CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 02-2019 35
KINH re-XA HOI
NGUYEN NHAN GIA TANG THAM HUT THU'OfNG MAI HIEN NAY CUA MY
Fham Thi Hieu*
Tom tat: Thdm hut thuang mgi hdng hda vd dich vu ciia My vdi phdn cdn lai ciia thi gidi dd vuat miec 600 ty USD trong 2018, tdng han 100 ty USD so vai nam truac dd thay vi giam xudng nhu mong mudn cita Tdng thdng Donald Trump. Mac dii chinh quyen ciia Tdng thdng Donald Trump da de ra nhieu bien phdp nhdm gidm thdm that thuong mgi, tuy nhien trong 2 ndm vieg qua, tinh trgng thdm hut thuang mgi cua My vdn tiep tuc gia tdng, thgm chi miec tdng cdn nhieu hem nhieng ndm trudc. Tren co sd phdn tich quan diem vd nhihig bien phdp gidm thdm hut thuang mgi da duac thuc hien
bdi chinh quyen Trummp, bdi viet dua ra mot sd nhan dinh ve nguyen nhan ddn den thuc trgng thdm hut thuang mgi hien nay ciia nen kinh te My.
Tir khda: My, chinh quyen Tramp, nguyen nhan, tham hyt thuong mai 1. Quan diem ciia chinh quyen
Trump ve tham hut thiromg mai Ke ttt chien djch tranh ett Tdng thdng My* nam 2016, thuang mai da dugc coi la mdt teong nhirng mdi quan tam chinh cua irng cu vidn dang Cdng hda Donald Tramp. 6ng cho rang, tham hut thuong mai la dieu khd cd thi chap nhan va giam tham hyt thuang mai la mgt teong nhiing muc tieu cin dugc dat len hang dau teong chinh sach thuong mai. Lap Man cua dng Tramp la khi nude My chju tham hyt thuong mai vdi qudc gia nao do, thi don gian chi can ap thue cao dl chan lai, die la thang Igi. Qua dd, doanh nghiep ndi dja cua My se bdt chju ap lye canh teanh hon, va se md rgng san xuit, tao nhieu viec lam cho ngudi My.
Tramp dd Idi cho cac hiep djnh thuang mai ty do khu vyc va chinh sach thuang mai "khdng cdng bing" cua Trang Qudc la nguydn nhan gay ra tinh teang tham hyt thuang mai khdng Id cua My.
Trong thdi gian teanh cir, dng Tramp da dat muc tieu giam tham hut thuang mai bang each dam phan lai, tham chi buy bd cac hiep djnh ty do thuong mai da ky kit ma dng cho rang phan thiet thdi thugc vl cac dganh nghiep va ngucri lag ddng My. 6ng tayen bd hiiy bd ngay lap tiic Hiep djnh Ddi tac xuyen Thai Binh Duong (TPP), dga se huy bd Hiep djnh Thuong mai Tu do Bic My (NAFTA, gdm Canada, My va Mexico) da thye thi tir nam 1994. Ong ciing nhilu lin de dga se ap thul trimg phat
* T/ipn Nshien ciru Chdu A^
36 CHAU MYNGAYNAY_
vdi miic 45% len hang hda nhap khau tu Trang Quoc, ap thue dieu chinh d bien gidi doi vdi hang hda nhap khau bat chip sy phan ddi cua cac tap doan kinh doanh nhu Walmart va cac hiep hdi ngudi tieu dung...
Quan dilm cua Donald Tramp dya teen hgc thuylt kinh t l cua chu nghia trgng thugng cho ring, thuong mai nhu la mdt trd choi vdi tdng sd bang khdng, nghia la mdt qudc gia cd the dugc Igi thdng qua xuit khiu nhung se mat di nlu nd phai nhap khiu nhieu hem. Do dd, viec khuyen khich xuat khau va ban chi nhap khau la nhung cdng cu Myet vdi de lam giau cho mgi qudc gia.
