ed nhflng ddng gdp mdi ve m a t khoa hoc nhU sau: thU nhd't, nghien eflu nay cung ca'p cac bang chUng thiie nghiem mdi ve mdi q u a n he gifla ngudn t h u n h a p va ba't binh d a n g t h u n h a p d Viet Nam trong thdi gian gan day; thU hai, t h d n g qua viec nghien eflu ba't binh dang theo ngudn t h u n h a p t r o n g vdng 10 n a m qua, bai viet chi r a xu hudng ddng gdp cung n h u xu h u d n g tac ddng ciia eac ngudn t h u n b ^ p k h a c n h a u tdi ba't binh d a n g d Viet Nam t r o n g t h a p ky qua. Cac p h a t hien nghien eflu nky se gdp p h ^ n n a n g cao sU hieu bid't ve ba't binh d a n g t h u n h a p . cd tac di^ng hflu ich cho boat ddng p h a n tich chfnh sach kinh te, thie't ke cac chUdng
t r i n h giam ngheo va binh d a n g xa hdi d Viet N a m .
2. P h i f d n g p h a p n g h i e n c i i u 2.1. Nguon da lieu
Nghien cUu n a y sii d u n g dfl lieu tfl k h a o s a t mUe sd'ng hd dinh d Viet N a m (Tdng cue Thd'ng ke thiie hien) cac n a m 2006, 2008, 2010 va 2012. Trong nghien cUu nay, t h u n h a p b i n h q u a n hd gia dinh va cac ngudn t h u n h a p dupc t i n h toan tU m a u k h a o s a t hd gia dinh dai dien cho 64 tinh, t h a n h eua ea nUdc. Day ciing la ngudn dfl lieu tin cay dUdc Chinh p h u Viet N a m va n h i e u td chUe qud'c td' sii d u n g dd t i n h toan cac chi so' ciing n h u p h u c v u muc tieu nghien eflu, hoach dinh, b a n b a n h eac ehinh sach va thie't ke'cae ehUdng t r i n h giam ngheo.
2.2. Phuang phdp phdn tich dU lieu Bat binh dang t h u n h a p cd t h e dUdc do ludng theo nhieu phUdng p h a p khac n h a u (Babatunde, 2008). Trong eac phUdng p h a p dd, he so' Gini dUdc sii d u n g phd bie'n nha't de do ludng bat binh dang p h a n phdi t h u n h a p , tieu dung va cac ehi sd' phuc Idi khac (Ldpez-Feldman, 2006), Bai vie't nay ap dung each tiep can nghien cUu ciiaVan Den Berg va Kumbi (2006) de p h a n tich md'i quan he giUa ngudn t h u n h a p va ba't binh dang, vdi viec sii dung phUdng p h a p p h a n tach he sd' Gini theo ngudn t h u n h a p (Lerman va Yitzhaki, 1985; Shorrocks, 1982).
L e r m a n va Yitzhaki (1985) da p h a t trien ket qua nghien cUu cua Shorrocks (1982) va chi r a r a n g be sd' Gini cua bat binh dang t h u n h a p (G) ed t h e dUde bieu thi n h u sau:
^ = 2fe=i-5^ G^. fi^ Qj Trong dd S^ la ty le eua nguon t h u n h a p k t r o n g tdng t h u n h a p , G^ la he sd' Gini eua p h a n phdi t h u n h a p tfl ngudn t h u n h a p k, va i?;i la md'i q u a n he giUa t h u n h a p tfl ngudn k va p h a n phdi cua tdng t h u n h a p ( R . = C<,v{y^,F(,,}/C<^{y;„F(^„}) ^^^^^ ^,.
^ " ^ i " w J la hiep phKdng sai cua so luong thu n h a p tuC nguon t h u nhap k va thil hang
NghiincOuKinht6s6435- Tn6ng8/2014 15
Phan tich he sdGini
cua tdng t h u nhap; Coviyj^.F^j^^jla hipp phUdng sai ciia sd lUdng t h u n h a p tfl nguon t h u n h a p k va thfl h a n g t h u n h a p cua ngudn k (Adams, 1991).
