KINH IE VI MO
Tac dpng cua chi so nang luc cgnh tranh cdp tinh vd chi so tap trung doanh nghiep cdp huyen t6i viec tham gia thj trudng cua lao dong tre Viet Nam'
PHAM MINH THAI
t^hai thdc bp so lieu diiu tra chuyen tiep tQ trQdng hoc tdi viec ldm nam 2012 vd 2015^
cua Tong cue Thd'ng ke, bdi vii't dd lan ddu tien kiem sodt cdc ye'u to'chinh sdch, cu thi Id cdc chi so thdnh phdn trong chi so ndng iQc canh tranh cap tinh, chi so do thi hoa vd chi so' tap trung doanh nghiip cdp huyen vdo phdn tich tdc ddng tdi ki't qud tham gia thi triidng em lao ddng tre Viet Nam. Ket qud Udc iQdng cho thdy cdc y^u td'ldm tdng khd ndng tham gia thi triidng lao dpng cua lao dgng tre d Viit Nam bao gom chi so gia nhap thi trQdng, chi so chi phi phi chinh thQc, chi so'ndng ddng cdp tinh vd chi so tap trung doanh nghiip cdp huyen. NgUdc lai, nhihig ye'u td' ldm gidm xdc suat tham gia thi trUdng lao ddng cua lao ddng tre Id chi so minh bach cap tinh vd chi so do thi hoa.
Tfl k h d a : tham gia thi trUdng lao ddng, lao dpng tre, chi so tap trung ngdnh, ndng liic canh tranh cdp tinh, dd thi hda, probit, moi trQdng kinh te'dia phQdng.
Mc eanh t r a n h cao t h i se cd mdi trfldng kinh doanh td't cho n h i l u doanh nghiep thanh lap va phat t r i l n , do dd, se cd n h i l u cd hdi viec lam eho lao dpng, dac biet la lao dpng tre t h a m gia. Nghia la cd t h e ky vpng viec ty 16 t h a m gia thi trfldng lao ddng cao hdn cl nhflng t i n h cd c H so' n a n g lflc canh tranh cao.
Ty le dd t h i hda dfldc t i n h bang ty le dan so cua k h u vflc t h a n h t h i trong mdt tinh cMa cho tdng dan so' cua t i n h dd. Theo Kyalo (2005) thi tac dpng cua yeu to' dd thi hda la tac ddng h a i cMeu doi vdi vile t h a m gia thi trudng lao dpng cua lao dong t r e . Mdt mat, do thi hda k h i l n cho sU canh t r a n h trong tim viec se t a n g len, bdi cd n h i e u ngUdi hdn tham gia vao qua t r i n h n a y t a i cac k h u vilc dd thi.
Dieu dd cd t h e diin tdi nMeu lao dpng tre lan d l u di tim vi§c se gap khd k h a n va sau m6t vai tha't bai cd t h e d i n tdi viec hp thoai cM va t a m diing viec t h a m gia vao thi trUdng lao ddng, dan tdi giam t y le t h a m gia. Mat khdc, 1. Gifli t h i l u c h u n g
Cac nghien cflu da thflc Men h e n quan tdi viec phan tich cac n h a n to' tac ddng tdi viec t h a m gia thi trfldng lao dpng thfldng t a p trung vao cac dac diem ca n h a n va hp gia dinh, hay tfl pMa cung lao ddng ma cbua ngbien cflu cac y l u to' vi md cua thi trfldng lao dpng nhu mflc dp phat trien-, mflc dp cd sSn vi§c lam b dia phfldng la cae yeu td thudc phia clu. Mot khia canh khac la cac nghien cflu hien hay chua kiem soat dfldc yeu to' tac dpng cua cac cM sd' t h a n h p h i n trong hd thd'ng cM sd' nang lflc canh t r a n h ca'p tinb, chi so' dd thi hda cung nhu yeu to' ve mflc dp tap trung doanh nghiep trong moi nganh b cSp huyen tdi k i t qua t h a m gia tbi trudng lao ddng ddi vdi lao dpng t r e b Viet Nam.
CM sd' nang luc eanh t r a n h ca'p tinh (PCI) dai dien cho moi tnidng kinh t l cua mot tinh.
CM so' PCI cang cao nghia la tinh dd cd mdi trfldng kinh doanh td't, ed dich vu ho trd doanh ngMep phat trien, cd cMnh sach dao tao lao dpng td't, cbi pM gia n h a p thi trfldng th^p, dac biet cd l a n h dao tinh nang ddng va tien phong. Theo dd, tinh nao cd cM so' nang
Pham Minh Thai, Trung tam Rian ti'ch va du bao, Vien Han lam Khoa hpc xa h6i Vifet Nam.