Ngay tir khi nham chire, Tdng thdng My Donald Tmmp da ludn de cap den tinh teang nhap sieu cd xu hudng gia tang, nguyen do la san xuat va xuat khau ciia My ngay cang giam, trong khi nhap khiu lai tang. Cung vdi dd la tinh trang thit nghiep d cac nganh cdng nghiep che tao, khai khoang, san xuat hang tieu dung. Ong cho rang nguyen nhan eda tinh teang nay la do cac hiep djnh thuang mai tu do ma My da ky ket va tinh trang canh tranh khdng cdng bing cua mdt sd qudc gia.
Chinh vi vay, trong chuyen cdng du diu tien sang chau Au, dng Tramp da de cap din chuyen nude Dire lien tuc xuat sieu vao My; hay nhu trong eugc hgi dam vdi Tdng thdng Han Qudc Moon Jae-in tai Nha Tring ngay 30/6/2017, dng Tramp da cdng khai than philn tinh teang xuit sieu cua nude nay va yeu cau
phai dilu chinh l?i. Ddi vdi Trang Qu^*^' dng da chi dao Bd Thuang mai My nghien ciru ap dat mii:e thul 20% 1^"
mat hang thep nhap khiu tir Trang Q""'^
bat chap y kiln bit ddng cua cac bg tradng trong chinh phu cung nhu cac nha san xuat xe hoi, may bay, tau bien ciia My. Ddi vdi Hiep dinh Ty do Thuong mai Bic My (NAFTA) gitta My, Canada va Mexico, Tdng thdng Donald Tramp ludn coi la hiep djnh tdi te nhit tit trudc ddn nay. Ong Tmmp do Idi NAFTA da cudp di viec lam cua nganh san xuat My. Do dd, dng da yeu cau Bd Thuang mai My sdm tien hanh dam phan lai vdi Canada va Mexico.
Nhu vay cd thi thiy, giam muc tham hut thuang mai la mdt myc tieu quan trgng ciia Chinh quyln Tramp. Muc tieu nay ludn thdng nhit vdi nhiing toyen bo ve "nude My tedn hit" cung nhu nhttng quan diem vl tham hut thuang mai dugc dng Tramp lap di lap lai trong qua trinh van dgng teanh cu tu nam 2016.
2. Mot si bien phap giam tham hut ban dau
Nhim dat muc tieu vl giam tham hut thuong mai, Chinh quyln Donald Tmmp da thuc tM mgt sd bien phap sau.
Cac bien phdp tdng thai nhap khdu- Bdi vai pin mat trdi vd may gigt dUn dung. Ngay 23/1/2018, My da ap thul 30% ddi vdi tam pin mat trdi nhap khiu Thul suit ban diu ddi vdi tim pin - trdi nhap khiu vao thj tradng My ^ 30%, sau do se giam din xudng 150/
CHAU MY NGAY NAY 37 ttong vdng 4 nam'. Ddng thoi, chinh
quyln My ciing danh thul nhap khiu đi vdi may gijt dan dung vdi miic thul 20% cho 1,2 teieu may giat nhap khiu diu tien va 50% cho cac may giat nhap khau tilp theộ
Viec danh thue đi vdi may gisit va pin mat ttdi dya teen ca sd cac cuoc dieu tea cua Uy ban Thuong m£ii qudc te My (United States International Trade Commission - USITC) dugc phat đng tir gitta nam 2017 theo Muc 301 Luat Thuong mai My 1974 va Mye 232 Luat Thuong mai My md rgng 1962'. Tap doan Whirlpool cua My da de don kien len ITC cao budc, may giat nhap khau vao thi tracmg My da tang gap đi teong giai dỏui 20I2-20I6 tit 1,6 teieu len 3,21 teieu chilé'. Cdn Tap doan Whirlpool ciia My cao budc viec tim pin nang lugng mat ttdi nhap khiu vao thj tradng My teong thdi gian qua da cMlm linh thj phan dang kl cua cac nha san xuit ttong nudẹ May giat nhap khiu va pin nhap khau da lam cho cac nha san xuat ttong nude roi vao tinh teang khd khan.
Ddi vdi nhdm vd thep: Theo danh gia eda Bg Thuong mai My, mdt trong sd nhiing mat hang dugc xem la linh vyc quan trgng nhat ma My nhap khau la cac san pham nhdm, thep. Do đ, Bd Thuang mai My da hdi thiic Tdng thdng Donald Tramp ap dat muc thue cao hoac ban ngaeh đi vdi san pham nhdm, thep nhap khaụ Ly do dugc dua ra la cac san pham nhap khau nay "de dga an ninh qudc gia My".
