CHtNH TRI- KINH TE - XA HOI
DANH GIA TONG HOP VE SIT PHAT TRIEN CUA TRUNG QUOC TRONG THE KY XXI
ViensT M. L. TITARENKO
Vien Vien Dong, Vien Hdn ldm Khoa hoc Nga
S
U tang trfldng manh me ve kinh te va anh hfldng dia chinh tri ciia Trung Qud'c nhflng nam gan day da ngay cang cudn hut sfl chu y ciia cac chuyen gia va dfl luan the gidi. Nhflng thay ddi ngay cang sau sdc ma nflde lang gieng ciia nflde Nga trai qua 30 nam nay dang dat ra nhflng cau hdi mang tinh quy luat ve ban chat va gia tri ciia nhflng thanh tiiu, con dfldng phat trien tfldng lai cua Trung Qud'c va trien vgng quan he Nga - Trung. Tra ldi nhflng cau hdi nay khdng chi mang y nghia nhan thflc, khoa hgc ma cdn cd y nghia thflc t i l n trflc tiep ddi vdi quyen ldi quo'c t e c u a nflde Nga.NhOmg thanh tini ciia Trung Quoc
Cd the ndi nhflng thanh tiiu cua Trung Qud'c trong cac llnh vfle phat trien kinh te va xa hgi khac nhau nhflng nam gdn day la mot hien tfldng va nhan td quan trgng nha't eiia nen chinh tri the gidi va cac quan he qud'c te. Da't nflde da
cd bfldc nbay vgt manh me ve kinh te.
Tfl nam 1978 den nay GDP cda Trung Qud'c da tang len it nha't la 20 Idn va nam 2007 la 3,43 nghin ty USD. Theo chi so' nay tren thiic te Trung Qude da sanh ngang vdi Dfle vfldn len dflng hang ' thfl ba -tfl the gidi, chi sau Nhat Ban va My. GDP trung binh dau ngUdi tang len 10 Idn, tfl 260 USD nam 1978 len 2600 USD nam 2007. Sau nhflng nam cai each kim ngach ngoai thfldng cua Trung Qude tang hdn mdt tram lan tfl 20,6 ty nam 1978 len 2 nghin 170 ty USD'" va vdn gifl nguyen trang la cfldng qud'c thUdng mai thfl ba tren the gidi. Sudt nhflng nam gan day, Trung Quo'c van gifl dflde vi tri dflng dau the gidi ve du trfl vang ngoai te va nam 2007 la 1,52 nghin ty USD, tang 47% so vdi nam 2006.
Trung Qud'c la mdt trong nhflng nhan td' chinh ciia dn dinh thi trUdng tai chinh - tien te the gidi, da mua chflng khoan cua My tdng gia tri hdn 800 ty USD.
Ddng nhan dan te Trung Qud'c cd trien
NGHllN CUIU TRUNG QU6C sA 5 (93) - 2009
vgng trd thanh ngoai te chung ciia chau A. Trung Qude bien t h a n h "thdi nam cham thu hut" ngudn dau tfl nflde ngoai la ngudn dam bao cho kinh te va ngoai thfldng tang trfldng nhanh. Viec hinh thanh bau khdng khi ddu tfl thuan ldi d Trung Qude trfldc het la nhd chinh tri dn dinh, cua dfldng loi dieu tiet va dam bao cua nha nflde cflng nhfl nhflng flu dai ve khai thac ngudn tai nguyen re, chinh sach thue linh boat. Den ddu nam 2007 Trung Qude da sii dung hdn 800 ty USD dau tfl nflde ngoai, trong dd 622 ty USD la dau tfl tnic tiep va 147 ty USD cdng trai dau tu ra nUde ngoai.
Trung Qud'c chiem vi tri hang dau the gidi trong viec san xua't san pham cdng nghiep va ndng nghiep quan trgng nha't tinh theo nhflng tieu chi tuyet ddi.
Trung Qud'c trd thanh "cdng xudng the gidi" ve tai san xua't cac hang boa thdng dung theo tieu chuan chau Au, cdng xUdng lap rap cua the gidi.
Cach day khdng lau, Trung Qudc van cdn la mdt trdng nhflng nflde lac hau nha't the gidi nhflng hien nay da dflng trong hang ngu cac nflde hang ddu ve san xua't thep, than da, xi mang, may thu hinh, may tinh ca nhan, dien thoai di dgng, ddng hd, xe dap, dang tien ddn tdi ehi so' tuyet ddi ve san xua't va lap rap dtd. Theo sd' lieu cua WTO, san phdm mang nhan hieu " Made in China"
chiem 1/7 hang boa tren thi trfldng the gidi va ddng gdp tren 15% tang trfldng GDP cua the gidi.
Mflc sdng ngfldi dan tang len dang ke.
Ta't nhien la diem xua't phat ban dau
trong linh vfle nay la r a t thap. Hdn nfla, tai Trung Quo'c ngfldi dan r a t tfl hao ndi rdng 250 trieu ngUdi mdi day cdn so'ng trong ngheo khd thi nay con so' nay da giam di khoang 8 lan. It nha't la viec dam bao dUdc cai an cai mac cho mot da't nUde vdi so' dan khdng id (can nha'n manh la hoan toan dUa vao san xua't trong nUde) ddi vdi cac chuyen gia nUde ngoai tudng nhU la van de khdng the giai quyet dUde thi nay da Ifli sau vao di vang. Neu can nhae ky thi day la mot trong nhflng thanh tiiu ndi bat va gay a'n tfldng manh me nhat ciia Trung Qudc.
Mdt da't nflde chi chiem 7% da't cay trdng tren hanh tinh nhflng dem lai tdi 20%
san Ifldng ngfl cdc toan the gidi, dflng ddu the gidi ve san xua't bdng, td tam nguyen lieu, cac cay cho dau, thit, sfla, trflng. Cha't Ifldng cudc sd'ng va tinh trang sfle khoe ciia ngUdi dan dflde cai thien. Trung Qud'c gia nhap hang ngu cac qudc gia cd tudi thg eao tren the gidi.
Nam 2003 - 2006 nhip do tang trfldng trung binh GDP cua Trung Qud'c la 10,4% cao hdn 5,5% so vdi chi sd' trung binh the gidi; nhip do nay khdng giam di tham ehi cdn tang hdn vao nam 2007 (11,4%)'^'. Dieu nay cdn dflde phan anh trong ty le GDP Trung Qude chiem trong GDP the gidi. Ty le nay tang tfl 3,9%
nam 2003 len 6,1% nam 2007. Nhflng thanh cdng nay da tao cd hdi td't thflc day toan bd nen kinh te Trung Qud'c tien len phia trUdc. Trung Qud'c dan dan chiem lai vi the hang dau khdng chi la cfldng qud'c kinh te khu vfle ma la cfldng qud'c kmh te the gidi. Nhieu nha phan tich ke ca tai cac cdng ty tai chinh ngan
NGHIEN ClJfU TRUNG QUOC sd 5 (93) - 2009
Danh gia tong hgp ve si/phat trien.
hang Idn tren the gidi deu dfl kien rdng vdi nhip do tang trUdng nhanh nhU the, cho dfl trong vdng hai ba chuc nam tdi khdng phai vdi tdc do cao nhfl hien nay thi Trung Qud'c van se chiem vi the la nflde cd nen kinh te hang ddu the gidi.
Kinh nghiem ma Trung Quoc tich luy dflde trong vdng 30 nam cai each, chinh sach buy ddng tdi da nhflng flu the cua minh nham thflc hien cac muc tieu phat trien va hien dai hoa da't nflde deu cd y nghia qud'c te to Idn. Ddi vdi nUde Nga chung la mdi quan tam dang ke.