* Nghi&n ciiu nay duoc tai tro bdi Dai hoc Qa6c gia Ha Noi trong dl tai ma s6 QG.I8.26.
22 NghiSn ciiu Kmh t4s6l1(486) - Thing 11/2018
Tdc dong cua clii so nang liic ...
p h i n Idn cac doanh nghiSp san xua't ciing nhfl doanh nghiep cung ca'p dich v u deu t a p t r u n g b cac k h u do thi, n e n n h u c l u t u y e n dung k h a cao va dieu dd tao r a n h i l u cd hoi viec lam cho ngfldi lao dpng. Hdn t h e nfla, chi pM sinh boat t a i cac k h u do thi cao hdn b k h u vflc ndng thdn, d i n tdi chi phi cd hoi cua viec khdng t h a m gia vao thi trfldng lao dpng cua lao dpng t r e cung t a n g len. Theo h a i kMa canh nay tM do t h i hda lai lam t a n g ty Id t h a m gia thi t n i d n g lao dpng cua lao dpng tre. Do dd, yeu to' dd t h i hda dfldc dfla vao kiem soat vdi gia t h i l t la lam t a n g t y le t h a m gia t h i trfldng lao dpng cua lao dpng tre b Viet N a m .
Lien quan tdi cM so" t a p t r u n g nganh, v l ly t h u y l t , cac doanh nghiep ludn cd xu hudng t a p t r u n g b nhflng k h u vflc giup hp cd nang sua't lao dpng cao hdn va do dd cd ldi n h u a n cao hdn (Vernon, 1966). Theo Lj^ t h u y l t dia kinh t l mdi (New Economic Geography) cua Paul K r u g m a n ^ nhflng ldi ich ma doanh nghiep cd t h e n h ^ n dUdc b a n g vile cflng tap t r u n g tai mot k h u vflc vdi nhflng doanh n g h i i p khac dfldc gpi la h i i u flng ngoai tac cue bp Gocal externality effect) theo quy md hoac cung co the dUdc goi la mflc do t a p t r u n g kinh t e (agglomeration economies). Cd h a i Mnh thflc tap t r u n g la dia phfldng hda va do thi hda. Theo M n h thfle dia phudng hda, thdng qua vi^c chia cum vdi nhflng doanh nghiep khac trong cflng mot nganh, cac doanh nghiep se t a n d u n g diidc sfl lan tda cdng nghe cung nhfl chia se nhflng d l u vao quan trpng cua qua t r i n h san xua't, dac biet la lao dpng c6 ky n a n g (Krugman, 1991;
Rosenthal va Strange, 2004). Theo Mnh thflc do tbi hda, sfl t a p t r u n g se lam t a n g quy md cua cac dd thi va lam da dang hda cac nganh cdng nghiep b dd thi dd. Theo Chinitz (1961) va Jacobs (1969), dd t h i hda nghia la cac doanh ngMep t a p t r u n g trong cung mot khu vflc se n h a n dfldc nhflng ldi ich Idn tfl tieh bp cong nghe, chuyen giao kien thflc va tiep can tdi cac dich vu hd trd k i n h doanh.
Nhfl vay, sfl t a p t r u n g cac doanh nghiep cflng nganh b cflng mdt k h u vflc se dem lai
nhflng ldi ich Idn cho h a n t h a n cac doanh ngMep cung nhfl t h u h u t t h e m cac doanh ngMep khac tdi k h u vflc dd. KM so lfldng doanh ngMep t a n g len tM cung ddng nghia vdi viec cau ve lao dpng cung se t a n g len, tao r a n M l u cd hoi viec lam cho lao ddng b khu vflc dd va k h u vflc lan can. N M l u n g h i i n cflu thflc nghiem g i n day cung c H r a rang, sfl t a p t r u n g cac doanh ngMdp tao r a n h i l u viec lam hdn cho ngfldi lao dpng dia phfldng (Combes va cdng sfl, 2012 va Barufi, 2014), nghia la se cd n M l u lfla ebon trong viec t h a m gia thi trudng lao ddng cho lao dpng tre mdi gia n h a p thi trfldng lao dpng khi cd m a t cac k h u cong ngMep t a p t r u n g , cac k h u che xua't b trong dia b a n hoac g i n dia b a n sinh song ciia nhflng lao dong tre nay. CMnh vi vay, b i l n so' dp tap trung cua doanh nghiep la mot b i l n so r a i quan trpng khdng t h i tMeu trong viec xac dinh yeu to' tac dong tdi k i t qua tham gia thi trudng lao dpng cua lao ddng tre b Viet Nam.