Ngay 8/3/2018, Tdng thdng My Donald Tramp taydn bd se tang thul nhap khau đi vdi hai mat hang chiln luge la thep va nhdm, theo Muc 232 ciia Luat Thuong mai Md rgng 1962: Thul nhap khiu tang 25% đi vdi thep va tang 10% đi vdi nhdm. Mdt dilm dang luu y la Trang Qudc khdng nam ttong danh sach nhiing nude xuat khiu nhidu thep vao My, nhung lai la qudc gia san xuat thep Idn nhat the gidị Phia My cho rang thep cua Trang Qudc da qua nude thd ba trade khi tdi Mỵ
Dam phdn lai cdc Hi^p dinh thtrtmg mgi khu vifc vd song phucmg
Thay the NAFTA bdng USMCA: Dong thdi vdi viec nit khdi TPP, Tdng thdng Donald Tramp cung ky sac lenh ve viec dam phan lai NAFTA - la hiep djnh thuong mai ty do gitta ba qudc gia Idn nhat d khu vyc Bac My la My, Canada va Mexicọ Trade do, dng Tramp cho ring, NAFTA la mdt thda thuIn thuong mai tdi te đi vdi nin kinh tl My, la mdt teong nhiing tac nhan gay ra mttc tham hut thuong mai khdng Id cua My va lay di nhilu viec lam ciia ngudi lao đng My teong nhttng nam quá.
Sau khi chinh quyln My dl nghj dam phan lai NAFTA, ngay 30/11/2018, cac nha lanh dao My, Mexico va Canada da chinh thiic ky Hiep djnh thuong mai My - Mexico - Canada, vilt tit la USMCA, thay thi cho NAFTẠ
USMCA van gitt lai nhung ndi dung CO ban cua NAFTẠ Tuy nhien, so vdi NAFTA, USMCA se cd sy thay đi
38 CHAU M? N G A Y N ^ ddi vdi linh vuc d td, md cua thi tradng Dac biet, vdi USMCA, vin dl thul se bo stta, cac chinh sach vd tieu chuin dugc xem xet thda thuan rieng. USMCA mdi tradng va lao ddng, quydn sd huu ve co ban se loai bd cac loai thul tra diia tei toe va mdt sd dilu khoan ve thuong ma cac qudc gia thanh vien cua hiep mai dien tu, giai quylt tranh chap. djnh nay ap dat ddi vdi nhau.
Trong linh vuc san xuit d td, dida Vi vay, hiep dinh thuang mai ba ben thuan nay giup Canada va Mexico teanh nay dugc ky vgng se diy manh tang bi danh thul nhap khiu d td nlu nhu hai tradng kinh t l d Bic My, tao dilu kien nude nay xuit khiu dudi 2,6 teieu d td cho ngudi lao dgng ve co hgi viec lam va mdi nam. Thda thuan mdi nay yeu ciu miic luong tdt hon, giiip tang mire sdng dl dugc miln thul, 75% gia tei cua d td cua ngudi dan d ca ba qudc gia thanh phai dugc san xuit teong khu vyc vien, giup My giam ap lye tham hut NAFTA thay vi 62,5% nhu trade day. thuong mai hang hda va duy tri dn djnh Ddng thdi, thda thuan nay sua ddi cac kinh te, chinh tej teong khu vyc, ngan can quy djnh ve lao ddng, teong dd yen cau su tang cudng tiep can thj tradng Bic 30% cdng viec trong cac cdng doan san My cua hang hda tu Trang Qudc.