Ci = GkRk dupc biet n h u la ty le tdp t r u n g eua ngudn t h u n h a p k, trong khi do W* la ty le hay ddng gdp cua ngudn t h u n h a p k tdi tdng ba't binh dang (G) dUdc bieu thi la:
W'fc^C^fcGAVG (2) Theo Adams (1991) thi ty le t a p t r u n g tUdng ddi eua ngudn t h u n h a p k trong tdng ba't binh d i n g dUde tinh bang cdng thUc sau:
^"^ G G (3) Neu gk> 1 thi nguon t h u n h a p k se lam gia tang ba't binh dang; neu gk < 1 thi ngudn t h u nhap k se lam giam ba't binh dang; va neu gk = 1 thi ngudn thu n h a p k se khdng cd tac dpng tdi bat binh dang (Adams,1991; WB, 2012).
Ldpez-Feldman (2006) chi r a rang tac ddng cua mdt ngudn t h u n h a p nao dd tdi tdng ba't binh dang phu thude vao ba yeu to: ty trpng cua ngudn thu nhap do trong td'ng t h u n h a p (iSJ; mUc dp binh d i n g trong phan phdi ciia ngudn t h u nhap dd (G*); md'i quan he giiia t h u nhap tfl nguon k va tdng t h u n h a p {Rj).
Neu mdt ngudn t h u n h a p ddng gdp p h a n Idn vao tdng thu nhap, nd cd the ed tae ddng dang ke tdi ba't binh dang. Tuy nhien ne'u ngudn t h u n h a p nay p h a n phd'i hoan toan binh dang thi nd khdng the tac ddng tdi ba't binh dang. Ne'u mdt ngudn t h u n h a p chie'm ty trpng Idn va phan phd'i ba't binh dang, nd cd the lam tang hoac giam ba't binh dang va dieu dd tuy thude vao ngudn t h u n h a p do dupc p h a n phd'i tap t r u n g cho ngUdi giau hay ngUdi ngheo. Neu mot ngudn t h u n h a p cd phan phd'i bat binh dang va t a p t r u n g vao nhflng hd giau cd thi ngudn t h u n h a p nay se lam gia tang ba't binh dang. NgUpc lai, ne'u ngudn t h u n h a p do tuy phan phd'i ba't binh dang nhung tap t r u n g ve phia ngUdi ngheo thi ngudn t h u nhap dd cd the lam giam ba't binh dang (Ldpez-Feldman, 2006). Trong nghien ciiu nay, p h a n mem STATA phien
b a n 11 dupe s i d u n g di ti'nh t o a n cae chi e&
n e u t r e n ' . B e n canh dd, p h i n m e m Excel dUde sLt d u n g d^ lap eac b a n g bieu minh hoa ve x u hudng v a n ddng cua cae chi so ndi tren.
3. Ket q u a t i n h t o a n v a t h a o l u a n Trong cac nghien cUu trUde day ve phan t a c h ba't b i n h d a n g theo ngudn t h u nhap h Viet N a m , t h u n h a p hd gia dinh thUdng dUdc p h a n chia theo eac ngudn khac nhau, bao gdm t h u n h a p tfl l a m cdng an lUdng, thu n h a p t u viec lam phi ndng nghiep tU lam, thu n h a p tfl ndng nghiep va cac ngudn t h u nh|ip k h i e (Adger, 1999; Cam va Akita, 2008;
Gallup, 2002). Day cung la each p h a n chia cd b a n ve" ngudn t h u n h a p eiia ho gia dinh dU^c Tdng cue Thd'ng ke sk d u n g de p h a n tich ve ed ca'u t h u n h a p cua hd gia dinh trong cac bao cao ke't qua dieu t r a mUc sd'ng hd gia dinh^. D u a theo each p h a n chia nay, bai vig't cung p h a n chia ngudn t h u n h a p eua ho gia dinh theo bdn ngudn sau day (bang 1).
BANG 1: T h u n h a p h o g i a d i n h theo c a c n g u o n k h a c n h a u Nguon
l.NOng nghiep
2. Phi nflng nghiSp tu
lam 3.T11U nhap tii viec lam cflng an luong (tien cflng)
4.'niu nhap khac
Mfl ta nguon thu nhap tir cac cong viec
Viec tu lam cua hfl gia dinh trong trong trot, chan nuoi, thuy san, lam nghiep, san bat va thuSn dudng dflng vat, va cac hoat dflng djch vu nOng nghifip.
