NGHI6N CCfU THU'C NGHIEM - KINH NGHIEM
NHAN TO ANH HlTCJNG DfiN QUYET DINH THAM GIA BAO HIEM CAY LUA CUA NONG HO 0 TINH HA TINH
Hoang Trifu Huy Ho Minh Toan Tdm tdt: Sdn xudt lua ggo thudng phdi ddi mat vai nhiiu rui ro do thien tai, sau benh gay ra. Nhdn thirc duac vai trd cua bdo hiim ndng nghiep trong viec khac phuc hdu qud do rHi ro gdy ra, Chinh phu dd ban hdnh Quyet dinh 315/2011/QD-TTg de thi diem bdo hiem cdy Ida giai dogn 2011-2013 tai Hd Tinh vd 6 tinh khac trong cd mrac. Tuy nhiin, kit qud sau 2 ndm thuc Men chuong trinh thi diem cho thay sd luang hd tham gia bdo hiim cdn thdp, diin tich trong lita duac bdo hiim cdn it Muc tieu cua nghien ciru ndy Id xem xet cdc nhdn to dnh huang den quyit dinh tham gia bdo hiim cdy lita cita cdc hd thudc dien duac tham gia chuong trinh thi diim a tinh Hd Tinh. Kit qud nghiin ciru cho thdy: Ndng hg de huy ddng ngudn lyre lao dgng gia dinh, tham gia cdc chuang trinh tap hudn vi ky thuat sdn xudt, cd tdi sdn sdn xudt Ion, duoc vay vdn, cd quy md sdn xudt vd chi phi cho sdn xudt lan thuang cd xu huang tham gia bdo hiim cdy lita; trong khi dd, do tuoi hay gioi tinh cita chii ho khdng cd y nghia trong quyet dinh tham gia bdo hiim.
Tir khda: Bdo hiim cdy liia; ndng nghiep; Hd Tinh.
Dat vSn de
Hang nam, nganh ndng nghiep Viet Nam thudng phai ganh chiu nhigu thiet bai do thien tai, sau, dich benh gay ra. Theo Pham Thi Dinh (2013), Viet Nam dimg thir ba va la mgt tiong bdn nude chiu anh hudng manh me nhat ciia hien tugng khi hau cue doan trong bai thap nien gan day. Theo thdng ke ciia Lien hgp qudc, Viet Nam dung thii sau trong cac qudc gia chiu thiet hai nang ne do thien tai, dich benh, vdi miic thiet hai len tdi 1,8 ty USD mdi nam. Hau qua cua cac rui ro trong ndng nghiep lam tdn hai dSn nang luc san xuat, giam ngudn thu nhap, tac ddng tieu cue den boat ddng san xuat va ddi sdng cua ndng dan.
De khSc phuc hau qua, bao hiem (BH) ndng nghiep thudng dugc coi la mgt phuong tien hiiu hieu giup hd trg ngudi san xuat ndng nghiep bu dap thiet hai ve tai chinli, giup bao ve nang luc san xuat, gdp phan dn dinh an sinh xa hdi ndng thdn va thuc day san xuat ndng nghiep. Nhan thiic dugc tam quan trgng cua BH ndng nghiep, Chinh phii da
ban hanh Quyet dinh 315/2011/QD-TTg ngay 01/03/2011 dS thuc hien thi diem BH ndng nghiep d Viet Nam trong giai doan 2011-2013. Ha Tinh la mdt trong bay tinh, ciing vdi Nam Dinh, Thai Binh, Nghe An, Binh Thuan, Ddng Thap va An Giang, dugc chgn tham gia thuc bien tbi diem BH cho cay liia trong chuong trinh thi diem nay.
La mdt tinh nam d Bac Tmng Bd, Ha Tlnh thudng xuyen phai ddi mat vdi nhieu nii ro tiong san xuat ndng nghiep do su bien ddng bat thudng cua thdi tiet, khi hau cung nhu cua cac dot sau, dich benh. Do do, BH cay lua dugc ky vgng la mgt phuang tien hieu qua de phan tan nii ro va giiip bao ve nang lire san xuat cho cac hd tidng liia a day. Ba huyen Cam Xuyen, Diie Thg va Huang Khe cua tinh Ha Tinh dugc chgn de thuc hien thi diem BH cay liia. Tuy nhien, nhirng danh gia ban dau ve chuang trinh thi di6m BH cay lua d day sau 2 nam thue hien cho thay: sd lugng hd ndng dan tham gia BH cdn thap, dien tieh liia dugc BH con it. Nguyen nhan din den ket qua chua nhu mong dgi bao gom ea nhiing bat cap ve quy dinh phap ly
PHAT T R I E N B E N VCfNG VCJNG Q U Y E N 9, s o 3 (9/2019)
Hoang TriSu Huy - Ho Minh Toan Nhan to anh huong...
ciing nhu tam ly cdn e de, chua man ma vdi chuong trinh nay cua cac doanh nghiep BH va cua cac ho trdng lua. Tuy nhien, viec tim hieu cac nhan t6 anh hudng dSn su tham gia chuong trinh BH cay lua cua hd de cd nhung chinh sach thich hgp cdn kha han che.
Xuat phat tir thuc tien tien, muc tieu ciia nghien ciiu nay la phan tieh, danh gia eac nhan td anh hudng den quyet dinh tham gia BH cay lua cua cac hg ndng dan thugc dien dugc tham gia chuong trinh thi diem BH cay lua d Huong Khe, Ha Tinh.