Van de hay cai gia ciia thanh cong Nhflng thanh tflu cua Trung Qud'c dUdc mgi ngfldi thfla nhan. Song ddng thdi vdi nhflng t h a n h cdng hien nhien khdng the khdng chu y tdi sii xua't hien cua hang loat van de dang ke mdi ddi vdi da't nflde. Nhflng mau thuan nghiem trgng trong phat trien chinh tri- xa hdi, kinh te va van minh ngay cang them sau sdc. Nhflng nam gan day, nhieu va'n de xa hdi va cai ggi la "5 chenh lech" la dac biet nghiem trgng:
- Tha't nghiep gia tang (gan 30 trieu ngfldi tha't nghiep tai thanh thi va 200 trieu ngfldi that nghiep tai ndng thdn);
- Ma't can ddi trong phat trien thanh thi va ndng thon;
- Chenh lech dang ke trong phat trien gifla cac vung mien Ddng va mien Tay;
- Phan hoa xa hdi ve xa hdi va tai san;
- Sfl khdng hai Idng cua ddng dao cdng chung ve an sinh xa hdi, y te va giao due.
Nhieu va'n de kinh te cu the ngay cang bdc Id mdt each rd rang. Md hinh tang trfldng kinh te theo be rdng dang thflc hien tai Trung Qud'c trong vdng nhflng thap nien gdn day deu diia tren hai yeu td': mot la, dfla tren viec sfl dung hang loat sfle lao ddng re mat va nhflng ngudn tai nguyen re hoac khdng phai tra tien de gia tang xua't khdu mdt each tdi da; hai Id, diia tren viec thu but bang mgi each tU ban nflde ngoai nham tang cfldng san xuat cac mat hang xua't khau, tiep can cac cdng nghe hien dai va tich luy ngoai te.
Tuy nhien, viec Trung Qud'c tham gia ngay cang tich ciic vao qua trinh hien dai boa va toan cau hoa ddi hdi phai sii dung lao dgng tay nghe cao chfl khdng phai la lao ddng re mat. Dieu nay ddi hdi phai dau tfl khdng nhd vao tai nguyen eon ngfldi va dieu nay cd the lam giam flu the'canh tranh eiia Trung Qudc trong tfldng lai gan. Sfl ban che ve tai nguyen thien nhien va tinh trang mdi trUdng xau di da dat ra nhflng gidi ban chat che ddi vdi viec tiep tue tnen khai tang trfldng kinh te theo be rdng.
' Nhflng toan tinh nhan dflde nhflng cdng nghe then chd't mdi nha't tfl cac nha ddu tfl nflde ngoai khdng phai luc nao cflng trd thanh hien thflc. Trung Qude phu thudc nhieu vao phUdng Tay dac biet trong linh vUc cdng nghe eao. Sd hflu tri tue cua cac cdng ty nUde ngoai trong cac nganh lien quan den cdng nghe mdi va cdng nghe cao la ddc quyen hoan toan, chiem tdi 90%. Mae dfl Trung Qudc la nflde dflng dau the gidi ve san xua't DVD, dien thoai di ddng, may tinh ca
NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 5 (93) - 2009
nhan, nhflng nflde nay khong cd cdng nghe then chd't tfl minh trien khai trong nflde.
Ngudn tfl ban nflde ngoai Idn ddn ve Trung Qud'c trUde het la nhd nhflng dieu kien dau tfl t h u a n ldi, dflde dam bao bdi bau khdng khi chinh tri dn dinh, nhd dfldng ldi quan ly kinh te nha nflde va bao hiem qud'c gia, bdi chinh sach thue linh hoat cung nhfl nhflng flu dai khac nhau giup hg tiep can dUde ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien gia re. Tuy nhien qua trinh nay cflng cd mat trai cua nd:
Tu ban nUdc ngoai mdt each gian tiep hay trflc tiep da kiem soat hdn 80%) khdi Ifldng xua't nhap k h a u cua Trung Qud'c.
Dudi sii bao trd cua hdn 500 tdng cong ty xuyen qud'c gia Idn, Trung Qud'c da bien thanh cdng xfldng toan the gidi ve san xua't cac mat hang khdng phai chinh gdc Trung Qud'c ma la lap rap theo mau nflde ngoai.
Cai gia phai tra cho mo hinh tang trfldng kinh te theo be rdng la sfl tan pha tan khde mdi trfldng sinh sd'ng cua cfl dan. Nhflng yeu to' dfldi day se chflng minh rd dieu nay. Trong nflde khdng cd du da't dai mau md cho ndng nghiep, da't hi sa mac boa hang nam len tdi 3,4 nghin km^. Sau nfla thap ky gan day tdng dien tich da't dai canh tac giam tdi 20'%. Ngoai ra cdn hang nghin ha da't cay ca'y bi lay di danh cho xay dflng nha eiia va dfldng sa. Tren thflc te, 1/5 dien tich da't nflde hi hoang hoa. Ty le da't dai cay cay hi thoai hoa d cac mfle do khac nhau len den 43%o, cdn d cac ddng cd len den 90%i. Hang nam cd tdi 2 ty tan than lUu huynh hi dot lam cho Trung Qud'c trd
thanh nUdc dflng dau the gidi ve khdi lUdng cha't dgc hai thai vao khong khi.
80%o cac hd nUde hi o nhiem. LUu viie cac con song Hoang Ha, TrUdng Giang va Chu Giang, la dia ban eU tru ciia hdn niia so' dan Trung Quo'c khdng cd kha nang tfl lam sach.
Do tang trUdng xua't khau qua cao nen trong ngoai thUdng bi ma't can doi, nam 2007 xua't sieu hdn 260 ty USD. Su gia tang qua n h a n h va ngay cang tang cua ngudn dii trfl vang ngoai te da lam giam hieu sua't ciia chinh sach tien te, tao cd de My gay sfle ep doi vdi chinh sach tien te trong nflde. Co' bao ve he tho'ng ngoai te trong nflde trfldc nhflng riii ro do ddng dola mat gia, Trung Qud'c da phai da dang hoa thanh phan ngudn dfl trfl vang, ngoai te cua minh, gia tang ty le vang dfl trfl lam cho kim loai quy nay tang gia dot nggt tren thi trfldng the gidi.
Nhflng ly do tren nha't dinh se xuat hien mot loat van de mang tinh quy luat la:
- Cd sd phat trien dai ban ciia Trung Qud'c se dn dinh den mfle nao ?
- Lieu Trung Qud'c cd dam bao dflde an ninh kinh te cua minh trong tinh trang nen kinh te nay luon phu thugc vao xua't nhap khau, vao anh hfldng cua cac tap doan xuyen qud'c gia, vao cac trung tam tri thflc va doanh nghiep phfldng Tay?
Mot loat va'n de khac nfla lien quan den cac linh vfle xa hgi va chinh tri tfl tudng. Nguyen nhan hoan toan la do each tiep can thUe dung cua ban lanh dao Trung Qud'c doi vdi viec hgi tu cac he thd'ng xa hgi khac nhau.
NGHIEN CIJIU TRUNG QUOC so 5 (93) • 2009
Danh gia td'ng hgp ve si/phat then.
Lieu xa hdi Trung Qud'c cdn cd the dflng vflng trong tfl the nflde ddi
"chang cheo" gifla ha tang kinh te thi trfldng ma thflc cha't la tfl ban ehii nghia va thfldng tang chinh tri phi thi trfldng kieu Xd viet trong bao lau nfla?
Lieu trong nen kinh te Trung Quoc cd the song song tdn tai trong thdi gian dai nhflng khuynh hfldng tfl do boa tfl ban tfl nhan hien dang la chu dao vdi vai trd lanh dao cflng ran cua Dang Cdng san Trung Qudc?
- Lam the nao de ket hdp khau hieu xay dung xa hgi cdng bang thinh vUdng - "tieu khang" (trong my tfl "chu nghia xa hdi dac sac Trung Qud'c) vdi hdn 25 trieu ndng dan Trung Qud'c dang sdng trong canh ngheo khd va cdn hdn 150 trieu ngUdi mfl chfl? Trong khi dd, 15%
tdng ldp thfldng lUu la cac dng chu va giam ddc xi nghiep, cdng ty nam trong tay phan Idn GDP va hdn 80%) tdng ddng gdp ngan hang cua eU dan.