2. T o n g q u a n n g h i e n cflu
Khi p h a n tich cac n h a n to tac ddng tdi viec t h a m gia t h i trUdng lao dpng ndi chung va viec t h a m gia thi trfldng lao ddng cua lao ddng tre ndi rieng, h l u h i t cac nghien eflu trudc day Mem soat theo cac nhdm n h a n to' bao gdm nhdm n h a n to' thuoc dae diem rieng cua ngUdi lao dpng va nhdm n h a n to' lien quan tdi dac diem cua hp gia (finh. Cac y l u to' h e n quan tdi dac diem ca n h a n bao gdm: tudi, gidi tinh, t r i n h dp hpc va'n, tinh trang hdn n h a n , t i n h t r a n g khuyl't t a t va y l u to' cd con.
Nhdm y l u to' h e n quan tdi dac diem cua hp gia dinh bao gdm quy mo cua hp va t i n h t r a n g kinh t e cua hd gia (Hnh.
Lien quan tdi yeu td' tuoi va gidi tinh, p h i n Idn cac ket qua ngMen cflu thflc ngMem deu cd ehung mdt ket Man rang, ty le t h a m gia tbi trfldng lao ddng cua n a m gidi cao hdn nfl gidi va tudi cua ngfldi lao dpng cd mra quan he t h u a n vdi ty 1$ t h a m gia thi trfldng lao dpng (Mohamed, 2005; Guarcello va cdng sfl, 2006;
Dang Nguyen Anh va cdng sfl, 2005).
1. Giao su Paul Krugman duoc giai thudng Nobel nam 2008 tflr ly thuylt dja kinh t^ m6i nily.
Nghiin aiu Kmh t4s611(486) • Thing 11/2018
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Tdc ddng cua ciii so nang iuc ...
Ngfldi lao ddng cd t r i n h do giao due cao hdn cd n h i l u kha nang n h a n dfldc t h u n h a p cao hdn^ cung nhfl cd hoi viec lam td't hdn (Kyalo, 2005; Burtless, 2013; Hosney, 2015), do dd hp se s i n sang t h a m gia vao thi trfldng lao dpng (Pastore, 2005; Faridi va Basit, 2011; Khadim va Akram, 2013). Hdn t h i nfla, trinh dp giao due cang cao tM chi pM cd hdi cua viec khdng t h a m thi trUdng lao dpng cung se cao hdn, dilu dd tao ap luc cho nhflng ngfldi cd trinh dp cao t h a m gia vao thi trfldng lao dpng (Kyalo, 2005). Tuy nhien, Contreras va cong sU (2010) lai p h a t hidn r i n g ddi vdi nam t h a n h nien ct Chile, mdi quan he gifla trinh dp hpc va'n va ty 16 t h a m gia thi trfldng lao ddng la ngfldc chilu nhau. Day cung la phat Men cua Dang Nguyen Anh va cdng sU (2005) d Viet Nam.
Trong khi mot sd nghien cflu chi r a rang phu nfl da k i t hon cd xu hudng it t h a m gia vao thi trfldng lao ddng (Ejaz, 2007) tM mot sd nghien cflu khac lai khdng tim tha'y md'i quan be gifla tinb trang hdn n h a n va viec t h a m gia thi trudng lao dpng cua phu nfl (Khadim va Akram, 2013). N l u nhu tinh trang hon nhan lam tang t y le t h a m gia thi trfldng lao dpng b Trung Qudc va Sierra Leone tM y l u to' nay lai lam giam ty le t h a m gia b Ai Cap va Colombia (Mohamed, 2005).
Kyalo (2005) cung chi r a y l u to' tinh trang hdn n h a n lam giam xac s u i t t h a m gia thi trudng lao dpng cua lao dpng tre ci Kenya.
Tai Vidt Nam, Dang Nguyen Anh va cong sfl (2005) cM ra rang tinh trang hdn nhan khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke trong viec t h a m gia thi trfldng lao dpng, t u y nhien nhflng t h a n h nien doc t h a n cd xu hfldng tim viec lam cao hdn nhflng t h a n h nien da k i t hdn.