Tiep theo phan dat van de, phan phucmg phap nghien cuu se trinh bay md hinh ly thuyet, md binh nghien ciiu thuc nghiem va ngudn sd lieu dugc sir dung. Tiep den, thuc trang trien khai thi diem BH cay lua va ket qua udc lugng duge trinh bay d phan ket qua nghien cuu. Dua tien ket qua nghien Cliu, mdt sd nhan xet ket luan dugc dua ra d phan cudi bai viet.
2. Phirong phap nghiSn cihi 2.1. Md hinh ly thuyet
Mo hinh ly thuyet ve quyet dinh tham gia BH cua bd dugc dua tien gia dinh cac hd ndng dan tim each toi da hda do thda dung ky vgng thdng qua viec lua chgn cac nhan td san xuat, ke ea phi BH cay tidng, trong dieu kien ngudn luc khan hiem vacdng nghe san xu4t bi gidi han (Sherrick va cdng su, 2004). De di den quygt dinh cd mua BH hay khdng, cac hg se so sanh miic thda dung giiia viec mua va khdng mua, sau dd chgn phuang an cd miic thda dung cao nhat. Ndi each khac, bd se udc lugng mice tieu diing cd thi dgt duac cho timg trudng hgp va so sanh chung vdi nhau (Rue, 2009).
Gia su mang ludi an sinh xa hdi ndng thdn se dam bao cho hd cd muc tieu dimg tdi thieu w^^^. Theo do, miic tieu dung cd the dat dugc cua hd i khi mua BH cay lua se la (Rue, 2009):
(1) w] -Max[w^,^,_y,-C,-r-i-TT-i-aJ
vdi y, la doanh thu, C, la chi phi, r la phi BH, TT la gia tri ky vgng duge bdi thudng khi nii ro xay ra cho san xuat liia, a, la cac khoan thu nhap khdng tir san xuat liia Ngugc lai, neu khdng mua BH cay lua, miic tieu dimg cd the dat dugc cua hd se la:
,j. H;" = Max[w^,^, jv, - C^ -i- a. ] De quyet dinh mua BH hay khdng, hd se so sanh w] vdi H;" , ddng thdi danh gia miie do chac chan ciia mdi phuang an. Nhu vay, ngoai thai do ddi vdi rui ro, cac yen td anh hudng den quyet dinh mua hay khdng mua BH cho cay liia cua hg chinh la cae yeu td anh budng den mire tieu dung cd the dat dugc cua hd (w] va MP ) tiong (1) va (2). Cac yeu td nay thudng bao gdm dac diem ciia hd, dac diem cua boat ddng san xuat lua, miic phi BH, miic den bii hd cd kha nang nhan dugc va cac ySu td td chiic khac. Neu ggi x^ la vec to cac biSn giai thich cho cac yeu td anh hudng den den miic tieu dung cd the dat dugc d phuong trinh (1) va (2), va ky hieu AwJ =W, -w^ la su khac biet ve miic tieu dimg CO the dat dugc, md hinh phan tich cd the duac viet nhu sau:
(3) Aw* =x[p+a
tiong do £^ la sai sd ngau nhien dai dien cho yeu td khdng quan sat dugc nhung cd anh hudng len AWj , P la cac tham sd cua md hinh can phai udc lugng.
Vi miic chenh lech ve tieu dimg Aw, khdng quan sat dugc, viec udc lugng cac he sd P thdng qua bdi quy tuyen tinh khdng the thuc hien dugc.
Tuy nhien, quyet dinh cd tham gia bay khdng tham gia BH cua hd lai quan sat dugc va dang md hinh vdi bien phu thudc la bien nbi phan thudng duge ap dung trong trudng hgp nay. Cu the, Aw^ dugc nhan dien thdng qua bien phu thudc cd the quan sat
/, nhu sau:
1, hd tham gia BH cay lua, neu Aw* > 0 0, hd khdng tham gia BH cay liia, n8u Hi^v/l < 0 Do bien phu thudc f chi nhan mdt trong hai
gia tri 0 va 1, eac he sd ^ cd the dugc udc lugng thong qua md hinh probit neu £•, tuan theo quy
luat phan phdi chuan. Vdi md binh probit, xac suat de bd tham gia BH cay lua duge bleu dien qua cdngtbire sau:
PHAT T R I E N B E N VLJNG VCJNG Q U Y E N 9, sO 3 (9/2019)
NGHIEN ClJU THl/C NGHIEM - KINH NGHIEM
P r ( / , = 11 A:) = Pr{^w' > 0 | x )
= Pr(ff, > -x[l3) = vaiO,-(-) la ham phan phoi tich luy va^,(•) la ham mat do phan phoi. Tuy nhien, viec true tiep sir dung cac he so dugc u6c luong P de giai thich y nghTa ciia mo hinh la kha kho. Thong thudng, tac dgng bien se dugc tinh toan va dugc sir dung de giai thich thay cho cac he so uoc lugng /? dua theo cong thiic (Wooldridge, 2002):
(4,0 A
Sir dung phuang phap udc lugng hgp ly toi da (MLE), viec udc lugng cac he sd P ciJng nhu hieu ling bien ^,(-)^(.tir md hinh probit dugc trinh bay d tren la kha de dang.