- Lam the nao de xac dinh dUde mflc do cang thdng gifla nhflng ngfldi trong vai trd "sfle lao ddng re mat" vdi nhflng ngfldi dflde hfldng ldi dd bdc Igt sfle lad dgng nay? Khdng he cd mot dam bao xa hdi nao, gan 175 t n e u ndng dan trfldc day budc phai di lang thang khap nUdc de kiem viec lam tam bd, khdng the dinh cU hoac lap gia dinh rieng tai mdt ndi nao dd dflde. Theo nhflng thdng tin sfl heu hgc Trung Qud'c, nam 2005 tai nUdc nay da xay ra hdn 75 nghin cudc phan flng ciia ndng dan.
Tom lgi. cai gia phai tra ciia cai each d nflde nay cung la rat Idn. Nhflng Trung
Qud'c dat dflde dinh cao phat trien den ndi khong the chan lai dflde qua trinh cai each va hien dai hoa. Can phai tiep tue tien len phia trfldc theo con dUdng tien bg gap ghenh.
The he lanh dao hien nay cua Trung Qud'c se dUa da't nUde ve dau khi trong ban lanh dao nay cd nhflng ngudi tflng hgc tai cac trfldng dai hgc d My, phfldng Tay va Nhat Ban ngay cang cd anh hudng manh me hdn?
Tang ldp Tay hoa cua cac can bd va giam ddc tre, nhflng dng chu mdi cua cudc song hien da chiem hdn 1 trieu ngUdi va tang ldp nay ngay cang ddng hdn: Mdi nam khoang 1,5 trieu gidi tre Trung Qud'c sang hgc va thuc tap tai phUdng Tay. 0 Trung Qudc ngUdi ta ggi nhflng ngfldi nay la "hai quy" (tfl nflde ngoai trd ve) va hg cd du mgi dieu kien de phat trien.
Tra ldi nhflng cau hdi ke tren (ma sd' Ifldng nhflng cau hdi nay cd the nhan len gap bdi) la rat quan trgng de cd dUdc sU danh gia mdt each dflng dan va chin chan ca ve nhflng thanh tUu vT dai cung nhu nhflng hau qua ddi ndi va ddi ngoai cua cac eai each cua Trung Qud'c. TrUde het can phai lam rd ddng lUe va dieu kien de Trung Qudc tiep tuc tien len ke ca viec phan tich nhflng nhan td thuan ldi va bat lgi. Tom lgi, sudt mdt phan tU the ky tien hanh cai each, cac tai lieu truyen thdng da nhieu lan nha'n manh la
"Trung Qud'c dang dflng trfldc diem xuat phat mdi trong lich sii ".
vao nhflng nam 1940 - 1950 tai Trung Qud'c ngfldi ta tflng ndi rdng: "Di
NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 5 (93) - 2009
theo eon dfldng cua ngfldi Nga", "Lien Xo ngay nay la ngay mai cua chung ta".
Hien nay ngUdi Trung Qudc da khdng theo nhflng khau hieu nay nfla nhflng muc tieu hoan thanh cudc thd nghiem kinh te - xa hgi vi dai la xay dflng mot xa hgi kha gia thi van dflde gifl nguyen.
Hien nay Trung Qud'c dang di theo eon dudng rieng cua minh. Trung tam sii chu y ciia cac nha lanh dao Trung Qudc la nhflng van de ve an ninh kinh te, da dang boa ngudn nguyen lieu va ngudn nang Ifldng, gifl vflng dn dinh trong nflde. Can phai hieu rang hien nay Trung Qud'c dang dat ra nhflng nhiem vu kinh te - xa hdi chinh tri va van minh to Idn ma viec thflc hien dflde nhflng nhiem vu nay nha't dinh se anh hfldng den tinh hinh khdng chi d trong nflde ma cdn ddi vdi the gidi ndi chung ke ca nflde Nga. Hieu dflde dieu nay mot mat se xac dinh dflOc tiem nang cdng tac va cflng phat trien gifla Nga va Trung Qud'c va mat khac se danh gia mot each khach quan nhflng khd khan, thach thflc va mau thuan cd the gifla hai nflde.
Trung Quoc se di tdi dau?
Viec thflc hien cai each da bfldc sang giai doan mdi. Vay ban lanh dao Trung Qud'c se phan flng nhfl the nao ddi vdi nhflng van de va mau thuan mdi phat sinh?
Ngay tfl cudi nhflng nam 1990 khi Dang Tieu Binh ket thue boat ddng cua minh tren cfldng vi ngfldi dflng dau nha nflde thi sU say xUa vdi nhflng thang ldi da dflde thay bang nhan thflc ve nhflng va'n de chinh tri xa hdi thdi sfl ndng bdng
8
mdi. Triet ly "meo trang meo den"*
khdng cdn dflde ap dung ca trong canh ta lan trong canh hflu, dac biet la trong tang ldp mdi xua't hien rat manh cua cac chu sd hflu va cac nha quan ly. Uy tin cua Dang Cdng san Trung Qud'c vdi tren 70 trieu dang vien dang hi lung lay.
Nhflng trfldng hdp xin ra khdi Dang, khdng cd tien le hien nay da khdng cdn la hiem.
Nam 2000 - 2001 Chu tich Trung Qud'c va Tong Bi thu Dang Cong san Trung Qud'c Giang Trach Dan tai cac cudc hgi nghi kin cua Bd Chinh tri Trung Udng da ndi mdt each rat lo lang ve quy md nguy hai ciia tham nhflng va nguy cd mat on dinh trong nflde. Cudc da'u tranh ehd'ng tham nhflng dflde coi la mot trong nhflng nhiem vu chinh cua Dang. Dang da chinh siia chinh sach mdt each cd ban, da ap dung nhflng bien phap md rdng cd sd xa hgi cua Dang Cong san.
Da xua't hien sfl giai nghia mdi ve nhflng cd sd tfl tfldng, td chflc va xa hdi cua Dang Cdng san Trung Qud'c dudi hinh thflc "ba dai dien". Theo quan diem nay Dang Cong san Trung Qud'c la dai dien cho sfl phat trien Iflc Ifldng san xua't tien tien, van hoa tien tien va bao ve quyen ldi cua tuyet dai da sd nhan dan.
Su ddi mdi nay da choi bd tinh chat giai cap cua Dang Cdng san Trung Qude vdi tu each la dgi tien phong cua giai ca'p cdng nhan va chuyen ddi thanh Dang cua "toan bd nhan dan Trung Qud'c va cua toan dan tdc Trung Hoa".
Dang da tuyen bd rdng trong tUdng lai trong hoat ddng cua minh se nghiem
NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 5 (93) - 2009
D^nh gia tong hgp ve si/phat then...
chinh tuan thu nhflng dieu khoan cua Hien phap Trung Qud'c. Ddng thdi da bd sung vao Hien phap dieu khoan ve vai trd lanh dao cua Dang Cdng san Trung Qudc va he tu tfldng cua Dang trdng xa hgi Trung Qud'c cung nhfl nhflng bd sung can ban ve van de sd hflu: ve y nghia phap ly thi sd hflu xa hdi - nha nflde va sd hflu tfl nhan la ngang bang nhau.
vao dau the ky mdi (2002) da dien ra sfl thay ddi uyen chuyen cac nha lanh dao cua the he thfl ba do Giang Trach Dan dflng dau bang mot dgi ngu mdi do Hd cdm Dao lanh dao.
Sau hang thap ky cai each, trong xa hgi Trung Quo'c da khdng cdn sfl phan tdng xa hgi mot each rach rdi va da xua't hien giai tdng cac ong chu va ddi ngfl ddng dao cac nha quan ly. Giai ca'p trung Iflu dan dan dflde hinh thanh. Dai dien cua lan song mdi nay bdt dau tham gia tich cflc vao tien trinh chinh tri, ddi hdi quyen ldi ciia minh ve chinh quyen. Theo danh gia ciia cac cuoc tranh luan ve van de nay thi tfl tfldng "ba dai dien" hoan toan dap flng dflde nhflng ddi hdi cua cac dng ehii mdi. Mat khac, cac can bd Dang cao ca'p, nhflng ngfldi theo tfl tfldng Mao Trach Ddng va nhflng ngfldi dUde ggi la
"canh ta mdi" (tan Macxit) lai coi viec cac nha tU ban va dai dien cua tang ldp trung lUu gia nhap Dang la sfl thut lui rdi bd con dfldng xa hdi chu nghia va nhUdng bg chii nghla tU do.