Mac dfl cd nhieu nghien cflu v l moi quan he gifla tinh trang sflc khde va viec t h a m gia thi trfldng lao dpng ci cac nflde phat trien, rat it nghien cflu v l va'n de nay b cac nUdc dang phat trien (Dogrul, 2015). Mot ngUdi khoe manh se cd k h a nang cd t r i n h dp hpc va'n td't hdn, cd thu nhap tdt hdn va do dd hp cd n M l u k h a nang tham gia vao tbi tnidng lao dpng
cao hdn (Holt, 2010). Ngfldc lai, mdt lao dpng vdi sflc khde kdm se khd cd thd dat dfldc nang sua't lao dpng nhfl ngUdi binh thfldng, do do se it cd hoi de hp dfldc t u y e n dung. N h u vSy, cd n h i l u k h a n a n g sflc khde kem hoac hi k b u y l t t a t se la mdt r a o can lam giam kha nang t h a m gia vao t h i trUdng lao dpng cua ngudi lao dpng ndi e h u n g va cua lao dpng tre noi rieng (Mohamed, 2005; Cai, 2010). Lamb va McKenzie (2001) cung cM r a rang, nhflng hpc sinh k h u y e t t a t gap nhieu khd khan hdn trong qua t r i n h chuyen doi tfl trfldng hoc tdi viec lam va hp thfldng p h a i chiu tinh trang tha't nghiep dai b a n lau hdn nhflng hpc sinh khong khuyet t a t sau k h i k i t thflc qua trinh hoc t a p . Tuy n h i l n , t a i Viet Nam, nghien cflu cua Dang Nguyen Anh va cdng sfl (2005) da cM r a rang nhflng t h a n h nien khuye't tat co xu hudng t h a m gia t h i t r u d n g lao dpng va chu dpng tim viec lam cao hdn nhflng thanh nien khong k h u y e t t a t . Day la mot phat hien k h a khac biet so vdi ly t h u y e t neu tren.
Nghien ciiu cua Mohamed (2005) k i t Man rang quy md hp gia (finh cang t a n g tM xu hfldng t h a m gia tbi trfldng lao dpng cua cac t h a n h vien trong hp gia (finh do cang tang.
Ngfldc lai, Kyalo (2005) lai chi r a y l u td lam giam k h a n a n g t h a m gia t h i tnidng lao dpng cua t h a n h m e n la quy md hp gia dinh. NhU vay, tac dpng cua quy md hp gia (finh la khdng rd rang tdi k e t qua t h a m gia thj trudng lao ddng va lUa chpn n g h i ngMSp tren thi trudng lao dpng.
Trong khi nghien cflu cua Kyalo (2005), Guarcello va cdng sfl (2006) tim tha'y moi quan he t h u a n chieu gifla t h u n h a p cua ho gia dinh vdi ty le t h a m gia lUc lUdng lao dpng cua t h a n h nien, t h i D a n g Nguyen Anh va cdng sU (2005) lai c H r a r a n g t i n h trang kinh t l c u a hp gia d i n h cd mo'i q u a n h e ngfldc 2. Varian, 1992 khSng djnh di^u nay dUa tr6n ly thuyd't v6 d&a hifiu (signaling theory) vi phia ciu. ngutri thufe lao dfing thucmg c6 xu hu6ng tra thu nhap cao hon cho ngu6i lao d6ng c6 trinh d6 cao bcri trinh d6 cao di li^n v6i vific co nang su3it lao d6ng cao hon so vdi nhflng ngu6i CO trinh d6 tha'p hoti.
24 Nghiin cAi Kinh tgs6l1(486) - Thing 11/2018
Tac dong cua clii so nang life ,
chieu vdi k i t qua viec lam t r e n thi trUdng lao dpng cua t h a n h nien. K i t qua cua D a n g Nguyen Anh va cdng sU (2005) k h a tfldng dong vdi k i t qua cua Contreras va cong sU (2010) nghien cflu b Chi Le. Theo dd, khi t h u n h a p cua hd gia (finh t a n g len thi ty Id t h a m gia lUe Mdng lao dpng cua lao dpng tre giam xud'ng. N h u vay, tae dpng cua t i n b t r a n g kinh t l cua hp gia dinh tdi viec t h a m gia t h i trudng lao dong cua lao dpng t r e la khdng ddng nha't, tfly thudc vao dac didm cua tflng nflde, tiing k h u vflc nghien cflu.
Lien quan tdi nghien cflu v l dp tap t r u n g cua doanh nghiep, t a i Viet N a m da cd mdt so' nghien cflu dUa y l u to' nay vao p h a n tich.