xuit d td phai dugc thye Men bdi nhung Hiep dinh Thuang mgi Tir do A^ - ngudi lao ddng cd muc tien cdng it nhat Han Qudc: K l tir sau khi hiep djnh 16 USD/gid, kl tu nam 2020 va ty le thuong mai ty do My - Han Qudc dudi nay se la 40% vao nam 2023 . thdi Tdng thdng Obama dugc ky kit vao USMCA se md ra co hdi cbo ngudi nam 2012, quy md tham hyt thuong mai nong dan My teong viec tiep can thi cia My vdi Han Qudc da tang hon gip tradng bo stta Canada. Ngoai ra, hai lin, tir 13,2 ty USD nam 2011 len USMCA cung dilu chinh mdt so ndi 27,6 ty USD nam 2016'. Phia My cbo dung lien quan din linh vyc ky thuat so, ring, nguyen nhan din din tham hyt bao ve ban quyln sd huu tei Me, giai thuong mai gitta My va Han Qudc la do quylt tranh chip, cac dieu kien ve mdi Chinh phii Han Qudc da dyng len nhilu teudng va lao ddng, cac loai thue quan hang rao phi thul quan, ching ban nhu khac'. Hiep djnh mdi nay se miln thul cac tieu chuin vl khi thai va an toan d ' ' 3,6% teong tong gia tej thj teudng bo stta vdi mat hang nhap khiu d td.
ddi vdi cac nha san xuat va ndng dan Dudi sire ep cua My va vdi su nhu My, so vdi 3,25% theo quy djnh cua bd cua Chinh phu Han Quoc th' Hiep djnh Ddi tac toan dien va Tien bd 9/2018, hai qudc gia da ky kit Hi" /r h xuyen Thai Binh duong (CPTPP)'. Ddi Thuong mai Ty do My - Han Qu6 •
I.,; X^,T ..s f.lirt nKiin f . n / ' c a n n h a m tir d a n d n i i l f f~lRt TQ^"' P\.1,. ..A ,i_-
lai. My se cho phep cac san pham tu dau ddi (KORUS)'". Day cd thi coi Ij thang phdng va bo sila cua Canada vao thj Igi dau tien teong dam phan FTA teudng My nhilu hem phuong cua Chinh quyln Tramp.
CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 02-2019 Hiep djnh thuong mai stta ddi gitta My va Han Qudc trade bet se keo dai flidi gian ap thul ddi vdi xe ban tai nhap khau tu Han Qudc ttong 20 nam ntta, din nam 2041, nang han miic nhap khiu d td tu My khdng phai Man thu cac quy djnh teong nude nham tao dieu kien md c^a thj tradng tieu thy cua Han Qudc cho cac nha san xuat d td cua My. Ddng thdi, Chinh phu Han Qudc ciing se ndi long hon cac tieu chuin ve khi thai ddi vdi d td nhap khiu teong giai doan 2021-2025, don gian hda cac quy dinh ve mdi tradng kinh doanh ddi vdi d td nh|p khau ttt My. Theo Hidp djnh sua ddi, Han Qudc chip thuan tang gap ddi sd lugng xuit khiu d td cua My vao thj tradng Han Qudc len miic 50.000 xe ddi vdi mdi nha san xuat hang nam va ap dung cac tieu chuan an toan cua My thay cho cac tieu chuin an toan eda Han Qudc nhu hi$p djnh KORUS trade day.
sen canh do, Han Qudc se edng nhan cac tieu chuin ciia My ddi vdi phy timg d td cin thiet dl dimg cho d td dugc san xuat tai My. Thdng qua vide hai hda cac tieu chuan ddi vdi chat lugng va an toan eda d td xuat khau, KORUS sura ddi cd thi giiip My day manh xuit khau d td sang thj tradng Han Qudc, giam ap luc tham hyt thuang mai trong linh vyc d td.
Trong linh vyc dugc pham, Han Quoc se didu chinh chinh sach djnh gia cao ddi vdi cac loai dugc phim nhap khiu tu nude ngoai de dam bao sy cdng bing khdng phan biet ddi xu vdi cac loai dugc phim nhap khau tu My. Ngoai ra.
hai bdn cung dieu chinh cac quy djnh vl giai quylt tranh chip dl dam bao tinh edng bang va minh bach teong cac vu kien thuang mai"-
Cimg vdi Myen bd chung vd viec dat dugc thda thuan sua ddi KORUS, My va Han Qudc da ddng y ve dieu kien de Han Qudc dugc hudng miln trit thul nhap khiu thep 25% theg Muc 232 Luat Thuong mai My md rgng nam 1962.