Cac qua trinh phflc tap va ra't mau thudn trong Hnh vfle tfl tfldng-tinh than cua xa hoi Trung Qud'c cung ra't dang Iflu y.
NGHIEN CUIU TRUNG QUQC so 5 (93) - 2009
Cflng vdi viec tien hanh cai each md cda, xich lai gan phfldng Tay va viec tien hanh dfldng ldi tap hdp be thd'ng xa bdi da lam xua't hien va ngay cang Idn manh hdn khuynh hfldng phfldng Tay hoa va tfl do boa tat ca mgi linh vfle van hoa va ddi sd'ng xa hdi.. Gia tri Nho giao tdn trgng truyen thd'ng, thd phung cha me, tuan thu phap luat va ban luu he thd'ng dang ca'p trong cac quan he trong nUde, trong gia dinh va gifla cac ca nhan vdi nhau da khdng cdn y nghia va dUde thay the bdi nhflng tfl tfldng tfl do flu tien quyen ca nhan, ca the trUde cac quyen cua xa hdi, tap the va gia dinh.
Nd Iflc hdp phap boa quan diem ddi lap cdng khai tai Trung Qudc vdi sii ung hd giau mat cua My da dien ra vao nam 1999, tflc 10 nam sau sfl kien quy md Idn dau tien kieu nay- sfl kien ndi tieng tai quang trUdng Thien An Mdn- dUdi binh thflc hoat dgng cua giao phai Phat giao di giao "Phap Luan Cdng". Giao phai nay hi dat ra ngoai vdng phap luat, nhflng ngfldi dflng dau giao phai phai trdn sang My va tiep tuc cac boat ddng d nUde ngoai, ke ca tai nflde Nga (Ban chi dao cua giao phai nay ddng tai Sank- Peterburg).
Cudi the'ky XX - dau the ky XXI ddng thdi vdi he tfl tfldng chinh thd'ng, dflde the hien bdi cdng thflc "bdn tang" la
"Chu nghla Mac - Tfl tfldng Man Trach Ddng- Ly luan Dang Tieu Binh - Tfl tfldng "Ba dai dien", tai Trung Qud'c da hinh thanh them ba trao Iflu ly luan- tfl tfldng (chu nghia tii do, chu nghia yeu nude dan tdc va chu nghia Tan Macxit
(neomaxizm) vdi sfl the hien 0 cac ca'p do khac nhau.
Bang each nay hay each khac cac trao Iflu nay cha'p nhan vai trd lanh. dao cua Dang Cdng san Trung Qudc nhflng phe phan chinh sach cua Dang theo quan diem cua canh ta hay canh hflu. Cho den nay, Trung fldng Dang Cdng san Trung Qud'c ehUa cdng khai the hien mdi quan he cua minh ddi vdi cac trao lUu tren.
Dudng ldi tu tudng cua bd ddi lanh dao Hd cdm Dao - On Gia Bao va chinh sach do hg tien hanh chflng td rang cac nha lanh dao da't nflde hien nay van tiep tuc di theo dfldng ldi chung cua Dang Tieu Binh cflng vdi nhflng bd sung cua Giang Trach Dan va phat t n e n dudng ldi nay.
Minh boa tinh kien quyet cua ban lanh dao Trung Quo'c khdng ngflng khac phuc nhflng khd khan mdi xua't hien va tiep tue tien len theo eon dfldng phat trien cai each chinh la ket qua cua Dai hgi XVII Dfing Cong san Trung Qud'c mdi dien ra vao thang 10-2007.
Dai hoi Dang: con duong phat trien va hai hoa hoa
Dai hgi da dfla ra cau tra ldi Trung Qud'c se dl theo eon dUdng nao - eon dudng "xd hgi chu nghla dgc sdc Trung Qudc". Muc tieu chien thuat la xay diing hoan chinh xd hgi khd gid nhan ngay ky niem 100 nam thanh lap Dang Cdng san Trung Qud'c se dug'c ky niem vao nam 2021.
TrUdc them Dai hdi ba van de lien quan chat che vdi nhau neu tren da la ddi tUdng tranh luan nay liia trnng
Dang. Va chung da dUde xua't hien mdt each gian tiep tren cac trang bao ehi.
Mdt sd tac gia Trung Qud'c, trUdc het la dai dien cua gidi lao dgng tri thflc da the hien nhflng quan diem khac nhau ve
\iec chgn liia eon dfldng xua't phat ban dau. Mot so' trich ddn ldi cua Dang Tieu Binh rdng khdng nen vdi vang dat ten Xa (xa hgi chu nghia) hay Tfl - "tfl ban chu nghia" cho mdt xa hdi ma hien nay Trung Qud'c dang xay diing trong qua trinh lau dai giai quyet nhflng nhiem vu hien dai hoa da't nflde va xay dflng xa hgi
"kha gia" ("tieu khang") va muo'n vay mUdn md hinh kinh te thi trUdng va he thd'ng chinh tri phfldng Tay. Nhflng ngfldi khac lai cdng khai chinh kien cua minh bdng nhflng trich dan ve flu the cua cac Dang Xa hdi dan ehii chau Au nhu Thuy Si, Na Uy, Thuy Dien, Dfle v.v... Nhflng ngfldi thfl ba thi ap dung thiic tien va thanh tiiu cua cac "tieu hd"
chau A, dac biet la cua Singapo va Han Qud'c keu ggi nen dfla vao cac gia tri Nho giao va lam phong phu them cac gia tri nay bang nhflng thanh tflu hien dai cua cac nflde tien tien, xay dflng mot xa hdi thi trfldng van minh phat trien, bd qua nhflng tu tudng cua chu nghia xa hgi.
Mot bg phan lao thanh dang vien Dang Cong san Trung Qud'c va Quan giai phdng nhan dan Trung Qud'c, cac nha khoa hgc ten tudi ve linh viic nay trong nhflng bfle thfl giii Trung Udng Dang Cong san Trung Qud'c, mot so' da dUde dang tren cac trang bao Hdng Kdng, da len an nhflng quan diem ke tren. Theo hg, ba loai quan diem tren da xuyen tac chinh sach cai each, md ciia va di ngflde
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NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 5 (93) - 2009Ddnh gia tdng hgp ve si/phat then.
cac muc tieu xa hgi chu nghia ciia Dang Cong san Trung Qudc.
Thflc cha't la nhflng mdi quan tam chii yeu cua mdt sd dang vien lao thanh, cac thanh vien tich cflc va cac nha tri thflc cua Dang phdn nhieu da phan anh nhflng hien thflc xua't hien trong qua trinh tien hanh cai each chinh tri do chinh 5.ach va chien Ifldc cai each md cda da vach ra. Nhflng van de nay chinh la nhflng van de phat trien. Cai each da lam thay ddi ddi sd'ng cua gan mot ty rfldi ngfldi thugc cac tang ldp khac nhau.
Cdn phai cd thdi gian va ra't nhieu cd' gang de mgi ngudi thich nghi vdi nhflng tha}' ddi nay.
Niiflng quan diem nay ve tfldng lai ciia Trung Qud'c deu dan tdi mdt mau sd' chung Ja mot sieu nhiem vu va cdn phai cdng nhan rang nhin chung da dflde giai qujet bdi Dai hgi XVII Dang Cdng san Trung Quo'c. Uy vien Thfldng vu Bd Ch h h tri Trung fldng Dang Cdng san Trung Qud'c, Thii tfldng Qud'c Vu vien nflde Cong hoa nhan dan Trung Hoa On Gia Bao khi phat bieu trong cudc thao luan tai lieu cua Dai hgi trong doan dai bieu tinh Tfl Xuyen ve va'n de nay da nha'n manh: "Chii nghia xa hdi la gi va lam the nao de xay dflng chii nghia xa hgi dd la hai van de cd ban gid'ng nhfl trfldc day dflde dat ra ddi vdi Dang Cdng san Trung Qud'c trong qua trinh giai phong tu tUdng"'^*.