Tuy nhien, cac nghien cflu chu, y l u t a p t r u n g vao p h a n tich tac ddng cua sfl t a p t r u n g cua doanh nghiep tdi nang sua't lao ddng hoac viec lam va hpc t a p cua t r e em. Trong khi N g u y i n T h a n g va cdng sfl (2015) tap t r u n g p h a n tich tac dpng cua ye'u to' nay tdi nang sua't lao ddng cua cac doanh nghiep ndi chung, tM T r a n Thi Bich va La Hai Anh (2017) lai di sau vao p h a n tieh tac dpng cua y l u to' nay tdi rieng n a n g s u a t lao dpng cua ' cac ho kinh doanh ca t h e phi ndng nghidp phi cM'nh thfle b Viet N a m . Giang T h a n h Long va cdng sfl (2016) p h a n tich tac dpng cua y l u to" do t a p t r u n g cua doanh nghiep tdi lao ddng ' va giao due cua tre em trong k h u vUc t a p t r u n g do. Nghien cflu n a y chi r a r i n g mac dfl dp tap t r u n g cua doanh nghiep khong co tac ddng tdi viec di hpc cua tre em, nhUng nd da j giup n a n g cao cha't lUdng cua trUdng hpc,
• ddng thdi giam xae sua't t h a m gia vao thi trudng lao ddng cua t r e em, dac biet la vdi tre em gai b k h u vuc ndng thdn, dan tdc thieu sd i va bd'me cd t r i n h do giao due tha'p.
t Nghien ciiu cua T r i n Q u a n g Tuye'n va (. cdng sU (2018) la nghien cflu d l u tien kiem
soat cac y l u to' lien quan tdi chi so nang lUc J canh t r a n h ca'p tinh, chi so^ dd thi hda va chi I so' tap t r u n g n g a n h ca'p huy§n trong viec II d a n h gia n h a n to' tac ddng tdi viec lUa chpn
* viec lam cua lao dpng t r e . Nghien cflu da chi
^ r a r i n g cha't Ifldng dao tao cua cac cd sd dao
tao ca'p t i n h va mflc do t a p t r u n g doanh nghiep ca'p huyen giup cho lao ddng t r e cd dfldc nhflng viec lam td't hdn t r e n thi trfldng lao ddng. Tuy vay, nghien cflu nay chi ap dung cho nhflng lao dpng da t h a m gia vao t b i trfldng ma chfla p h a n tich tac ddng cua cac n h a n to' tdi viec t h a m gia thi trfldng cua lao ddng t r e b Viet N a m .
Tom lai, trong nghien cflu cac y l u to' tac dpng tdi viec t h a m gia thi trudng lao dpng, viee kiem soat cac y l u to' lien quan tdi dac diem cua b a n t h a n ngfldi lao ddng, dac diem gia dinh va vflng k i n h te' da dfldc r a t n h i l u nghien cflu ap dung. Tuy nhien, mdi tfldng quan gifla do tap t r u n g cua doanh nghiep cung nhfl t i n h t r a n g do thi hda va mot sd' cM so quan ly ca'p t i n h nhfl sfl minh bach, sfl hd trd gia n h a p thi trfldng tdi viec t h a m gia thi trfldng lao dpng cua lao dpng tre v l n chfla dfldc nghien cflu cu the. D i l u do cd nghia la cac nghien cflu ve n h a n to tac dong tdi viec t h a m gia thi trfldng lao dpng b t r e n mdi chi tap t r u n g vao m a t cung ma thieu cac yeu to' v l m a t c l u . Trong khi dd cac y l u tfl phia c l u ddng vai trd h e t sflc quan trpng den ket qua cua viec t h a m gia thi trfldng lao dong cua lao ddng t r e . Viec kiem soat mdt so' y l u to' tfl pMa c l u la ddng gdp quan trpng cua bai viet vao he thdhg ly thuye't ve cac y l u to tac dpng tdi viec t h a m gia thi trfldng lao ddng cua lao dpng t r e b Viet Nam.
3. So' l i e u v a phvtdng p h a p n g h i e n cflu 3.1. So lieu
So' lieu chinh dUde sfl dung trong nghien cflu nay la so' lieu Dieu tra quo'c gia chuydn tie'p tfl trfldng hpc den viec lam (School-to- Work Transition Survey-SWTS). Day la mdt p h i n cua du an Viec lam cho t h a n h nien (Work4Youth) thuoc k h u d n khd hdp tac gifla ChUdng trinh Viec lam t h a n h nien cua ILO va Quy MasterCard. Viet Nam la mdt trong so 28 qudc gia thUc Men dieu t r a nay. Dfl an nay dfldc thflc hien trong 5 n a m va k i t thuc vao gifla n a m 2016, vdi muc dich t a n g cfldng cdng tac t h u t h a p thdng tin thi trfldng lao ddng d a n h rieng cho t h a n h n i l n va giup cac
, Nghiin ciiu Kinh tis611(486) • Thing 11/2018 25
Tic dong cua clii sd' nang ii/c
n h a hoach dinh cMnh sach sfl dung, p h a n tich so'lieu thdng ke. Tai Viet Nam, dieu t r a SWTS dUdc thUe hien h a i l i n , l i n 1 dieu t r a vao nam 2012/2013 va l i n 2 dUdc d i l u t r a vao thang 4-2015.