Theo do, xuat khau' thep eda Han Qudc vao thj tradng My se phai chju mdt muc ban ngaeh Mong duong vdi 70% lugng nhap khau san pham thep trung binh hang nam cua giai doan 2015-2017' . Vdi dieu kien nay, Han Qudc cd the dugc mien tru thul nhap khiu thep ciia My, song vin cd thi dat muc tidu giam nhap khau thep cua Han Qudc sang My.
Hiep dinh Thutmg mgi Tir do My - Nhdt Bdn (USJTA). Nhat Ban la quoc gia cd quy md kinh t l Idn thil ba thi gidi va diing thd ba teong sd cac qudc gia ma My nhap sidu nhieu nhit. Sy mat can bing thuctng mai eda My vdi Nhat Ban ngay cang tang, dac biet la ttong Iinh vyc d td, la nguyen nhan khiln dng Tramp cho ring cac nganh cdng nghiep cua Nhat Ban da liy di nhilu viec lam cua ngudi lao dgng My va cho rang cac tieu chuin v l mdi teTtdng, tieu chuan ky thuat kbit khe cua Chinh phu Nhat Ban da tao ra nhung rao can ve thuong mai ddi vdi d td va phy tiing d td eda Nhat Ban. Chinh phu My da tiln hanh dilu tra va de dga danh thul vdi d td nhap khiu tir Nhat Ban.
40 SO 02-2019 CHAU MY NGAYNAY.
Trudc sue ep cua My ve viec giam tham hut thuong mai hang hda, dac biet la tham hut hang hda teong linh vyc d td va viec My de dga danh thud nhap khau ddi vdi d td, ngay 27/9/2018, Nhat Ban da phai nhugng bd va ddng y dam phan song phuong vdi My''
Ngay 21/12/2018, My da dua ra muc tieu dam phan cua Hiep dinh USJTA la giai quyet ca hang rao thue quan va phi thue quan de dat dugc thuong mai cdng bang va can bang hon gitta hai nude.
My cho rang, se bao dam quyen miln thud ddi vdi cac san pham det may ciia My va tim each cai thien co hgi canh teanh xuat khau cac san pham det may cua My, trong khi tinh den sy nhay cam hang nhap khau cua My teong qua trmh dam phan' . Hien nay, Hiep djnh dang trong giai doan dam phan va chua kit thuc. Neu Hiep djnh nay dugc ky kit, tham hut thuong mai hang hda teong ITnh vyc d td va hang det may ciia My ddi vdi Nhat Ban dugc thu hep.
Hiep dinh Thuang mgi Tie do My - EU. Hiep djnh ddi tac thuong mai va dau M xuyen Dai Tay Duong (TTIP) gitta My va EU da dugc dam phan dudi thdi Tdng thdng Obama, song thda thuan nay da di vao bd tac do nhttng bat ddng quan diem gitta hai ben. Sau khi Tdng thdng Donald Tramp len nham chuc, dng the hien each tiep can song phuong ddi vdi thuong mai kha rd rang thdng qua mong mudn dam phan cac FTA vdi timg nude thanh vien EU, My nhien theo quy dinh cua EU thi didu nay
la khdng thi, vi vay Hoa Ky da dl xuat dam phan FTA vdi EU. Ngoai ra, My cung cho thiy mong mudn dam phan FTA vdi Vuang qudc Anh sau khi qudc gia nay rdi khdi Brexit.
Bam phdn thuang mgi v&i Trung Quoc
Tu nam 2011, tham hut fliuong mai My - Trung ludn duy in d miic trdn 300 ty USD va cd xu hudng nghidm ttgng hon qua timg nam. Theo bao cao cua Co quan Thdng ke Trung uong My, tham hut thuong mai ciia My ddi vdi Trang Quoc dat 375 ty USD ttong nam 2017.
Con sd teen xuat phat tu gia trj hang hda khdng Id Trung Qudc xuit khiu vao My.
Chinh vi vay, cac eugc dilu tea vi pham thuong mai va ap dat thul doi vdi hang hda nhap khau chu ylu nhim vao Trung Qudc, doi tac cd diam hyt thuong mai Idn nhat vdi My teong nhilu nam qua.