Neu danh gia theo cac tai lieu cdng bd ciia chinh Dai hgi thi cd the khdng dinh rdng nhflng y kien cua cac cudc thao luan trong ndi bg Dang deu da dflde chu y. Nhin chung cac nha lanh dao Dang
Cdng san Trung Quo'c da eo' tim ra nhflng hat nhan hdp ly trong ta't ca nhflng y kien ddi lap nhau, cudi cung mdt so' y kien da dflde can nhdc, mot sd' khac hi bac bd mot each cd cd sd.
Neu trich dan phan tich - ndi dung bao eao cua Hd Cam Dao dgc trfldc Dai hdi XVII cd the tha'y rdng nhflng thuat ngfl chinh cua bao eao nay cd the bien soan thanh cudn tfl dien thuat ngfl mdi.
Chang phai ngau nhien ma td "Nhan dan nhat bad" da giup cac dang vien dang tai giai nghia nhflng cdng thflc va khai niem cd ban cd trong cac van kien cua Dang. Thudng gap nha't la thuat ngfl va khai niem: "cai each va md ciia" va
"chu nghia xa hgi dac sac Trung Qud'c",
"xa hdi kha gia", ("tieu khang"), "quan diem phat trien khoa hgc", "cdng nghiep hoa", "hien dai boa", "thfldng nghiep hoa", "tiep thi boa", "mdi trfldng boa",
"xa hdi hoa", " toan cau hoa", "nhan van boa", "dan chu boa", "phat trien boa binh", "ddc lap va tU chu"... Ta't ca nhflng thuat ngfl nay ve tdng the da phan anh nhflng khia canh chu yeu ngi dung cac van kien Dai hdi XVII Dang Cdng san Trung Qud'c va muc tieu chien Ifldc cua Trung Qudc.
Bao cao dUdc soan thao mot each logic Uu tien xem xet nhflng van de ndi bg trong nflde va ddi sd'ng cua nhan dan Trung Qudc. Chinh vi vay viec phan tich cac mat khac nhau cua sU phat trien kinh te, chinh tri, xa hdi, van hoa va quan sfl ngi bg ciia Trung Qud'c chiem tdi 9 phan chinh trong bao eao.
Cung can chi ro mdt sd van de mdi lan ddu tien dUde de ra rat rd rang trong cac
NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUdC sd 5 (93) - 2009
= 11
van kien ciia Dang Cdng san Trung Qud'c. Trfldc het dd la khuynh hfldng thay doi mo hinh phdt trien, chuyen td mo hinh phdt trien theo bi rong sang mo hinh phdt trien theo chieu sau tiet kiem tdi nguyen vd ndng Iddng. De lam dflde viec nay diem tiia chinh la phai phat trien cac nganh khoa hgc cd ban, nang eao trinh do van hoa cua quang dai qudn chflng nhan dan tren quy md Idn, phat trien va hoan thien he. thd'ng giao due, hfldng tdi xay dflng xa hgi sang tao cd nghia la xa hgi kinh te tri thflc. Nhflng y tfldng ddi mdi dac biet quan trgng nay rat xflng dang de nflde Nga quan tam tdi.
Va'n de tiep theo lien quan tnic tiep tdi nhip do phat trien eao cua Trung Qud'c la cai gia dac biet phai tra vi sfl phat trien nay va nhflng tac ddng phu ciia chung la sfl xa'u di cua tinh trang mdi trfldng tdi mflc nguy hiem. Trong va'n de nay trong so' nhflng ddi mdi chiem vi tri quan trgng la quan diem xay dflng "vdn minh sinh thdi", phan anh mdi quan tam cua cac nha lanh dao Dang Cong san Trung Quo'c tdi linh vfle dac biet quan trgng nay. Cdn phai xem x6t lai mot each that nghiem chinh cd ca'u cac nganh san xua't ehi phi nang Ifldng cao ma hieu sua't lai tha'p, gay d nhiem mdi trfldng xung quanh cao. Cac nha khoa hoc Vien Viin Ddng ludn canh bao gidi hgc gia Trung Qud'c cflng nhfl qude te ve tam quan trgng cua viec cflng nhau nghien cflu va'n de can ban nay, va'n de khdng ehi lien quan den Trung Qud'c ma cd the va da cd anh hUdng tieu cUc den tinh trang mdi trUdng tai cac
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vung Siberi (van de Irtysh) va Vien Ddng cua nUde Nga va cac qud'c gia khac CO bien gidi vdi Trung Qudc.
Cudi cflng, trong cac van kien ciia Dai hgi cdn cd van de ndi ve viec ket hdp van hoa tien tien vdi nhflng thanh tflu td't nha't cua nen van hoa truyen thd'ng Trung Hoa, ve viec nghien cflu cac gia tri van hoa dich thflc cua nflde ngoai. Do dd van de "Trung Quo'c hoa" da dflde dat
"•a mot each nghiem tue va sau sac, mang khuynh hfldng dan tdc va qud'c te.
Mdt lan nfla lai de ra nhiem vu tang cUdng Trung Qud'c hoa chii nghia Mac va tuyen truyen rdng rai de ta't ca dang vien Dang Cdng san Trung Qud'c nghien cflu cac san pham Trung Qud'c hoa trong dd bao gdm khai niem "chu nghia xa hgi dac sac Trung Quo'c" va xay dflng "xa hgi kha gia" dflde bd sung bdi nhflng y tfldng mdi ve xay dflng "xd hgi hdi hod" ve
"quan diem phdt trien khoa hgc" vk
"cong trinh xay ddng Ddng" cua Dang Cong san Trung Qud'c. Nhdm cac dinh de mang tinh ly luan nay se dflde xem xet mot each ddc lap.
Ve viec Trung Qud'c hoa chii nghia Mac. Nhfl chung ta biet, nhiem vu nay do Mao Trach Ddng de ra tfl nam 1938.
Trong bao eao "Vi tri cua Ddng Cong sdn Trung Qudc trong chien tranh nhdn ddn", Chii tich Mao ndi: "Nhan dan ta cd lich sii hang nghin nam, nhan dan ta cd nhflng dac diem rieng cua minh, nhan dan da tao nen nhieu gia tri. De hieu het nhflng van de nay, chung ta hien vdn chi la nhflng hgc trd tieu hgc. Trung Qudc hien dai la san pham cua sfl phat trien toan bd qua khfl cua Trung Qud'c. Chflng NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 5 (93) - 2009
Danh gia tdng hgp ve si/phat then.
ta la nhflng ngfldi tan thanh each tiep can lich sii Macxit, chung ta khdng the gat bd qua khfl lich sii cua chung ta.
Chung ta can phai tdng ket toan bg qua khfl cua chung ta- tfl Khdng Tii den Tdn Trung Sdn va tiep thu toan bg di san quy gia cua qua khfl. Dieu dd se la sfl hd trd Idn de lanh dao trao Iflu vi dai hien nay.
Cac dang vien Cdng san la nhflng ngfldi tan thanh hgc thuyet qud'c te la chu nghia Mac, song chung ta chi cd the ap dung chu nghia Mae vao cudc sd'ng khi tinh den nhflng dac diem dan tdc cu the cua da't nUde va dfldi mdt binh thflc dan tdc nha't dinh"''".
Ca tfl thdi dd lan hien nay, Trung Qud'c hoa dflde eoi la sfl ket hdp nhflng nguyen tdc chung ciia chii nghia Maexit- Leninit vdi thflc t i l n Trung Qude, tham nhuan di san dan tdc phong phu va sii dung di san nay de phat trien da't nflde va giai quyet nhflng nhiem vu mdi.