D i l u t r a SWTS n a m 2012 gdm mSu 3.000 ho gia dfinh tai 20 t i n h ^ Cac ho gia dinh dUdc lfla chpn sfl dung phUdng thflc chpn m i u n g l u nhien dfla t r e n dan m i u cua Dilu t r a mflc sdng dan cfl 2012 (VHLSS 2012), ed nghia la mdi ho gia (finh cd mot cd hdi dflde lfla chpn d i l u t r a . Tai cac hp dfldc lfla chpn, thdng tin se dfldc t h u t h a p dd'i vdi tflng t h a n h vien gia (finh cua hp cd dp tudi tfl 15 d i n 29. Tdng scT quan sat cua cudi cung cua cuoc dilu t r a la 2.722.
D i l u t r a SWTS n a m 2015 gdm m i u 2.852 ho gia dinh tai 20 tinh^. Mac dfl cd mot so' tinh d i l u t r a nam 2015 khae so vdi d i l u tra nam 2012, nhung nhin chung cae t i n h t h a y ddi deu b cung mot vflng kinh t e va cd trinh dp phat trien k h a tfldng ddng vdi cac t i n h da dilu t r a nam 2012 d l dam bao t i n h dai dien cho toan quo'c. Cac ho gia (finh dUdc lUa chpn sfl dung phUdng thflc chpn m i u n g l u nhien dfla t r e n dan m a u cua D i l u t r a mfle song dan cfl 2014, cd nghia la mdi hp gia dinh cd mot cd hdi dfldc lfla chpn d i l u t r a . Tai cac bp dfldc Ifla chpn, thdng tin se dfldc t h u thap ddi vdi tiing t h a n h vien gia (finh cua hp cd dp tudi tfl 15 den 29. Tdng so' quan sat cua cudi cflng cua cuoc d i l u t r a la 2.345.
Do muc tieu muon tim hieu cac yeu td tae dpng tdi viec tham gia thi tnidng lao ddng cua lao dpng tre, nen bai viet chi tap trung vao nhflng thanh men da k i t thflc viec hpc tap. Do dd, nhflng thanh men v l n dang di hpc hoac tham gia cac chfldng trinh dao tao tai thdi (film dilu tra se khdng dUdc dUa vao phan tich trong ngMen cflu nay. Sd quan sat Men dang (fi hpc hoac t h a m gia cac chucftig trinh dao tao trong m i u SWTS n a m 2012 va nam 2015 I l n lUdt la 919 va 793 quan sat. Sau khi tach nhdm dang di hpc r a tM so' quan sat cudi cung dUdc sfl dung trong ngMen ciiu la 1.803 quan sat trong SWTS nSm 2012 va 1.552 quan sat trong SWTS nSm 2015.
Ngoai r a bai v i l t c u n g sfl dung so' lieu \i n a n g lUc c a n h t r a n h ca'p t i n h n a m 2014 cua VCCI va so lieu ve chi sd' dd t h i boa cua Tdng cue Thd'ng ke va Quy d a n s6 Lien hdp qud'c cdng bo' n a m 2016 (Tong cue Thd'ng ke va UNFPA, 2016).
3.2. PhQdng phdp nghien cQu Bai v i l t sii d u n g m o M n h ddn vi xac suS't (Probit) de tim r a nhflng y l i i td' tac dflng tdi viec t h a m gia t h i t r u d n g lao dflng cua lao dflng t r e S Vi§t N a m . Phfldng t r i n h cu thi nhfl sau:
Trong dd: Yi = 0 n e u lao dpng tre khong t h a m gia vao t h i trUdng lao dpng; Yi = 1 neu lao ddng t r e cd t h a m gia vao thi trflcing lao dflng (cd viec lam); Xi: la v i e td nhflng dac diem ca n h a n (tufl'i, gidi tinh, tinh trang k h u y l t tat, t r i n h dp giao due, di cfl, co vd/chdng), dac diem hp gia dinh (tinh trang kinh t l , quy md hp, t r i n h dfl hpc va'n cua bd), dac diem v u n g k i n h t l (thanh thi/nong thon, vflng k i n h te) va cac b i l n thuoc cac chi sfl' t h a n h p h a n t r o n g chi so nang liic canh t r a n h ca'p t i n h , chi so' dfl thi hoa, chi so' mflc dp t a p t r u n g n g a n h ca'p huy§n.