Viec lam X\i lam trong ciia thanh vifin hfl gia dinh va cua ho gia dinh trong cac hoat dflng phi nOng nghiSp.
Vi6c lam cong an luong cua cac thanli vien hfl trong khu vuc nha nuflc, tit nhan, nudc ngoai va cac td chiic khac.
Thu nhap tilr cac ngudn khac ngoM ba ngufln neu tren nhu thanh toan chuyen nhuong til Chi'nh phu hay ur nh^n, thu nhap tit tien giii, cho thue nha va dS't,..- Nguon: Tong hop cua tac gia tir Cam va Akita (2008)
va GSO (2010, 2013a).
1 Cach tinh loan cac chi sfl' phan t^ch Gini theo nguon ihu nhap bang p h i i mSm STATA cfl th^ lha»
khao tai lieu cua Lopez-Feldman (2006).
2. Xem them tai http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.asiHt tabid=444&idmid=5
16 Nghiin cOu Kinh t^s(S435 - Thing 8/20**
Phdn tich he stf 6ini..,
Bang 2 t r i n h bay ket qua p h a n tach hd 50*
Gini ve b a t binh dang theo ngudn t h u n h a p cac n a m tH 2002 tdi 2012. D l de theo ddi hdn xu hiidng v a n ddng ciia cae chi sd 6 bang 2, tac gia da lap h i n h 1 (cd ca'u t h u n h a p eua hp), h i n h 2 (gia tri h e sd' Gini), hinh 3 (ddng gdp vao ba't binh dang theo ngudn t h u nhap) va h i n h 4 (tac ddng cua nguon t h u n h a p vao ba't binh dang). Ve cd ca'u ngudn t h u n h a p , H I N H 1: C d c a u t h u n h a p c u a
hinh 1 cho tha'y ty trpng t h u n h a p tii ndng nghiep da giam m a n h va ddng thdi ty trong t h u n h a p tii viec lam edng da t a n g dang ke trong thdi gian 2002-2012. Ty trpng t h u n h a p tii boat ddng phi ndng nghiep tii giam 2 diem ph^n t r a m thdi ky tren. Trong khi dd, ty trpng t h u n h a p tii cac ngudn khac da t a n g dang ke vao cac n a m 2004 va 2006 va sau dd giam dang ke cac n a m gan day.
h o g i a d i n h g i a i d o a n 2002-2012
1,0-1 0,9-
& 0,8- f 0,7- t 0,6-
•s 0,5-
1 0,4-
3!- 0 , 3 -
•^ 0,2 • 0,1 •
Q Ndng nghiSp
-.-_-_-.
F- W\
M
0,18
0,3
0,22
0,3
• - - , - 1 - j 1 j j
i
D Phi n6ng nghidp
0,24
- 0,28
1 0,21
; 0,27
^
0,225
0,305
0,208
0,262
m
, : ! :
a Tien cong
0,217
0,311
0,205
0,267
.-_-_-_-
» »
-r!
^
0,163
0,407
0,211
0,219 13 Khac
X-X-!
- » > ;
",",'"'/.
0,164
0,42
0,202
0,214
2001 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 NguSn: Tinh toSn cua tac gi
BANG 2: P h a n t a c h h e
a c^c nam 2006-2012 va tmh toan cua Cam va Akita (2008) cac nam 2002-2004.
so' G i n i ve b a t b i n h d a n g t h e o n g u d n t h u n h a p tii 2002-2012 Ngu6n thu nh$p
Ndng nghiep/n^m 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 Phi ndng nghiep tu Ikn/nSm
2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002
Ty le trong t^ng thu
nhap S, 0,214 0,219 0,267 0,262 0,270 0,300 0,202 0,211 0,205 0,208 0,210 0,220
Gini 0 , 0,72 0,72 0,67 0,64 0,61 0,58 0,85 0,85 0,85 0,83 0,83 0,83
Tuong quan vdi phan ph6'i cda tong thu nh$p R^
0,31 0,32 0,36 0,29 0,27 0,27 0,62 0,64 0,67 0,65 0,65 0,66
Dong gop vao tong bat binh dang IV.