2.2. Mo hinh thirc nghiem
Theo Makki va Somwaru (2001), cac nhan td nhu mire nii ro, phi bao hiem, su hd tig cua chinh phii, ky vgng miic chi tra khi riii ro xay ra va su san cd cua cac san pham dich vu bao hiem anh hudng den quyet dinh tham gia bao hiem cay trdng cua hd. Theo Mishra va Goodwin (2006), quyet dmh mua BH cua hd phu thudc cac nhan td nhu tudi, trinh do hgc van, quy md san xuat, dac diem Bang 1: BIEN GIAI THICH VA HUCiNG TAC DONG
^Pr(x',/3-\-£, >0) --Pr(£, <x',j3) = 0,(x',^)
tai chinh, dac diem boat ddng san xuat cua hd va cdng tac truySn thdng. Goodwin (1993) cho rang hai yeu td anh hudng manh nhat den nhu eau tham gia BH ndng nghiep cua ndng hd la dien tieh san xuat va tdng ehi phi san xuat.
Trong nghien ciru nay, quyet dinh tham gia chuong hinh thi diem BH cay liia cua bd dugc cho la bi chi phdi bdi cac yeu td lien quan den dac diem cua hd nhu: do tudi, gidi tinh eua chii hd, so thanh vien eiia hd; va cae yeu td lien quan den boat ddng san xuat cua hg nhu: kinh nghiem, tai san san xuat, kha nang vay vdn tir cac td chirc tin dung, dien tich trdng lua, nang suat lua binh quan va cac khoan chi phi cho san xuat liia (khdng tinh BH).
Rd rang, phi BH ddng mgt vai trd quan trgng trong quyet dinh cd tham gia BH cay liia hay khdng. Tuy nhien, chuang trinh thi diem BH cay liia theo Quyet dinh 315/QD-TTg thuc bien bd tra phi BH cho nong dan kbi tham gia. Do dd, viec dua bien nay vao md hinh gan nhu khdng cd y nghia.
Bang 1 trinh bay eac bien giai thich dugc sir dung trong nghien ciiu nay va hudng tac ddng cua chiing den quyet dinh tham gia chuong trinh BH cay Ilia cua hd trdng lua d Ha Tinh.
DEN QUYET DINH THAM GIA BH CAY LUA CUA HO Ten bien
Tham gia BH Tuoi Gidi tinh Quy mo ho Tap hnan Tai san Vay von DiSn tich Chi phi san xuat Nang suat
Dien giai
Bien phu thudc: Nhan gia tii 1 neu hg tham gia BH, nhan gia tn 0 neu hd khdng tham gia
Tudi ciia chit hg (nam)
Nhan gia tri 1 neu chii hg la nam, nhan gia tn 0 neu la nii Tong sd thanh viSn tiong hd (ngudi)
Nhan gia tri 1 neu hd cd tham gia tap huan, nhan gia tn 0 neu hg khdng tham gia
Tong tai san ciia bg (trieu ddng)
Nhan gia tri 1 neu hg cd vay von, nhan gia tri 0 neu khong vay Dien tich tidng lua (m'^)
Chi phi san xuat liia cua hg (ngan ddng/sao) Nang suat liia binh quan (kg/sao)
Ky vgng ve dSu
+/- +/-
-1-
+
+ 1 -1-
-1- -1-
Nguon: Nhdm tdc gid (2016).
Ghi chit: '+' the hien mdi quan he thuan chieu vdi bien phu thugc;'-' the hien mdi quan be ngugc chieu vdi biln phu thudc.
82 PHAT T R I S N B E N V O N G V U N G Q U Y E N 9, s o 3 (9/2019)
Hoang Trieu Huy - Ho Minh To^n Nhan to anh hirffng...
2.3. Nguon sd lieu
Ngudn sd lieu thii cap su dung trong nghien Cliu nay dugc thu thap tir eac bao cao tong ket cua cac sd, ban nganh, nien giam thong ke cua tinh Ha Tmh va tir eac huyen dugc dieu tia. Ngoai ra, cac nguon sd lieu thii cap tir sach, bao, hay cac tap ehi chuyen nganh cung dugc thu thap va tdng hgp de phuc vu cho mue dich nghien ciiu.
Ngudn sd lieu sa cap su dung trong nghien cim nay dugc thu thap thdng qua dieu tia phdng v^n 160 hd gia dinli trdng liia tren dia ban huyen Huong Khe, tinh Ha TTnh. Cac hg gia dinh dugc chgn theo phuang phap chgn mau ngau nhien va dugc phdng van true tiep bang bang cau hdi da chuan bi san. Cac thdng tin duge hdi bao gdm nhu:
tuoi, gidi tinh, sd thanh vien trong gia dinh, trinh do hgc van, nghe nghiep cua chu hd, thu nhap, tong tai san va cac thdng tin khac lien quan den dac diem cua hd. Thdng tin lien quan den boat dgng san xuat lua va chuang trinh thi diem BH cay liia bao gdm; bd ed tham gia chuong trinh thi diem hay khdng, cac ly do dan den viee tham gia bay khong tham gia, thdng tin ve dien tieh dat dai, ehi Bang 2: MOT SO T H 6 N G TIN
phi san xuat, san lugng thu hoach va mdt sd thdng tin cin thiet khac. Thdi gian dieu tra duge thuc hien trong nam 2016. Mdt sd thdng tin ca ban ve mlu dieu tra dugc trinh bay tiong Bang 2.
So lieu Bang 2 cho thay, do tudi binh quan cua chii hd la khoang 48 tudi, dao ddng tir 25 den 68 tudi, vdi trinh do hgc van chii yen la da hgc xong cap 2. Ve nghe nghiep, gan 94% sd chu hg cd nghe chinh la lam ndng, chi khoang 6% ket hgp san xuat ndng nghiep vdi cung cap cac dich vu khac nhu budn ban, sira chiia xe eg, may mdc. Sd nam kinh nghiem san xuat liia ciia chii hd la tuong ddi thap, binh quan la 13 nam. Ve thu nhap, binh quan mdi hd cd thu nhap khoang ban 7 tiieu ddng mdt thang (hay 85 tiieu ddng/nam).