De de doc va giai t h i c h ki't qua fldc Ifldng cua md M n h Probit, gia t r i tac dpng cSin bien cua bien Xi thfldng dfldc sfl dung. Cong thflc de t i n h tac dpng can b i l n cua x, la
dPjy, =l\x,) _dEiy',\x-) '
3x dx. - = <p{x\, fi)p trong dd ^x'. ^/3\a mot h a m p h a n phoi chuin.
3. 20 tinh dupc di^u tra nSm 2012 g6m: Ha N6i, Lao Cai, H6a Binh, Lang Son, Quang Ninh, Riu Tho. Uai Bmh, Ninh Binh, Ngha An, Hu^, Binh Dinh, Finh ThuSn, Dak U k , Lam D6ng, D^ng Nai, TP. H6 Chf Minh, B&i Tre, D6ng Thap, O n Thc», Ck Mau.
4. 20 tinh dupc di^u tra nam 2015 g6m: Ha N6i, Uo Cai, Son La, Bac Giang, Phii Thp, Hai Phong, Hi Nam, Ninh Binh, Thanh Hoa, Hu6', Quang Nam, Binh Dinh, Gia Lai, Lflm D6ng, Binh Duong.TP. H6 On' Minh, Ti&i Giang. D6ng Thap, C&i Tho. Bac Lifiu.
26 Nghiin CAJ Kinh iSsS 11(486) - Thing 1M
Tdc dong cua clii so nang luc ,
4. K e t q u a n g h i e n cifu v a t h a o l u a n Theo so lieu (fieu t r a lao dpng viSc lam h a n g n a m cua Tdng cue Thong ke t M so' lao dpng trong dp tudi tfl 15 d i n 29 da cd xu hudng giam d i n tfl 22,4 tri§u ngudi n a m 2009 xud'ng cdn 19,4 trieu ngudi n a m 2016.
Theo dd, so' lao dpng t r e cd viec lam cung cd xu hudng giam tfl g i n 15 t r i l u ngudi xud'ng cdn khoang 12,7 trieu ngudi trong eung giai doan. Xu hfldng giam n a y da dfldc n h i l u nghien ctiu d l cap, bdi Viet N a m da b i t d l u giai doan gia hda d a n so (Hoang P h i Hflng va cflng sfl, 2014) va so' ngfldi t r e gia n h a p t h i trfldng lao dpng cung cd xu hfldng giam tfl n a m 2013 (Oudin va cdng sfl, 2013). Trong sd hdn 6,7 trieu t h a n h nien khdng t h a m gia thi trfldng lao ddng n a m 2016, cd tdi g i n 6 tridu ngfldi dang theo hpc dai b a n trong cac chfldng t r i n h dao tao b Viet Nam.
Bang 1 cho t h i y cd sfl khac biet rd ret trong BANG 1; T y l e t h a m g i a t h i trflctag
ty le t h a m gia t h i trfldng lao dflng gifla cac nhdm n a m va nfl, nhdm t h a n h thi va ndng thdn cua lao dpng t r e Viet N a m . Ty le t h a m gia thi trudng lao ddng cua n a m cao hdn k h a n h i l u so vdi ty le t h a m gia cua nfl vdi cac ty le tfldng flng cua n a m 2016 la 68,1% va 63,1%. Tuy nhien, khoang each chenh lech khoang 5 diem p h i n t r a m gifla hai gidi dfldc duy tri k h a dn dinh trong sud't giai doan tfl 2007 den 2016. D i l u dd cho thS^y, sfl khac biet gifla h a i nhdm gidi t i n h cd t h i dfldc ly giai la do khac biet ve dac diem gidi, dac biet trong nhdm tudi 22-29 la giai doan phu hdp nha't vdi nfl gidi trong viec sinh con va cham sdc con cai. Trong so' nhflng ngfldi da ke't thuc viec hpc t a p va dao tao, tM nfl gidi cd the lap gia (finh va lfla chpn 5 n h a lam cdng vile noi trd, trong khi dd n a m gidi cd xu hfldng tim viec lam cao hdn ngay sau khi k i t thuc viec hpc tap.
l a o d o n g c u a l a o d o n g t r e V i l t N a m
Lao ddng tre (tridu lao ddng) S6 lao d6ng tre co vific Ty le tham gia thi trufmg lao c (Thiuig
Na
Nam N6ng thdn llianh Ihi
2007 21,37 13.51 ong (%)
63,21 61,81 64,58 67,23 52,39
2009 22,40 14,96
66,77 64,10 69,40 71,09 56,74
2010 22,88 15,35
67,09 64,13 70,03 71,96 55,89
2011 22,02 14,58
66,24 62.71 69,65 70,85 56,30
2012 20,92 13,44
64,24 60,66 67,61 67,79 56,78
2013 20,12 13,30
66,10 62,51 69,52 70,32 57,08
2014 19,42 12,94
66,62 62,95 70,10 70,60 58.10
2015 19.66 13.11
66.67 64.11 69,15 71,39 57,65
2016 19,38 12,72
65,66 63,14 68,09 70,05 57,51 NguSn: Tmh toin cua tac gi^ tCr s6 lifiu Didu tra lao d6ng vific l^m 2007-2016, TiSng cue ThCing ke.