0,120 0,116 0,146 0,120 0,120 0,110 0,262 0,266 0,266 0,280 0,280 0,310
He so tap trung tuomg
dtfig.
0,600 0,530 0,540 0,460 0,400 0,400 1,300 1,260 1,300 1,320 1,330 1,390
Afc/i«n aiu Kinh Ifsias- nOng SOOit 17
Phan tich h$ s(eini
Nguon thu nhap Thu nhap tu lam cOng (tien cfing) /nam
2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 Cac ngu6n khac/nam
2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 T6ng/nam
2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002
T j te trong tong thu nhap St 0,420 0.407 0,311 0,305 0,280 0,300 0,164 0,163 0,217 0,225 0,240 0,180 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00
Gmi
0,65 0,68 0,72 0,71 0,72 0,73 0,76 0,79 0,77 0,75 0,76 0,79 0,407 0,433 0,437 0407 0,410 0,390
Tuong quan vdi phan phoi ciia tong thu nhap R^
0,66 0,69 0,64 0,61 0,59 0,61 0,57 0,62 0,68 0,67 0,72 0,65
Dong gop vao tdng bat binh ding W,
0,443 0,436 0,327 0,320 0,290 0,340 0,175 0,182 0,261 0,280 0,320 0,240 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00
He so tap trung tuong
doig, 1,054 1,071 1,050 1,060 1,040 1,113 1,072 1,127 1,210 1,230 1,350 1,300
Ngudn: Ti'nh toan cua tac gia cac nam 2006-2012 dita 2004 tii Cam va Akita (2008). Tinh toin Hinh 2 cho tha'y he sd Gini t h u n h a p la 0,407 vao n a m 2012, tha'p hdn so miic 0,433 nam 2010 va miie 0,437 n a m 2008. Dieu dd eho tha'y miie dp ba't binh dang trong p h a n phd'i t h u n h a p eua eac hd gia dinh Viet Nam da giam nhe trong thdi ky tii n a m 2008 tdi nay. Kd't qua tUdng tii ciing dUde p h a n a n h trong phan phd'i ve chi tieu khi he so' Gini chi tieu giam tii 0,393 n a m 2010 xud'ng cdn 0,356 vao n a m 2012 (GSO, 2013b). Ve p h a n phoi eiia tiing ngudn t h u nhap, hinh 2 eho tha'y gia tri cua he sd Gini theo tiing ngudn t h u n h a p Idn hdn k h a nhieu so vdi gia tri he so' Gini cua tdng t h u n h a p . Dieu nay b a t ngudn tii thiic te' la ed nhieu hd ehi tap t r u n g vao mdt boat ddng kinh te' nha't dinh va do vay hp se khdng ed hoac cd it t h u n h a p tii cac ngudn khac. Chinh vi vay, p h a n phd'i ciia tiing ngudn t h u n h a p se bat binh dang bdn
theo da lieu tCr VHLSS 2006-2012. Ti'nh toan cSc nSm 2002 vi dua trgn miic thu nhap binh quan/ngir6i/nam.
so vdi p h a n phd'i eua tdng t h u n h a p . Hinh 2 cho tha'y ngudn t h u n h a p tii ndng nghidp nay cang dUde p h a n phd'i ba't binh dang hdn, the hien q u a vide gia t a n g gia tri cua he so' Groi til 0,58 n a m 2002 len 0,72 n a m 2012. Dieu do cd the dupc ly giai do da't ndng nghiep ngay cang dUde p h a n phd'i ba't binh dang hdn (GSO, 2013b) do q u a t r i n h tich t u va tap t r u n g rudng da't trong san xua't ndng nghie|^
thdi gian qua. Ngudn t h u n h a p tii phi nong nghiep tii lam ludn dUde p h a n phd'i it cong b a n g n h a t va miic dp b a t binh dang gan nhil khdng t h a y ddi trong thdi ky 2OO2-2012.
Tudng tii, t h u n h a p tii cac ngudn khac cung cd miic dp b a t binh dang eao va hin rM khdng t h a y ddi trong ciing thdi gian tren.