Ngay 22/3/2018, Chinh quyln Trump tuyen bd danh thul ddi vdi 50 ty USD hang hda xuit khiu cua Trang Quoc vao thj teudng My'^ My ban hanh Idnh cim nhap khau ddi vdi cdng ty viln thdng ZTE ciia Trang Qudc sau khi phat hien edng ty nay ban hang hda bao gdm cdng nghe cua My cho Iran va ZTE da phai tea cho My miic tiln phat hang ty do la'^
Ngay 6/7/2018, Chinh phii My quylt dinh danh thul 25% ddi vdi hang hoa nhap khau cua Trang Qudc tri eia 14 K USD. Ngay 17/9/2018, My q ^ - . ; . ^ ap thul bd sung 10% len cac
"lat hang nhap khiu cila Trung Qu6c vao th' teudng My tej gia 200 ty USD mdi nam'
CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 02-2019 miic thul bd sung se tang len 25% sau ngay 1/1/2019" Tuy nhien, din ngay 1/12/2018, chinh quyen My va Trung Qudc da dat dugc thda thuan dinh cMen thuang mai teang thdi ban 90 ngay. Ngay 7/1/2019, cac quan chuc My va Trang Qudc da quyet djnh ngdi vao ban dam phan de thuong lugng ve cac van de thuong mai My - Trang Qudc trade thdi gian dinh chien ket thuc va du kidn se cd eude gap gitta hai nude vao cudi thang 3 nam 2019. Cac van de dugc dua ra thao Man bao gdm: tai san tri Me, Hwawei va cdng nghe 5G, chien luge "Made in China 2025" eda Trang Qudc, nang lugng, hang hda nhap khiu, thud quan ddi vdi d td, quyen tiep can thj teudng cho cac nganh hang'^
3. Mdt so nguyen nhan lam gia tang tham hyt thirong mai
Mac du, muc tieu cat giam tham hyt thuang mai da dugc Chinh quyen Donald Tramp dat len hang dau trong viec hoach djnh chinh sach thuang mai va da trien khai ngay hang loat cac bien phap nham khac phyc tinh trang nay.
Tuy nhien, tham hut thuong mai cua My khdng nhirng khdng giam ma van tidp tuc tang teong nam 2017 va 2018.
Cac bien phap gay sue ep ve ty gia hdi doai va cac bien phap thue quan cua Chinh quyen Donald Tramp dudng nhu khdng cd tac dyng ddi vdi Trang Qudc, khi tham hut thuong mai cua My vdi Trang Qudc, da tang tu 345 ty USD nam 2016 len 375,58 ty USD nam 2017 va
tang manh len 419,16 ty USD teong nam 2018. Bat chap nhimg nd luc nhim giam tham hyt thuong mai thdng qua md eda thj tradng Bac My, tham hut thuang mai cua My vdi Mexico va Canada tiep tac gia tang. Tham hut thuong mai cua My vdi Canada tu 11,05 ty USD nam 2016 tang len 17,05 ty USD nam 2017 va tilp tuc tang len 19,75 ty USD nam 2018.
Tham hut thuang mai cua My vdi Mexico cung tang tu 63,87 ty USD nam 2016 len 70,95 ty USD nam 2017 va tilp tuc tang len 81,52 nam 2018. Tuy nhien, tham hyt thuong mai cua My vdi hai qudc gia ddng minh d chau A la Han Qudc va Nhat Ban lai cd xu hudng giam xudng. Vdi nhiing nd lye md cua thj traimg d td cua Han Qudc va sttc ep giam tham hyt thuong mai vdi Nhat Ban, tham hut thuang mai cua My vdi Han Quoc giam tu 27,58 ty USD nam 2016 xudng cdn 23,12 ty USD nam 2017 va 17,95 ty USD nam 2018. Tham hyt thuong mai cua My vdi Nhat Ban giam nhe tir 68,80 ty USD nam 2016 xuong cdn 67,63 ty USD nam 2018"
Nhu vay, cd thi thay mac dil da thye thi cac bien phap manh me nham cat giam tham hut thuong mai, nhung hai nam vua qua, chinh quyln cua Tdng thdng Donald Tramp da khdng dat dugc muc tieu nay. Hiep dinh USMCA dugc ky vgng nhit cung da khdng lam giam dugc tham hut thuong mai vdi Canada va Mexico, tham chi cdn cd xu hudng gia tang. Thye trang nay cd the la do mgt sd nguydn nhan chu yeu sau:
SO 02-2019 CHAU MY NGAY NAY_
Thii nhdt, nguyen nhan eg ban mang tinh dai ban phia sau tham hut fliuong mai dai ding d My chinh la ty le tiet kiem thap cua My so vdi the gidi va su'c hap dan ciia nude My vdi M each mdt diem din dl diu M - mdt phan xuat phat tu vai ted cua ddng dd la My la ddng tien dy trtt the gidi. Vai ted nay da khien ddng do la My cd xu hudng manh len so vdi cac ddng tiln khac, din tdi giam chi pM hang hda nhap khau vao My va tang gia hang hda My xuat khau ra nude ngoai, khien tham hyt thuong mai My gia tang.