Sd lieu dieu tia ciing cho thay, binh quan mdi hg cd khoang 5 thanh vien, cao nhat la 8 thanh vien, thap nhat la 2 thanh vien va khoang mdt nira trong sd dd dang trong do tudi lao ddng. Ve quy md dien tich trdng liia, binh quan mdi bg cd khoang 4.477 m^, thSp nhat la 200 m^ va cao nhat la 13.000 m^
CO BAN VE MAU DIEU TRA Dien giai
Tuoi cua chu hg (nam) Tiinh dg hgc van cua chu hg (lop) Nghe chinh ciia chii hg: =1 lam rugng,= 0 khac So thanh vien ciia hg (nguoi)
So lao dgng chinh (lac dgng) Tong gia tri tai san cua hg (trieu VND) Dien tich trcng lua 2015 (m^) Chi phi cho SX lHa 2015 (nghin VND) Nang suit lua bq nam 2015 (kg/sao) l o n g thu nhap 2015 cua ho (trieu VND) Hg CO tham gia BH: = 1 tham gia, = 0 khong
Trung binh 47,47 7,969 0,938 5,106 2,627 310,8 4,477 2,290 318,9 84,95 0,72
Nho nh4t 25
1 0 2 1 20 200 40 200 8,4 0
hffD nhat 68 12 1 8 6 1,224 13,000 12,780 400 317 1 Ngudn: Sd lieu diiu tra cua nhdm tdc gid (2016).
Mac dii khdng duge trinh bay cu the trong Bang 2, nhin chung, khdng cd sir khac biet Idn ve cac cbl tieu phan anh ket qua san xuat giiia nhdm
tham gia va nhdm khdng tham gia BH cay liia. Tuy nhien, ed su khac biet ve miic diu tu tren mgt dan vi dien tieh giua hai nhdm bd. Nhdm hg tham gia
P H A T TRltN BtN VCPNG VCJNG Q U Y E N 9, SO 3 (9/2019)
NGHIEN CCrU THl/C NGHIEM - KINH NGHIgM
BH ed xu hudng dau tu cdng lao ddng gia dinli nhieu ban tien mdi dcm vi dien tich nhung lai giam cac khoan chi phi san xuat khac. Ngirgc lai, viec chii tigng dau tu vao cac khoan muc ngoai lao ddng gia dinh eiia nhdm hd khdng tham gia BH (nhu thue mudn lao ddng, lam dat, cham sdc, bao ve thue vat, bay thu hoach) cd the la nguyen nhan dan den su khac biet ve nang suat ciing nhu Igi nhuan thu dugc tren mdi dan vi dien tieh cua nhdm hg nay so vdi nhdm hd tham gia BH. Tuy nhien, danh gia tac dgng ciia BH cay lua len hieu qua san xuit lua nam ngoai pham vi nghien ciru cua bai viet nay.
3. K€t qua nghien cihi va thao lu|n 3.1. Thirc trgng trien khai thi diem bdo hiem cay Ilia giai doan 2011-2013
Mac dii chuong trinh thi diem BH cay liia bat dau dugc trien khai tii nam 2011 nhung do viec ban hanh cac van ban cua cac ca quan chiic nang
ciing nhu ban che tiong viec van ddng tuyen truyen ngudi dan nen phai den nam 2012 chuang trinh mdi thuc su dugc trien khai bet cho 3 huyen d Ha Tinh. D6 thuc hien thi diem BH cay liia, Thdng tu 121/20U/BTC quy dinh bd tig 100% phi BH cho cac hd ngheo; 80% phi BH cho cac hd can ngheo;
60% phi BH cho cac hd khdng thudc dien ngbeo/can ngheo; va 20% phi BH cho cac td chiic san xuat ndng nghiep khi tham gia thi diem. KSt qua tiien khai va thuc hien chuong trinh BH cay lua tai Ha TTnh giai doan 2011-2013 dugc tiinh bay d Bang 3.
Sd lieu Bang 3 cho thay sd lugng hd tham gia BH cay lua tai 3 huyen thudc tinh Ha TTnh van con thap so vdi sd lugng hd tham gia trdng lua. Dong thdi, tdng sd phi BH thu dugc tir cac hg ciing il ban nhieu so vdi tdng gia tri phi BH phai nop, chiing td sd bd tham gia BH cay liia da sd thugc cae ddi tugng dugc ngan sach Nha nude ho tig.
Bang 3: KET QUA TRIEN KHAI CHUONG TRINH BAO HIEM CAY LUA TAI HA TINH GIAI DOAN 2011-2013
Dia ban du-ffc chon BHNN
1. Huong Khe Hg ngheo Can ngheo Hg khac 2. Cam XuySn 3. Diic Thg
Tong cong
So ho tham gia BHNN
21.529 13.041 7.385 1.103 25.917 14.955 62.401
So DT Ilia dirffc BHNN
(ha) 4.099,993 2.350,384 1.507,003 242,606 5.662,848 3.522,038 4.099,993
Tong gia tri duffc BH (ty dong) 85,172 49,729 31,003 4,440 159,942 112,665 357,779
T8ng thu phiBH (ty flong)
4,035 2,378 1,438 0,219 7,579 5,291 16,905
Tong chi boi thirtmg (ty ddng)
0,354 0,314 0,028 0,012 0 0 0,354
Ngudn: Cdng ty Bdo Minh Hd TTnh (2013, 2014).