Khdng phai ngau nhien ma tfl dien dan Dai hdi XVII Hd Cam Dao da keu ggi tang cfldng vfl trang toan Dang bdng
"nhdng thdnh tiiu mdi nhdt cua chu nghla Mdc Trung Qudc hod"
Can nha'n manh la trong nhieu nam ban lanh dao Trung Qude da nghien cflu ra't k^ nhflng nguyen nhan va bai hgc sup dd cua Lien Xd va Dang Cdng san Lien Xd. Nhflng nghi quyet cac Dai hdi Dang, Hdi nghi toan the Dang Cong san Trung Qud'c va dac biet la cac van kien Dai hgi XVII da chflng mmh rdng ban lanh dao Trung Qud'c da than trgng nhU the nao trong nghien cflu nhflng bai hgc bi tham ve sfl tan ra ciia Lien Xd va Dang Cong san Lien Xd. Trfldc bet, dieu NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUQC s6 5 (93) - 2009
nay dUde the hien trong viec Dang coi Trung Qud'c boa chu nghia Mae, tinh den nhflng dac diem phat trien da't nflde, xay dflng quan diem "chu nghia xa hdi dac sac Trung Qud'c" la nhflng dieu kien chu yeu de tang cfldng be tfl tfldng cua Dang Cdng san Trung Qudc trong xa hdi va la dieu kien chu yeu dam bao tinh hdp phap vai trd lanh dao cua chinh Dang Cdng san Trung Qud'c. Vdi y nghia nay thi Trung Quo'c boa chu nghia Mac cd nghia la ndi ket ly luan tU tfldng hien dai ve xay dflng mdt xa bdi nhan van cdng bdng, ndi theo each truyen thd'ng thuat ngfl vay mfldn tfl phfldng Tay la
"chu nghia xa hgi" vdi truyen thd'ng dan tdc. Vi the khdng phai ngau nhien ma chu nghia xa bdi d giai doan dau cua nd dUde dong nghia vdi thuat ngfl ddc dao la xa hgi kha gia- "tieu khang".
Y tfldng hai boa- "Hoa" cung la ket hdp cua luan diem "ve tinh you ndi chung va ldi ich chung" vdi nguyen tac cua Khdng Tu ve "boa hdp gifla cai da dang va cai khdng gid'ng nhau". Cd sd ly luan cua ta't ca nhflng cai mdi nay la bien chflng cua dad giao truyen thdng
"phan ddi cai thd'ng nha't va hdp nha't hai mat ddi lap thanh mdt the thd'ng nha't"
" - 'A 'J~J - " , " 1 M Ngoai ra, sfl ke thfla cdn dflde ket hdp bdng nhflng ddi mdi cd tinh den nhflng dac diem thflc tidn cua Trung Qudc va nhflng thanh tflu tien tien vay mfldn tfl phfldng Tay ke ca nhflng tfl tfldng xa hgi tfl nUdc ngdai cung nbu nhflng nghien cflu cua cac nha xa hdi hgc Trung Qudc.
Trung Qud'c hoa chu nghia Mac va xay dung chu nghia xa hdi dac sac Trung
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Qudc dflde noi ket vdi viec thflc hien ba
"nhiem vu lich sii vi dai" la: "thflc hien hien dai boa, hoan thanh thd'ng nha't^dat nflde va bao ve hoa binh tren toan the gidi", khuyen khich cflng nhau phat trien. Ve ddi ngi, Trung Qud'c boa cd nghia la cung cd' ban gdc van hoa, tang cudng chinh sach cai each dfla tren nen tang Trung Qude, thi ve mat ddi ngoai y tfldng nay chinh la quan diem phat trien hoa binh va the gidi hai boa. Cflng vdi quan diem nay, mot nhiem vu khdng kem phdn quan trgng thue day nen van boa truyen thd'ng ndi chung va cung cd' ldi song van minh tich cflc eiia Trung Quo'c, day tflng la mdt bg phan cua chinh sach md eiia, mdt nflde Trung Qud'c "hoa binh" xua't bien tren trUdng qud'c te, dudng ldi hai hoa boa cac quan he qud'c te' va the gidi ndi chung. Nhflng nam gan day cac nha lanh dao Trung Qude dac biet chu y tdi viec tuyen truyen nhflng thanh tflu hign nay cua nen van boa Trung Qudc va phat trien rdng rai viec day tieng Trung. Cac hgc vien Khdng Tfl dflde thanh lap d khap ndi, d Lien bang Nga hdn mdt chuc hgc vien nhu the dflde thanh lap trong cac trfldng dai hgc. Cac hgc vien nay trd thanh trung tam nghien cflu tieng Trung, truyen ba truyen tho'ng phong phu cua lich sii Trung Qud'c. Nam Trung Qud'c d Nga vfla ket thuc mdi day da tao nen mot sfl "bflng nd Trung Qude" rat dgc dao, ngfldi dan, nha't la gidi tre Nga ra't quan tam den nhieu khia canh ciia nen van boa, tdi lich sii, nghe thuat, y hgc, am thiic, nghe thuat gifl gin sfle khoe va vo cd truyen Trung Qud'c. Nhflng quan
diem, cdng trinh ciia cac nha khoa hgc Vien Vien Ddng va cac nha Trung Qud'c hgc Nga khac la nhflng ddng gdp to Idn vao qua trinh nay va mang y nghia tich cflc ciing cd' sfl hieu biet lan nhau va tinh hflu nghi gifla nhan dan hai nflde Nga- Trung.
Cflng vdi nhdm van de nay cdn cd luan dien mang tinh tfl tfldng ve sfl phat trien va lam sau sac quan diem do Mao Trach Ddng de ra trong thdi gian chien tranh ehd'ng Nhat. Dd la van de ve mdi quan he gifla chu nghia yeu nflde va chu nghia qud'c te vd san. Tfl tfldng cua chu nghia yeu nflde, tfl tfldng cdi ngudn dan tdc va ban sac cua Dang Cong san Trung Qud'c da trd thanh tfl tfldng ndi bat.
"Quan diem phat trien khoa hgc".
San pham mdi nha't cua viec Trung Quo'c hda chu nghia Mac dUde de ra sau Dai hdi XVII Dang Cdng san Trung Qud'c, tac gia la Tdng Bi thfl Dang Cdng san Trung Qud'c Hd Cam Dao vdi dinh de tfl tfldng chu dao " lay con ngfldi lam gdc"
va yeu cdu phat trien dn dinh va hai hoa ve mgi mat. Quan diem nay chinh thflc dUde coi la cd sd xay diing tai Trung Qud'c mot xa hgi xa hdi chu nghia hai hoa phdn vinh va manh me - "xa hgi chu nghia dac sdc Trung Qud'c". Ddng thdi, dieu can nha'n manh la tren thiic te viec de ra khai niem nay chinh la sii rut lui
"em diu" va lam rd mot so tfl tudng do cac nha tien bdi da de ra. "Quan diem phat trien khoa hgc" va nhflng yeu cau ve phat trien ben vflng, toan dien, hai hoa cd nghia la khde phuc hang loat nhflng chu trgng mot chieu trong chinh
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NGHIEN CIJIU TRUNG QUOC sO 5 (93) - 2009Danh gia tdng hgp ve si/phat then...
sach k i n h t e trfldc day. T h i du, h i e n n a y T r u n g Qude d a k h d n g chi c h u y tdi viec t a n g trUdng cac chi so' k i n h te m a k h d n g chu y tdi cac va'n de xa hdi. T h a y vi n h a n m a n h k h d u h i e u l a m g i a u nhflng k h u vfle b a y cac ca n h a n r i e n g biet h i e n n a y t a p t r u n g sfl chfl y vao viec xay diing t o a n t h e xa hdi k h a gid v a cflng gia t a n g sfl t h i n h vfldng va k h a c p h u c sU p h a n boa tai s a n n g h i e m t r g n g t r o n g xa hgi.