Do v^y, cac bi^n phap teien khai chinh sach thuong mai ciia Chinh quyln Trump dil cd thye thi di chang ntta thi cung chua the thu h?p dugc tham hut thuong mai eda nude nay teong ngan ban.
Thie hgi, mac du cac bien phap teien khai chinh sach teen cua Chinh quyln Truihp tap trung vao nhiing ddi tac va linh vyc ma My dang cd tham hut thuang mji Idn nhit, nhung quan dilm cua Tramp dya teen co sd thuong mai cdng bing, tuc la My ddi hdi cac qudc gia khac md cua cbo hang xuat khiu cua My, thi ngugc lai cac nude khac cung ddi My ciing phai md cua cho hang xuit khau cua hg. Mat khac, ban chit ciia fliam hut Uiuong mai eda My la do tham hut thuong m?i hang hda. Theo ly thuyet Igi thi so sanh ttong san xuat hang hda, nhttng hang hda dang dugc nhap khau vao My la nhirng hang hda nude nay khdng cd Igi the san xuat. Dg dd, xu hudng nhap khau bang hda van tang ndu nhu ciu teong nude khdng giam.
Thu ba, do viec hien khai cac bien phap nhim cit giam tham hut thucmg mai ciia Chinh quyln Donald Tramp mdi bat diu cd hieu lye ttt gitta nam 2018. Do tinh hieu qua cua chinh sach thudng cd dd ttl nhit djnh, vi vay, nhttng bien phap nay khd cd thi tac ddng ngay ddi vdi can can thuong mai eda My trong hai nam vua qua.
Thii tu, chinh sach thuong mai cua chinh quyen Tramp ciing dugc cho la nguyen nhan lam gia tang tham hyt thuong mai My teong 2018. Thue quan ma My dga ap va sau dd la ap th|t len hang hda Trang Qudc da khien cac nha nhap khau My diy nhanh vifc nhan hang tir ddi tac Trang Qudc hirdc khi viec ap thul dugc ttiln khai. Ben epih dd, fliul quan ma Trang Qudc ap len hang My dl tra dua da khiln xuit khiu nhieu mat hang ndng san My, djc biet la dau Mong, sut giam manh. Ngoai ra, chinh sach thuong mai cling rin ciia dng Tramp da gay lo ngai d Trang Qudc va cac nude chau Au, khiln cac nen kinh tl nay giam tdc, keo theo nhu cau ddi vdi hang hda My.
Thii ndm, mdt nguyen nhan ntta khiln tham hut fliuong mai My tang len trong hai nam qua la do chinh sach ndi Idng tai khda didng qua chuong teinh giam thue cua Chinh quyln Tmmp, dilu nay da khuyen khich chi tieu d My. Cac ' dinh se tang fleu thu cac san phim tfeu dung va doanh nghiep tang tieu thu san pham dau tu. Ben canh dd viec nA; i • A-: .1. tl. . . . '";'-noi long dieu tiet doi vol boat dgng kinh doanh
CHAU M f NGAYNAY SO 02-2019 43 ciing kich thich chi tieu dau tu. Vi tham
hyt thuang mai la do chi tieu vugt qua san xuat, nen chi tieu tang se dan den tham hut thuang mai Idn ban. Thye te la nen kinh te My da tang trudng manh len nhd chinh sach nay khiln ddng dd la My tang gia, lam tang nhap khau va giam xuit khiu.