Cd the ndi, sd lugng hg tham gia BH cay liia tai huyen Huong Khe qua 2 nam ehii yeu la cae hd dugc ngan sach Nha nude hd trg: Sd hd ngheo chiem ban 60%), hg can ngheo chiem 34%i eon hd thudng chi chiem 6%)
Bang 4 trinh bay sd lugng va ca cau cac loai hg tham gia thi diem BH d Huong Khe trong nam 2012 va 2013. So lieu Bang 4 cho thiy ty le tham
gia BH cay lua trong timg nam chu yeu tap trung d nhdm hg ngheo va can ngheo. Trong nam 2012, ddi tugng hd ngheo tham gia thi diem BH cay liia mdi chi 2.738 hd thi den nam 2013 da len din 3.869 hd, tang them 1.131 hg, tuong ling tang 41%.. Sd hg can ngheo cd sir bien dgng nhieu nhat, nam 2012 mdi chi cd 828 hd nhung den nam 2013 da len den 2.890 hd, tang 2.062 hd (tang gin
PHAT T R I E N B E N VCfNG VUNG Q U Y £ N 9, SO 3 (9/2019)
Hoang Trieu Huy - Ho Minh To^n Nlian to anh hirihlg...
250%), lam cho co cdu tham gia giira nh6m hg 2013 (55,9% ho nghegva 41,7% hg can ngheg).
ngheg va can ngheo dugc can bang hon o nam
Bang 4: SO LUONG VA CO CAU LOAI HO THAM GIA THI DIfiM BAG HIEM 6 HUONG KHE TRONG NAM 2012 VA 2013
Tham gia nam 2012 Tham gia nam 2013 So sanh 2013/2012 SL (hg) CC (%) SL (hg) CC (%)
Hg ngheo Hg can ngheg Hg khac
Tong
630 4.196
65,3 19,7 15
3.869 2.890 163
55,9 41,7 2,4
+1.131 +2.062 -467
+41
+249 -74
Nguon: Cdng ty Bdo Minh Hd Tinh (2013, 2014).
Trong khi ty le tham gia BH cay liia thudc nh6m hd ngheo va c§.n ngheo tang len qua cac nam, ty le tham gia cua nhdm hd kha, giau lai giam di. Luc dau tbi diem cd 630 bd tham gia, nhung sau do giam xudng chi cdn 163 hd nam 2013, giam 74%.
Mac dii vay, do tdng sd cac hg tham gia thi diem BH cay lua d Huong Khe tang qua timg 'vu va qua cac nam, dien tich lua dugc BH ciing tang len theo timg vu va qua cac nam. Bang 5 trinh bay sd lugng va ca cau dien tich liia dugc BH theo vu vatheo loaihd tham gia trong nam 2012 va2013.
Bang 5: DIEN TICH LUA DUOC BAO HlEM THEO LOAI H O QUA CAC VU 0 HirONG KHE TRONG NAM 2012 VA 2013
Dien tich lua duwc BH vu Pong Xuan (ba)
Dien tich liia du'gc BH vu He Thu (lia)
So sanh dien tich dugc BH 2013/2012 (%)' 2013
Hg ngheo Hd can ngheo Hgldiac
T6ng
484,481 n 4,272.^
40,705_
639,458 1.323,271 680,0_64_
613,124__
30,083
498,708 166,884
152,014 19,804 -86,97
1.319,66 Ngudn: Cdng ty Bdo Minh Hd Tinh (2013. 2014).
Ciing gidng nhu sd lugng hd tham gia bao hiem cay liia, dien tich liia dugc bao hiem eua nhdm hd ngheo va can ngheo tang len qua timg vu va qua cae nam, dac biet la dien tich lua dugc bao hiem cua nhdm can ngheo, so vdi nam 2012, vu Ddng Xuan tang han 436%) va vu He Thu tang hem 267%i. Tuy nhien, ddi vdi cac hd thudc nhdm kha va giau, cimg vdi viee giam sd lugng hd tham gia BH cay liia, dien tich tham gia BH theo cac vu eua
nhdm nay cung giam: Vu Ddng Xuan giam hem 26%); vu he thu giam gan 87%). Mgt mat, dieu nay cho thay neu cac hd khdng dugc hd trg phi bao hiem hoac dugc hd trg d miic thap, viec tu nguyen tham gia chuang trinh BH ciing rat thap. Mat khac, nhdm hd kha, giau thudng it tham gia vao cac boat ddng san xuat ndng nghiep nen ciing it tham gia mua BH cay lua so vdi nhirng hd ngheo hay can
PHAT T R I E N B £ N V O N G VUNG Q U Y E N 9, SO 3 (9/2019)
NGHIEN CIJU THl/C NGHIEM - KINH NGHIEM
ngheo, khi ngudn thu nhap chii yeu eua hg dua vao boat ddng san xuat ndng nghiep.