Sau cilng, miic dp binh dang dupc cai thifin dang ke trong p h a n phd'i t h u n h a p tit lam cdng an lUdng khi he sd' Gini eiia ngudn thu
18 Nghiin ciiu Kinh tgsS435 - Thing 8/201*
Phan lich he so Gini
nhdp aky da giam trong thdi gian gin day va c6 gia t r i t h a p n h a t vao n a m 2012.
HINH 2: H e s o Gini t o n g t h u n h a p v a t h e o n g u o n t h u n h a p g i a i d o a n 2002-2012 1,0
0,8
•s 0,6
i 0,4 . 0,2 - 0,0
*
2002 a
= * =
2004
= « =
2006 M
— M j^
2008
C3
2010 o
= »
2012
nghiSp
— Q — Phr nong nghigp
— * — T i e n cdng
—»<—Thunhgp khac
— • - T6ng thu
Nguon: Ti'nh toSn cua tac gia cac nam 2006-2012 va ti'nh toan ciia Cam va Akita (2008) cac nam 2002-2004.
N h u da p h a n tich d muc 2.2, viec sii dung phUdng p h a p p h a n tach hd so Gini theo ngudn t h u n h a p cho phdp chiing ta biet diidc: thU nhdt, miic dp ddng gdp eua tiing ngudn t h u n h a p va tdng ba't binh dang; thiC hai, ngudn t h u n h a p nao se lam t a n g hay giam hoac khdng t h a y doi tdng bd't binh d^ng. Hinh 3 cho tha'y t h u n h a p tii lam cdng ddng gdp n h i l u nha't vao he sd' Gini va miie dp ddng gdp nay gia t a n g theo thdi gian tcf 2002-2012. Didu nay cd t h e dupc giai thich r a n g do ngudn t h u n h a p tii vide lam edng an
luong ngay cang chie'm ty trong cao trong tdng t h u n h a p . Tuy nhien, h i n h 4 cho tha'y t h u n h a p tii lam cdng cd tae ddng kha nhd tdi ba't binh d&ng so vdi t h u n h a p tir phi ndng nghiep tii lam va t h u n h a p khac, thd hien d gia tri ciia chi sd'^^ Idn hdn 1 ra't it trong thdi gian tif 2004-2012. Dieu nay ed the dupc ly giai rang, mac dii ngudn t h u n h a p nay chie'm ty trpng Idn nha't, nhung lai ed p h a n phd'i k h a binh dang hdn eac ngudn khac n h u phi ndng nghiep tii lam va t h u n h a p khac.
HINH 3: T y le d o n g g o p v a o t o n g b a t b i n h d a n g (Gini) c u a c a c n g u o n t h u n h a p g i a i d o a n 2002-2012
•E 0,9- (9 0,8
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0,26 0,12 2012 Ngudn • Tinh todn cua tic gia c5c nam 2006-2012 va tinh toan cua Cam vS Akita (2008) cac nam 2002-2004.
Nghiin CAJ Kinh t^s6435 - Thing 8/2014 19
Phan tich he so Gini
HINH 4: T a c d o n g c u a c a c n g u o n t h u n h a p v a o t o n g b a t b i n h d a n g (Gini) g i a i dojin 2002-2012
- Phi ndng nghiep
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Ghi chu: gi-l: khong tac dong t6i Gmi; g^ >I: tang Gini vhgt<l: giam Gmi.
Nguon. Ti'nh toan cua tac gia cac nam 2006-2012 va tinh toan ciia Cam va Akita (2008) cac nam 2002-2004.
Hinh 3 cho thliy t h u nhap td phi ndng nghiep tii lam ddng gdp nhieu thii hai vao tdng bat binh dang va hinh 4 ehi r a r a n g ngudn t h u nhap nay lam gia tang dang ke ba't binh dang bdi gia tri g/, ludn ed gia tri t r u n g binh Idn nha't trong thdi ky 2002-2012. Ly do la vi ngudn thu nhap nay tuy chie'm ty trpng khdng nhieu nha't trong tdng t h u n h a p nhUng lai cd miie dp phan phdi bat binh dang nha't va ngudn thu nhdp nay phan phd'i t a p t r u n g ve phia cae hd gia dinh kha gia hdn (R/, ed gia tri tUdng doi cao). Hinh 3 va 4 cho tha'y miic dp ddng gdp vao tong ba't binh dang cua ngudn t h u nhap khac da giam 6 diem p h a n t r a m tii n a m 2002 tdi nam 2012 va tac ddng lam gia tang ba't binh dang ciia ngudn nay da giam dan va xud'ng tha'p nha't vao nam 2012. Dd la vi ty trpng ciia ngudn t h u n h a p khac trong tdng thu nhap giam dan trong thdi gian tren (hinh 1) va ngudn t h u n h a p ndy ngay cang phan phdi tap trung cho eac hp ngheo hdn (Rf, cua ngudn nay giam dan) trong thdi ky tren.