Ngi h a m eiia nd lien q u a n tdi viec ehi dfla vao sfl p h a t t r i e n n h a n h chdng eiia cac dac k h u k i n h t e p h d n ven b i e n nhU ThUdng H a i , T h a m Q u y e n k h d n g cd nghia la k h o n g c h u y d a y du tdi viec p h a t t r i e n cac vflng ngi dia t r o n g nflde va lang q u e n nhflng va'n de cd sd cdng nghiep lac h a u tai vflng D d n g Bac T r u n g Qud'c, k h d n g c h u y tdi nhflng n h u cau cua ndng t h d n , c h u y mdt chieu tdi cdng nghiep hoa t r e n vai cua n d n g thon. q u a chu y tdi t i n h h i n h c u a gidi thUdng Iflu m a bd q u e n nhflng v a n de cua n d n g d a n va cdng n h a n . Ndi each k h a c la " q u a n diem p h a t t r i e n k h o a hgc" d a t r a n h i e m vu khde p h u c 5 g i a n each do k e t q u a t a n g trfldng k i n h t e q u a n h a n h t r o n g tien t r i n h cai each md ciia s i n h ra, hfldng tdi giam bdt gia t h a n h q u a cao ve moi trUdng va xa hgi do viec tiep t u c thiic bien c h i n h s a c h n a y vdi n h i p do n h a n h nhfl hien nay. D d n g thdi, dieu cdn dac biet nha'n m a n h la; sfl t h a y ddi cua mot loat chfl t r g n g t r o n g c h i n h s a c h k h d i i r co nghia la ehdi hd c h i e n JUge c h u n g cai each md cUa
Chu y tdi con ngfldi, m.gt r-igt do la cau tra ldi dac biet ddi vdi sU t a n g cfldng n h a n td eon ngUdi t r o n g xay dflng k i n h NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC so 5 (93) - 2009
te da't nflde, m a t k h a c dd la cau tra ldi cho nhflng eao huge ve vi p h a m quyen con ngUdi xua't p h a t tfl ben ngoai.
Nhfl vay, " p h a t t r i e n khoa hgc" la q u a n diem t d n g hdp cd h e thd'ng ddi vdi nhflng va'n de n a y s i n h t r o n g qua t r i n h thflc h i e n c h i n h s a c h cdi each md cfla. Dd la t h a n h tflu mdi cua viec T r u n g Qud'c hoa chu n g h i a Mac t r o n g giai doan mdi la p h a n flng chin c h a n cua D a n g Cdng s a n T r u n g Qud'c ddi vdi nhflng van de gai gdc tflng la ddi tflOng t r a n h l u a n t r o n g gidi t r i thflc T r u n g Quo'c. Khai niem n a y cdn t h e hien chu nghia thiic d u n g von cd cua t h e be hien nay cua gidi cam quyen T r u n g Qudc.
"Cdng t r i n h vT dai xay diing Dang".
L u a n diem mdi n a y la ddi tUdng chu y dac biet cua Dai hdi XVII, trfldc bet nd lien q u a n den each tiep can mdi ddi vdi mot loat k h i a c a n h ve td chflc, tfl tUong cua cdng tac xay dflng D a n g den cicl;
giai quyj't nhflng va'r. do trong cae li.-ib vfle chien Ifldc, cliien t h u a t cua Dang, deu viec tim kiem phUdng tliut cung cd t i n h hdp p h a p va vai trd cua D a n g trong viec q u a n . I y da't nUde. Dieu nay dUde p h a n a n h t r o n g cac k h i a c a n h dfldi day:
- N a n g cao k h a n a n g q u a n ly cua Dang;
- Dieu tiet cac b o a t ddng cua D a n g trong k h u d n k h d ciia Hien p h a p va l u a t p n a p ;
- C h u t r g n g tdi M a t t r a n thdng nha't, .md r d r g cd sJ xa hdi cua Dang, dong thdi r.han m a n h vai tro tien p h o n g cua D a n g vdi tu each la D a n g cua nhflng ngUdi lao dcng. trfldc b e t la cua giai cap cdng
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nhan, Dang cua toan the nhan dan Trung Qud'c va toan dan toe Trung Hoa;
- Tiep tue thflc hien nguyen tac dgc lap, tfl chu, khdng can thiep vao cong viec ngi bg cua cac Dang khac, eoi cac yeu to' doi ngi va ddi ngoai trong boat ddng cua Dang Cong san Trung Qud'c va cua Trung Qud'c la nhflng tien de can thiet tao dieu kien thuan Idi nham giai quyet nhflng nhiem vu ddi ndi xay dung da't nflde.
Dfldng nhfl do nhflng ly do tren ma trong tfl dien hien nay cua nhflng ngfldi cdng san Trung Qud'c, cac thuat ngfl
"chu nghia qud'c te vd san", "doan ket" da dflde thay the bdi cac thuat ngfl "hdp tac", "thd'ng nha't".
De tra ldi nhflng thach thflc ben trong va ben ngoai, ban lanh dao Trung Qudc da de ra "quan diem dan chu trong Dang". Theo quan diem nay, chinh sach Trung Quo'c se dan dan tien tdi thflc hien he thdng bdu cd tnic tiep, trach nhiem bao eao cua Bd Chinh tri va cac Dang uy do dai hdi va cac hdi nghi toan the chgn liia v.v... Quan diem quyen eon ngfldi dflde phat trien theo nguyen tdc ket hdp tap trung dan chu va xay dflng Dang va quan diem bao dam quyen dang vien ciia Dang.
Ngflde lai, vdi quan diem cua Mao Trach Ddng trfldc day dfla qua nhieu vao da'u tranh giai ca'p, trong phan Ldi ndi dau mang tinh cfldng linh cua Dieu le Dang da nha'n manh: "Do nhflng yeu td ddi ngi va anh hUdng nflde ngoai nen cudc da'u tranh giai ca'p se cdn tdn tai trong mot thdi gian dai trong mdt khudn khd nha't dinh, va trong nhflng trfldng
hdp ndi bat se cd the dflde tang cfldng hdn nhflng nd da khdng cdn la mp- thuan chinh nfla".
Cac nha lanh dao Trung Quo'c hien nay da hgc hdi dflde kinh nghiem cua chinh Trung Quo'c trong thdi ky "dai nhay vgt" (1958-1960) va cua "cacn mang van hoa" (1966-1976). Dieu le Dang Cdng san Trung Qud'c keu ggi: hay the hien ro tinh canh giac ehd'ng lai chieu hfldng "ta khuynh" nhung phai tap trung "dac biet chu y ngan ngfla canh hflu".
Quan he Nga-Trung: Vi quyen lgi chung
Cac van kien Dai hgi Dang da de ra nhflng quan diem nghiem tue ve nhflng muc tieu, khuynh hfldng va nhflng ddn bay thflc tien cua sfl phat trien manh me cua Trung Qud'c. Ban lanh dao dat nflde khdng thoi phdng nhflng thanh tflu dat dflde ma tap trung diem lai nhflng khd khan va nhflng van de cdn tdn tai cdn phai tim ra phfldng phap de giai quyet.
Tfl quan diem cua nhflng van de dflde de cap den d tren rang nhflng yeu td' anh hudng tfl ben ngoai lien quan den khuynh hudng phat t n e n cua Trung Qud'c, nhflng nghi quyet cua Dai hgi Dang chflng ta cd the rut ra mot so nhan xet. Trddc het, theo quan diem ciia gidi lanh dao Trung Qude thi sii tang eUdng uy tin cua Trung Qud'c tren the gidi , sfl cung sd vi the cua nflde nay tren trfldng qude te can phai song hanh vdi nhflng thanh tflu phat trien ngi tai ciia Trung Qude, vdi "sfle manh mem" Trung Qud'c du kha nang giai quyet nhflng nhiem vu
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NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUQC sd 5 (93) - 2009Danh gia tdng hgp vest/phat then.
to Idn: h i e n dai hoa da't nflde "dfldi nggn cd tfl tfldng c h u n g h i a xa hdi dac sdc T r u n g Qud'c" xay diing xa hdi k h a gia t o a n dien, thd'ng nha't hoa b i n h To qud'c va xay dflng mdi q u a n h e h a i boa vdi ta't ca cac nflde. Dae b i e t q u a n t r g n g la,
" T r u n g Qud'c se h u d n g tdi sfl " p h a t t r i e n c h u n g " va " t h i n h vfldng chung". C h i n h nhflng tfl tfldng n a y se la n e n t a n g cua each tiep c a n p h a n a n h t d m n h i n c h i n h sach ddi ngoai "ba chieu" cua cac n h a p h a n tich T r u n g Qud'c: t h e gidi cac nUde p h a t t r i e n , cac nflde l a n g gieng va cac nflde d a n g p h a t t r i e n .