3.2. Kit qud ir&c luang md hinh tham gia bdo hiem cdy lua
De danh gia miie do tin cay cua md hinh, cac kiem dinh lien quan den khi&m khuyet cua md hinh da dugc nhdm tac gia thuc hien. Kiem dinh da cdng tuyen, thdng qua udc lugng cac gia tri tnmg binh cua nhan td phdng dai phuang sai (VIF), xac nhan khdng cd hien tugng da cdng tuyen. Kiem dinh Breuseh-Pagan bae bd su bien dien cua Bang 6: K £ T QUA U 6 C L U Q N G M 6
phuang sai sai sd thay ddi. Kiem dinh LR cho s\r phii hgp eua md binh bac bd gia thuyet HQ d miic 1%. Ket qua udc lugng cac tham sd va tac ddng bien duge trinh bay tiong Bang 6. Nhin chung, kha nang du bao ciia md hinh la kha tdt, hon 80%i s6 trudng hgp dugc du bao diing. Ddi vdi cac he s6 dugc udc lugng, ngoai tni tudi va gidi tinh cua ehii bd khdng ed y nghia (d mire lO%o), cac bien giai thich cdn lai trong md hinh deu anh hudng den quyet dinh tham gia BH cay liia cua hd.
HINH THAM GIA BAO HIEM CAY LUA Bien giai thich
Tuoi Gioi tinh Quy md hd Tap hudn Tdisdn Vay vdn Diin tich Chi phi sdn xudt Ndng suat Constant Log-likelihood Chi-square Sd guan sat
Phan tram du bao diing (%o)
He so u'dc lu-gng -0,062
0,000238 0,0305' 0,495"
0,509"
0,3527*
0,033*"
0,409"
-0,00714***
-7,25***
P>|zi
(0,129) (0,059) (0,019) (0,367) (0,253) (0,328) (0,294) (0,026) (0,003) (0,185) -61,03 99,65 160 80,1% (129/160)
Tac d&ng bien -0,0248
0,000 0,0119 0,18 0,198 0,1348 0,0401 0,196 -0,0028
—
Ngudn: So lieu dieu tra cua nhdm tdc gid (2016).
Ghi chu: ***,**,*: Co y nghia d muc 1%, 5%, 10%.
Ket qua udc lugng cho thay: Tdng sd thanh vien eua hd (Quy mo hd) anh hudng thuan chieu vdi quyet dinh tham gia BH cay lua cua hg (tai mue y nghia 10%)). Khi hd cd them 1 thanh vien, xac suat tham gia BH cay liia ciia hg se tang khoang 0,012 (hay 1,2 diem phan tram), neu cac yeu td khac tiong md hinh khdng ddi (tai gia tri trung binh eua mSu). Dieu nay cho thay: Mdt mat, khi de huy ddng ngudn luc lao ddng gia dinh vao san xuat lua (do sd thanh vien ddng), hd thudng ed xu hudng tham gia mua BH cay liia. Mat khac, khi sd thanh vien eua hd tang len, do rui ro ve mire tiiu
dung cd thi dgt duoc ciia hd cd chieu hudng tang len va viec tham gia chuang trinh BH se giiip hd it bi rui ro ban.
Tham gia cac Idp tap huan ve ky thuat san xuat (Tap hudn) ciing anh hudng tich cue den viec thara gia BH cay lua eiia hd. N8u chu hd da timg tham gia cac Idp tap huan, xac suat hg tham gia BH cay lua se tang len 0,18 (hay 18 diem phan tram) so vdi cac hd chua tung tham gia (neu eac yeu td khac trong md binh dugc giii nguyen tai gia tii trung binh cua mau). Mgt mat, rat cd the thdng qua cac Idp tap huan, hd nhan dien ro ban cac nii ro tiong
86 PHAT TRltN B^N V O N G VUNG Q U Y E N 9, SO 3 (9/2019)
Hoang Trieu Huy - Ho Minh Toan Nhan to anh huwng...
san xuat ndng nghiep va hau qua cua chiing. Mat khac, ciing thdng qua eac Idp tap hu4n, hg cd thg dugc chia se nhieu thdng tin ban ve tinh uu viet cua chuang trinh BH cay lua tiong viec phan tan rui ro va giitp bao ve nang luc san xuat cho hg. Tir dd, kha nang tham gia BH cay lita khi hd tham gia cac Idp tap huSn tang len.
Ben canh tac ddng ciia viec tham gia cac Idp tap huan hay sd thanh vien cua bd, khi quy md ve tai san (Tdi sdn), quy md ve vdn (Vay vdn) hay quy md ve dien tich d^t dai (Dien tich) tang len thi nhu cau tham gia BH cay liia cua hd ciing cd xu budng tang len. Ket qua udc lirgng cho tMy: Kbi tai san san xuat ciia hg tang them 1 trieu ddng, xac suat tham gia BH cay liia cua hg se tang khoang 0,2 (hay 19,8 diem phan tram); kbi hd dugc vay vdn, xac suat tham gia BH cay liia cua hd se tang hem 0,13 (bay 13 diem phan tiam); va khi dien tich trdng lua tang len I don vi, xac suat tham gia BH eay liia cua hd se tang han 0,04 (hay 4 diem phan tram). Nghien ciiu cua Mishra va Goodwin (2006) v6 anh hudng cua tai san den viec tham gia mua bao hiem doanh thu cho cay trdng ciia cac hg ndng dan d My cung cho ket qua tuong tu nhu trong nghien cim nay. Ket qua nghien ciru cua Ifft va Jodlowski (2017) ve vdn vay va tham gia bao hiem cay trdng ciing cho thay: Khi lugng vdn vay sir dung cang nhieu thi xu hudng mua bao hiem ciia hd cang tang. Ket qua ve anh hudng ciia dien tich dat len viec tham gia BH cua hd tiong nghien ciiu nay ciing hoan toan phu hgp vdi ket qua cua Goodwin (1993) hay Sherrick va cdng su (2004), kbi cho rang quy md dat dai cang Idn thi nhu cau tham gia bao hiem cay trdng cua hd cang cao. Nhin chung, cac ket luan nay la phii hgp vdi ly thuyet khi cho rang bao hiem ndng nghiep dugc coi la mdt phuang tien hieu qua de hd trg ngudi san xuat bu dap thiet hai tai chinli va chu ddng khac phuc hau qua do riti ro ndng nghiep gay ra, giup bao ve nang luc san xuat cho hd. Theo dd, khi quy md ve cac tu lieu san xuat cua hd cang Idn, de bao ve nang luc san xuat ciia minh trudc cac riii ro, nhu cau tham gia bao hiim cua hd se thudng cd xu hudng tang len.