Sau Cling, hinh 3 cho tha'y ddng gdp vao tdng bat binh dang ciia ngudn t h u n h a p ndng nghiep gan nbu khdng thay ddi trong thdi ky 2002-2012. Tuy nhien hinh 4 chi ra r a n g ngudn t h u nhap ndng nghiep lai lam giam manh bat binh dang vi he sd'^^ ludn cd gia tri nhd hdn 1 ra't nhieu trong thdi ky nay. He so' tifdng quan giiia ngudn thu n h a p ndng nghiep
va tdng t h u n h a p ludn cd gia tri thap nhS^t so vdi cae ngudn khac va dieu dd chi ra r ^ g ngudn t h u n h a p nay t a p t r u n g ve phia cac ho gia dinh ngheo hdn. Tuy nhien tac dpng lam giam ba't binh dang eua ngudn nay da giam dan bdi gia tri g/, t a n g tir 0,4 n a m 2002 len 0,6 n a m 2012. Dieu n a y cd t h e dUdc ly giai rling ty trpng ciia ngudn t h u n h a p ndng nghiep tuy giam dang ke nhiing miic dp ba't binh dang ciia ngudn n a y da t a n g m a n h trong thdi 1^
tren.
Ve cd ban, p h a t hien trong nghien citu eua tae gia ddng t h u a n vdi cac nghien ciiu tntdc day eua Gallup (2002), Cam va Akita (2008) va WB (2012) khi cac nghien citu nay eho thliy trong khi t h u n h a p ndng nghiep lam giam h&
binh dang, t h u n h a p td phi ndng nghiep tti lam va cac ngudn khac lam gia tang ba't binh dang t h u n h a p d Viet N a m . Bo sung them cho cac phat hien nghien ciiu eua Cam va Akita (2008) vao n a m 2002 va 2004, nghien ciiu nky chi r a r a n g ngudn t h u n h a p tii lam cdng Sn lUdng Men dang ddng gdp nhieu nha't vao tdng bat binh dang, do ngudn nay chie'm ty trong cao nha't trong t h u nhap. Tuy nhien, ngu5n t h u n h a p tic lam cdng a n lUdng lai khdng \kJS ba't binh ddng gia t a n g nhie'u trong thdi )s^
2004-2012. Hdn niia, nghien ciiu nay chi ra r a n g tac ddng lam giam ba't binh dang cua thu n h a p ndng nghiep da giam d a n trong giai
20 Nghiin aiu Kinh t^sd 435 - Thing 8/20i*
Phan tich he so Gini...
doan 2002-2012. Do vay, nhiing phat hien nay bo sung them nhiing phat hien nghien ciiu ctia WB (2012) cac n a m 2004 va 2010. Sau ciing, nghien ciiu nay chi r a rang, ngudn t h u nhap phi ndng nghiep tii lam da lam gia tang tihieu nha't tdi ba't binh d i n g . Dieu dd h a m y rang, ed hdi tiep can viec lam phi ndng nghiep tii lam tap t r u n g nhie'u hdn eho cac nhdm giau cd hdn. P h a t hien tren phan nae hd trd gia thuye't cua Adger (1999) eho rang, da dang hda t h u n h a p vao cac boat ddng phi ndng nghiep se gay ra ba't binh dang cao hdn ne'u nhiing cd hdi vide lam phi ndng nghiep dd thien lech tdi cac hd kha gia hdn.
4. K e t l u a n v a h a m y c h i n h s a c h Thdng qua viec phan tach he sd' Gini theo ngudn thu n h a p vdi viec sii dung dii lieu dieu tra ve miic sd'ng hd gia dinh trong cac nam tii 2006 tdi 2012, bai vie't nay da cung cap nhQng bang chiing thiic nghiem mdi ve" ddng gdp Cling n h u tac ddng eiia tiing nguon thu nhap tdi td'ng ba't binh dang trong cac nam g^n day.