Neu xem xet va'n de p h a t t r i e n boa binh cua T r u n g Qud'c m o t each k h a c h q u a n , k h o n g d i n h kien, k h d n g hi am a n h va t r e n q u a n diem q u y e n ldi cua nflde Nga thi cd t h e tha'y r a n g sfl p h a t trien nay cua T r u n g Qud'c d a t r a muc tieu chfl yeu cua m i n h la t a o dflng nhflng dieu kien qud'c te t h u a n ldi va mdi trUdng l a n g gieng hflu n g h i t h u a n ldi. C u n g cd' mdi q u a n he ddi tac chien Ifldc vdi p h d n Idn cac nflde l a n g gieng, hdp tac vi sfl t h i n h vfldng c h u n g - ta't ca nhflng dieu nay d a p flng dflde q u y e n ldi p h a t t n e n hoa b i n h k h d n g ehi cua T r u n g Qud'c m a cdn cua cac nflde l a n g gieng cflng nhfl cua ca t h e gidi.
Ndi ve q u a n h e Nga- T r u n g , dieu can nha'n m a n h la mdi q u a n h e n a y dflde xay dflng mdt each k h a c h q u a n diia vao cac yeu to'gdn gui ve dia ly va sfl bd s u n g l a n n h a u ve k i n h te gifla T r u n g Qud'c va Nga, diia t r e n nhflng t r u y e n t h d n g lang gieng hflu nghj gifla h a i d a n tdc. C h u n g dflde ciing cd t h e m bdi bai ben cung q u a n t a m d e n sU p h a t t r i e n ngay cang
t a n g va ddi tac chien luOc rdng Idn. tao t h u a n ldi de tflng nflde giai quyet nhflng n h i e m vu d a n tdc cua m i n h . Ddi vdi T r u n g Qud'c nhflng n h i e m vu nay la sU p h a t trien va den gifla t h e ky sau se vUdn len d a t dflOe t r i n h do tien tien, cdn ddi vdi Lien b a n g N g a thi dd la khdi p h u c h o a n t o a n va t a n g cfldng hdn nfla tiem n a n g k m h te-xa hdi. t r e n cO sd dd c u n g cd dia vi cua m i n h xflng d a n g vdi vi the qud'c te t r u y e n thd'ng cua minh. Neu ndi mdt each cu t h e thi k h a n a n g cdng tac to Idn ehfla dflng t r o n g cac ke hoach giai quyet n h i e m vu thflc day vflng Siberi va Vien Ddng, ddng thdi vdi viec giai q u y e t nhflng nhiem vu p h a t trien tUdng tfl tai vflng mien Tay cua T r u n g Qudc va t h u c day nen t a n g cdng nghiep cua T r u n g Qud'c tai v u n g Ddng Bac.
T r o n g dieu kien hien tai, hai nflde da d a t dUdc t r i n h do cao trong c|uan he song phfldng, k h d n g nhflng k h d n g khdi vfldng b a n ve mot loat v a n de ddi hdi md hdi cdng sfle de k h a c p h u c chung. Song c h u n g k h d n g t h a y the duOc van de chinh. Hai nUdc cd nhflng quyen ldi cd b a n gid'ng n h a u . Ngcai nhflng n h i e m vu xay diing t r o n g nUde n h u da de cap, dd cdn la viec hai nflde cd q u a n diem c h u n g hoac gidng n h a u ve nhflng van de p h a t t r i e n t h e gidi, cflng n h a u p h a t trien va ddi vdi cac v a n de k h u vfle, song phudng rdng Idn. Nhflng k h a c biet le nhd khdng m a n g t i n h cha't doi k h a n g va cd the dflde giai q u y e t t r e n g k h u d n khd phdi hdp song phUdng tin tUdng lan n h a u . Thi du cua viec n a y la nhflng n a m gan day bai nflde cd g a n g giai quyet mot trong nhflng
"diem yeu" la t a n g cUdng d a n g ke mflc
NGHIEN CUU TRUNG QUOC sd 5 (93) - 2009
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do tha'p cua kim ngach thfldng mai. Ket qua la kim ngach nay da dat dflde 48,2 ty USD nam 2007'^', it nha't la tang 2,5 lan so vdi nam 2004. Xua't phat tfl viec phan tich da chieu cac yeu to va khuynh hfldng dac trflng cho tinh hinh chinh tri, kinh te-xa hgi van hoa- tfl tfldng hien nay tai Trung Quo'c cung nhfl trong khu vfle va tren the gidi, tap the cac nha khoa hgc thudc Vien Vien Ddng Nga dang nghien cflu cac kich ban phat trien cd the cua Trung Qud'c trong tfldng lai ngan han, trung han va dai ban.
Tfl sfl phan tich dfla tren nhflng khuynh hfldng tfl tfldng va thflc tien nhflng nam gan day tai Trung Qude cd the xem xet mot so' kich ban bao gdm kich ban trdi day manh me cua Trung Qud'c lien quan den viec nflde nay dat dflde vi the cfldng qud'c the gidi cflng nhfl kich ban tri tre va ba't dn, tham chi hi sup dd. Song theo chung toi trong thdi gian tdi nhflng kich ban nay deu khdng the trd thanh hien thiic.
Kich ban hien thflc hdn ca dap flng quyen ldi eiia Nga la sfl tang trfldng ra't nang ddng va dn dinh cua Trung Qud'c va nen kinh te cua nflde nay ve cd ban duy tri nhflng khuynh hudng hdi tu hien nay trong phat trien ngi tai trong nflde.
Nflde Nga quan tam mdt each khach quan tdi sii phat trien kinh te nang ddng cua Trung Qude ddng thdi duy tri sii on dinh chinh tri tai day. Trong trfldng hdp tai Trung Qudc khuynh hfldng nay dflde duy tri ddng thdi nen kinh te Nga dat dflde tdc do tang trfldng 6-7% nam thi kha nang hdp tac song phfldng gifla hai
nflde se dflde md rong va tfl dd se md rdng ca sang hdp tac song phfldng ve chinh tri.
Nhfl vay sfl tang trfldng kinh te song song cua Trung Quo'c va Nga se la kich ban tdi flu tren quan diem hdp tac Nga - Trung va cung co' vi the ciia Nga tren the gidi.
Hien thflc hoa trien vgng nay ddi hdi khong it nd liic ca tfl phia Nga lan phia '^rung Quo'c, phai cd dieu kien qud'c te va tinh hinh kinh te the gidi thuan ldi. 0 Trung Qud'c ngfldi ta ndi rang: "Trien vgng sang lan nhflng con dfldng khue khuyu gid'ng nhfl Van ly trfldng thanh vfldt qua deo do'c va sa mac". Nhflng can phai tien theo con dfldng nay bdi le sfl van ddng dd se vi quyen ldi ciia nflde Nga, vi quyen ldi eiia ca hai nflde Nga- Trung.
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CHU THICH:
1. Nhan dan Nhat bao-onlme, ngay 24/01/2008.httD://russianl.peoDle.com.cn/315
18/6344411.html
2. httDs://www.cia.gov/librarv/publicati ons/the-world-factbook/geos/cb.html#Econ
3. Tai lieu da din.
4. Nhan dan Nhat bao-onbne, ngay 21/10/2007
5. Mao Trach Dong. Tuyen tap. Bdc Kinh, 1972, tr. 183-184.
6. http://englisb.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle /statistic/ie/200802/20080205371690.html
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