Ngoai tac ddng ciia cac nhan td Hen quan den ngudn lire san xuat, quyet dinh tham gia BH cay lua ciia hg ciing bi anh hudng rSt Idn bdi chi phi dau tu cho hoat ddng san xuat liia (Chi phi sdn xuat). Sd lieu Bang 6 cho thay: Khi chi phi san xuat Ilia cua ho tang them 1 trieu dong, xac suat tham gia BH cay liia ciia hg se tang 0,196 (hay 19,6 diem phan tram). Ket qua nay hoan toan phii hgp vdi lap luan ciia Hazell (1992) kbi cho rang cae hd ndng dan thudng tham gia BH cay tidng de img phd vdi nil ro do chi phi dau tu tang len. Theo HazeU (1992), khi tham gia BH cay tidng, hd cd the phan bd dien tich dat trdng trgt nhieu hon cho cac loai eay cdng nghiep cd gia tri cao, cho du viec trdng cac loai cay nay thudng cd do nii ro cao ban ciing nhu chi phi dau tu cao bon so vdi cae cay tidng khac. Tuong tu, nhd tham gia BH cay trdng, hd ed the se dau tu ap dung cac cdng nghe tien tien vao trong boat dgng san xuat ndng nghiep, cho dii chi phi dau tu va do rui ro cua eac cdng nghe mdi nay thudng eao hon so vdi san xuat truyen thdng. K6t qua la, tham gia BH cay tidng se giup cac hg manh dan dau tu ban vao san xuat ndng nghiep.
Ket qua udc lugng ciing cho thay: Nang suat liia tmng binh cua hg (Nang suat) cd mdi quan he nguoc chieu vdi quyet dinh tham gia BH cay liia cua hd (tai mire y nghia 1%) - hoan toan phii hgp vdi ky vgng ban dau. Tac dgng bien cua bien Ndng suat la -0,0028 cho biet khi nang suat tang I kg/sao thi xac suat tham gia BH cay lua ciia hg se giam 0,0028 (hay 0,28 diem phan tiam). Do chuang trinh thi diem BH cay liia dang sir dung hinh tbiic BH theo chi sd nang suat vimg, nghia la, nang suat dugc BH se dugc tinh bang 90%o (nam 2012 chi bang 80%)) nang suat binh quan ciia 3 vu tuong ling trong 3 nam trudc dd tai xa. Rd rang, ngu nang suat Ilia ciia hd thudng thap ban miic tmng binh ciia xa, xac suat de hd nlian dugc bdi thudng la kha cao khi tham gia chuang trinh BH. Ngugc lai, ddi vdi nhirng hd cd nang suat lua thudng cao hon muc trung binh cua xa, cac hd nay cang it cd kha nang nhan duac den bu va do dd hg thudng it tham gia mua BH.
PHAT T R I E N B E N V O N G V U N G Q U Y E N 9, s o 3 (9/2019) 87
NGH1£N CLTU THU'C NGHlEM - KINH NGHIEM
K^t Iu3n
BH ndng nghiep ndi chung va BH cay I'ua ndi rieng thudng dugc cho la mgt ca che hiiu hieu de phan tan nii ro, giup bao ve nang luc san xuat cho cac hd san xuat ndng nghiep. Nhan thiic dugc tam quan trgng cua BH ndng nghiep, Quyet dinh 315/2011/QD-TTg v6 viec thuc bien thi diim BH ndng nghiep d Viet Nam giai doan 2011-2013 da dugc ban hanh de thuc hien thi diem BH cho cay Ilia tai 7 tinh trong ca nude, trong dd co Ha TTnh.
Tuy nhien, sau ban 2 nam trien khai thuc bien tai day, sd lugng bd ndng dan tham gia BH cdn thap, dien tich lua dugc BH ciing cdn ban che. Do dd, viec tim hieu, danh gia cac nhan td anh hudng den quy8t dinh tham gia BH cay lua eua hg de cd nhiing chinh sach thich hgp la rit cSn thiet.
De nhan dien va lam ro cac nhan td anh hudng den quyet dinh tham gia BH cay liia cua eac bd ndng dan d Ha Tinh, md binh probit dugc sti dung vdi ngudn sd lieu so cap dugc thu thap nam 2016 thdng qua dieu tra phdng vin 160 hd gia dinh trdng Ilia tien dia ban huyen Huang Khe ciia tinh Ha Tinh.