Dac biet, vdi vide sii dung phUdng phap phan tach he sd' Gini theo ngudn t h u nhap, tae gia da ly giai dUdc nguyen nhan thay ddi ve miic dp ddng gdp va miic dp tdc ddng cua tiing ngudn t h u n h a p tdi ba't binh dang trong thap ky qua.
Nghien ciiu nay cho tha'y ngudn t h u nhap tix lam cdng ngay cang chie'm vi tri quan trpng trong sinh ke hd gia dinh. Ty le hd t h a m gia vao viec lam cdng da tang til 61% nam 2006 len 67% nam 2012'' va ty trpng thu nhap ciia lam edng trong thu n h a p ciia hd gia dinh da gia tang dang ke va ddng gdp nhieu nha't cho tdng thu n h a p hd gia dinh trong thdi gian 2002-2012. c a c bang chifng kinh te liidng da khang dinh ngudn thu nhap tii vide lam cdng cd vai trd quan trpng trong giam ngheo d Viet Nam trong thdi ky dd'i mdi (Ravallion va Van de Walle, 2008). NhU da phan tich d tren.
ngudn thu n h a p tif lam edng khdng lam gia tang dang ke bat binh dang trong thdi gian td 2002-2012. Dieu nay ham y rang cae chi'nh sach eiia Nha niidc treng khuyen khich tao viec lam, dac biet la viec lam cdng ndi chung 36 giup giam ngheo. cai thien thu nhap cho
cae hd gia (finh nhiing cd the khdng lam gia tang nhieu tdi b a t binh dang ve t h u n h a p d Viet Nam.
Ke't qua nghien ciiu cho thay ndng nghiep la ngudn duy nhat lam giam bat binh dang t h u nhap. Tuy nhien, trong bdi canh da't ndng nghiep ngay cang bi t h u hep do qud trinh dd thi hda va cdng nghiep hda, thi ty trong ciia ngudn nay trong tdng thu nhap bi giam di la khd t r a n h khdi. Can cd mdt sd' ehinh sach kha thi de giam bdt tinh trang ba't binh dang thu nhap va nang cao t h u nhap ciia ngUdi dan d cac vung ndng thdn va ven dd bi thu hdi dat ndng nghiep d Viet./.
TAI LIEU THAM K H A O
1. Adams, R. H. (199i),T/ie effects of international remittances on poverty, inequality, and development in rural Egypt' (Vol. 86) Washington D.C: Intematinal Food Policy Research Institute.
2. Adger, W N. (1999), Exploring mcome inequality in rural, coastal Viet Nam , The Journal of Development Studies. 35(5), 96-\\9.
3. Babatunde, R. O. (2008), Income inequality in Rural Nigeria: Evidence from farming households survey data , Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences.
2(1). 134-140.
4. Cam, T. V. C , and Akua, T. (2008), Urban and rural dimensions of income inequality in Vietnam. (GSIR working paper). Gradua'_e School of Intemaiional Relations, Intemational UmversUy of Japan.
5. Gallup, J. (2002), The wage labor market and inequality in Vietnam in the 1990s, World Bank Policy Research Working paper No 2896. The World Bank.
Washington. D.C.
6. GSO (2008). Section 9: Participalion in poverty reduction programs, In GSO (Ed.), The result of \urvey on household living standards 2008. Hanoi, Vietnam, Statistical Publishing House.
7. GSO (2011a), The results of the 2011 rural, agricultural and fishery cencus, Hanoi, Vietnam:
Statistical Publishing House.
8. GSO (2011b), Data results of the Viet Nam Household Living Standards Sun-ey 2010, Hanoi, Viemam: Statistical Publishing House
9. GSO (2013a). Data results of the Viei Nam Household Living Standards Suney 2012. Hanoi, Vietnam Statistical Publishing House
10.GSO. (2013b), Poverty Profile. Hanoi, Vicmam:
Staiistical Publishing House..,
3. Tfnh loan ciia tac gia lir Au heu VHLSS :006 v:i
Nghiin ciiu Kmh ti s6 435 • Thing 8/2014