Thu sdu, viec Cue Dy trtt Lien bang My (Fed) huge phai tang lai suit de kilm soat ty le lam phat da thu hut ddng vdn ttt nude ngoai do vao My va khien ddng dd la len gia. Nhttng thay ddi teong ty gia hdi doai ciing giai thich mdi quan he gitta chi tieu va tham hyt thucmg mai.
Ddng dd la manh hon se khien hang hda cua My xuat khau sang nude ngoai dit hon va hang hda nude ngoai nhap khau vao My re ban. Chinh Tdng thdng Donad Tramp da dd Idi cho Fed khi cho ring viec Fed nang lai suit khiln ddng dd la My manh len da lam suy ylu vj thi ciia dng teong chien teanh thuang mai va can trd tang trudng kinh te My.
Ket luan:
Theo ly thuylt kinh te ciia Tdng thdng Donald Tramp, tham hut thuang mai khien My trd thanh ke thua eugc teong thuang mai qudc td, vi vay myc tieu cua dng la giam tham hut thuang mai thdng qua cac bien phap "cu the"
nhu la: tai dam phan hiep djnh thuong mai ty do, ap thue quan len thep va nhdm, va de dga va ap thue nhap khau vao hang ty dd la hang hda Trang Qudc. Tuy nbidn, nhttng bien phap nay
dudng nhu cd hieu qua khdng dang kl vdi viec giam tham hut thuong mai hien nay.
Tu khi cdn tranh cu Tdng flidng My, dng Tramp ludn chi trich mu:c tham hut thuong mai khdng Id cua My va cd gang tim bien phap dl giam mire tham hut nay xudng. Tuy nhien, tham hut thuong mai giam chua chae ddng nghia vdi mgt ndn kinh tl tdt. Mdt vi du diln hinh la tham hyt thuong m?i My giam manh chua timg thiy vao nam 2009, vdi muc giam ban 300 ty USD trong vdng mgt nam, va dd la kit qua eda suy thoai kinh te gay syt giam nhu cau cua nude My ddi vdi hang hda nhap khiu.
Ngoai ra, tham hyt thuong mai thye ra khdng cd lien quan nhilu din chinh sach thuong mai, ma thay vao dd lien quan nhieu han den cac chinh sach kinh te VI md. Vi vay, Tdng thdng Tramp khdng nhit thilt phai lya chgn giam tham hut thuang mai lam muc tidu. Ddi khi, nhirng sang kien chinh sach cua dng se day tinh hudng theg hudng ngugc lai. NhOng tac ddng tu tinh trang fliam hut thuang mai hien nay chi nen la mdi lo ngai thtt yeu •
Chii thich:
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ll.Marex (2018), US and South Korea Aagree Auto Trade Deal, The Maritime Executive, tniy cap t?i trang web https://www,maritime- executive.com/article/u-s-and-south-korea-agree- auto-trade-deal
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68659a66-30a8-lle8-b5bf-23cbl7fdl498 13.Matthew Pennington (2018), U.S, Japan agree to
negotiate a free trade agreemel, AP News, truy cap ngay 30/11/2018, t^i trang web https://www.apnews.coni/386aeb73a3e24dc4bl e83af4f87572cc
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donald-trump-china-tariffs-trade-war/index.html 16.Andrew Mayeda va Ian King (2018), U.S. Cuts
Off China's ZTE From American Tech for Seven Years, Bloomberg, truy c^p ngay 20/08/2018, t^l trang web https://www.bloomberg.com/news/
articles/2018-04-16/conimerce-blocks-china-s- zte-from-exporting-technology-from-u-s n.Office of the United States Trade Representative
(2018), USTR Finalizes Tariffs on $200 Billion of Chinese Imports in Response to China's Unfair Trade Practices, truy c^p ngjky 30/10/2018, tai trang web https://ustr.gov/about- us/policy-offices/press-ofrice/press-releases/2018 /september/ustr-fmalizes-tariffs-200
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