Ket qua nghien ciiu cho thay: cae hd de huy ddng ngudn luc lao ddng gia dinh do ddng ngudi, tii'ng tham gia cac chuong trinh tap huan ve ky thuat san xuat, cd tai san san xuat Idn, duge vay vdn tii cac td chiic tin dung, cd quy md dat dai Idn va chi phi dau tu cho san xuat Idn thudng cd xu hudng tham gia bao hiem cay liia. Trai lai, cae dac diem cua chu hd nhu do tudi hay gidi tinh thudng khdng cd y nghTa trong quyet dinh tham gia bao
hiem. Ket qua nghien ctni ciing cho thay, vdi hinh thirc BH cay liia nhu hien nay, dd la BH theo chi sd nang suat vung, nhiing hd cd nang suat lira cao thudng it tham gia mua BH do it ed kha nang nhan dugc den bii. Ngoai ra, viec tham gia BH eay liia cdn hi tac ddng rat Idn bdi chinh sach hd trg phi bao hiem. Vdi nhiing mii'c bd trg khac nhau cho cac ddi tugng khac nhau, mire dd tham gia BH cay Ilia d nhdm hd ngheo va can ngheo thudng cao hem rat nhieu so vdi miic do tham gia eua cae nhom cdn lai.
Tir ket qua nghien curu, hien tugng 'ftp timg tham gia vdo cdc chuang trinh tap hudn' cd anh hudng quan trgng tdi quyet dinh tham gia BH cay Ilia cua hd la van de ma cac nha hoach dinh chinh sach bao hiem ndng nghiep can quan tam. Theo do, thdng qua cac chuang tiinh, cac kbda tap hu§n cho ndng dan, cdng tac tuyen truyen, phd bien cho ngudi dan de nhan thiic rd hon ve eac nii ro trong san xuat ndng nghiep ciing nhu lgi ich ma BH cay lira mang lai mang tinh quyet dinh. Ddng thdi, viec tuyen truyin, phd bien cho ndng dan vl cac thii tuc khi tham gia BH ciing nhu quy trinh bdi thudng khi xay ra thiet hai la rkt eSn thiet. Khdng kem phan quan trgng, viec hoan thien cac quy dinh phap ly lien quan den bao hiem ndng nghiep noi chung va cay lua ndi rieng se tao ddng luc va khuyin khich cac doanh nghiep bao hiem ciing nhu cac bg ndng dan tham gia vao thi trudng BH ndng nghiep, giup khang dinh vai trd quan trgng ciia thi trudng BH ndng nghiep va ca hdi de phat trien ben viing thi tra'dng nay d Viet Nam.
Tai lieu tham khao
Bd Tai chinh (2011). Quyet dinh so 3035/QD-BTC ngdy 16/12/2011 ve ban hdnh quy tac, biiu phi vd mire trdch nhiem bdo hiem ndng nghiep.
Cdng ty Bao Minh Ha TTnh (2013). Tdng hop kit qud tiiin khai thi diim bdo hiim ndng nghiep tai cdc huyen Cam Xuyin, Dire Thg vd Huang Khi nam 2012.
Cdng ty Bao Minh Ha Tinh (2014). Tong hgp kit qud triin khai thi diem bdo hiim ndng nghiep tgi cdc huyen Cdm Xuyin, Dire Thg vd Huong Khi ndm 2013.
Goodvk'in, B.K. (1993). An Empirical Analysis of the Demand for Crop Insurance, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 75, 425-434.
88 PHAT T R I E N B E N V O N G VCJNG Q U Y ^ N 9, S6 3 (9/2019)
Hoang Trieu Huy - HS Minh Toan NhSn to anh hifong...
5. Hazell, P. B. R. (1992). The Appropriate Role of Agriculhiral Insurance in Developing Countries, Journal of International Development, Vol. 4, pp. 567-581.
6. Ifft, J., and Jodlowski, M. (2017). Federal crop insurance and agricultural credit use, 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259120, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
7. Makki, S.S., and Somwaru, A. (2001). Farmers' Participation in Crop Insurance Markets: Creating the Right Incentives, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 83, 662-667.
8. Mishra, A, K., and Goodwin, B. K. (2006). Revenue insurance purchase decisions of farmers, Applied Economics, 38(2), 149-159.
9. Pham Thi Dinh (2013). Tinh hinh thuc hien Bao hiem ndng nghiep d Viet Nam theo quyet dinh Sd 315/QD-TTg va mdt sd y kien d6 xuit. Tgp chi Kinh te & Phdt triin, 193, 54-57.
10. Rue, J.C. (2009). Area-Yield Crop Insurance Reconsidered (Again): An Empirical Analysis of Demand for Area Yield Insurance for Rice Farmers in Peru, Unpublished Master thesis. University of
California, Davis.
11. Sherrick, B.J., Bany, P J., Ellinger, P.N., and Sehnitkey, G.D. (2004). Factors Influencing Farmers' Crop Insurance Decisions. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 86, 103-114.
12. Thu tirdng Chinh phu (2011). Quyet dinh 315/QD-TTg ngdy 01/3/2011 vi viic thuc Men thi diem bdo hiim ndng nghiep giai doan 2011- 2013.
13. Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, Cambridge, Massachusetts and London. The MIT Press, England:
Thong tin tac gia:
Ngaynhanbai: 02/7/2019 1. Hoang Trieu Huy, TS .., , , . , , . nyo/omn
^ • -^ , Ngay nhan ban sua: 12/8/2019 - Don vi cdng tac: Trudng Dai hoc Kmh te, Dai -KT • J -.. .*- i^/o/-,Aif^
^^ / ^ to - - Ngay duyet dang: 22/8/2019 hgc Hue
- Dia chi email: hoangtrieuhuy@hce.edu.'vn 2. H6 Minh Toan, Th.S
- Don vi cdng tac: Trudng Dai bgc Kinh te, Dai hoc Hue
PHAT T R I E N BEN VLfNG VUNG Q U Y E N 9, SO 3 (9/2019)