Gifla khu vflc nflng thfln va k h u vflc t h a n h thi, ty le t h a m gia t h i trfldng lao dpng cua lao ddng tre ciing khac b i l t ra't rd. Nam 2016 cd tdi 70% lao ddng tre b k h u vflc nflng thfln t h a m gia vao thi trfldng lao ddng, trong kM ty le nay b khu vflc t h a n h t h i cM la 57,5%. Sfl chenh lech trong ty le t h a m gia thi trfldng lao ddng gifla hai k h u vflc la tfldng dfli dn dinh trong giai doan 2010 - 2016 (bang 1). Dieu nay dfldc giai tMch bdi h a i y l u to: thQ nhdt, dan so tre 5 t h a n h thi thfldng cd thdi gian hpc t a p dai bdn so vdi nhdm lao dpng t r e b nflng thon; thQ hai, ap lflc kinh t l ' ct k h u vflc nong thdn cao hdn khu vUc t h a n h thi, dieu nay d i n
d i n cac lao dpng k h u vflc ndng thdn bat buoc phai tim kiem viec lam.
CM so" dfl t a p t r u n g cua doanh ngM§p b cSip huyen dfldc s^ dung vi n l u ci ca'p t i n h tM se lam giam sfl da dang trong cae bien cua doanh ngMlp, bdi Viet Nam cM cd 63 tinh/thanh p h a Trong khi do, neu sfl dung dp t a p t r u n g cua doanh ngMep cl ca'p xa tM se khdng dam bao dUdc dd t a p trung, bdi cd it doanh nghiSp t r e n dia b a n xa, t h a m cM n M l u xa khong cd doanh ngMep nao. Hdn nfla, ngfldi lao ddng cd the sang xa khac d l lam viec cho mot doanh nghiep nao dd chfl khdng phai trong xa cua minh. Dac biet la se cd Men
Nghiin cOu Kinh tgs611 (486) - Thing 11/2018 27
Tic flonfl ciia tli' s* nang luc
Wdng hi§u tog lan toa giQa cac xa co doanh nghiep hoat dgng. Mflc 46 tap t r u n g cua nganh A dp do 3 chiS so theo dia ban huyen theo cong thiic
L., LQ
trong d& l i j la so lao dpng nganh i S huyen j , Li la so lao dong nganh i tren toan quoc, Lj la s6'lao donghuy$nj, L l a so lao dong toan quoc.
Khi dUa chi so PCI vao kiem soat trong mo hinh, yeu to nay dai dien cho moi trUOng kinh t6' cua mot tinh. Chi s6' PCI cang cao nghia la tinh do CO moi trUcing kinh doanh tot, co dich vu ho trd doanh nghiep phat trien, CO chinh sach dao tao lao dong tot, chi phi gia n h i p thi trUcing thap, dac biet co lanh dao tinh nang dpng va tien phong. Theo do, tinh nao co chi so nang lUc canh tranh cao thi se CO moi trUcJng kinh doanh tot cho nhieu doanh nghiep thanh 14p va phat trien, do do, se co nhilu cd hoi viec lam cho lao dong, dac biSt la lao dpng tre tham gia. Nghia la co the ky vpng viec ty 1$ tham gia thi trudng lao dpng cao hdn va lua chpn nghe nghiep da dang hdn d nhiing tinh CO chi so nang liic canh t r a n h cao. Vi co tdi 10 yeu to t h a n h phdn nen co nhieu k h a nang chi so PCI tong hdp khong co tac dpng cu
the tdi k&'t qua liia chpn t h a m gia thi trUcIng lao dpng cua lao dpng t r e cl Viet Nam. Chinh vi v4y, bai viet se Idem soat chi tiet mot so chi so cu t h e trong chi so tdng hdp PCI dudc coi la CO lien quan t n i c tiep tdi viec tham gia thi trudng lao dpng cua lao dpng tre.
De danh gia mflc do tac dpng, gia tri tac dpng bien (marginal effects) se dudc si dung.
Hdu het cac bien kiem soat trong mo hinh deu la bi§n gia (dummies), n e n gia tri tac dong bien co nghia la tac dpng cua viec c6 dac diem nao d6 so vdi nhom t h a m chieu cua chinh bien so dd trong d i l u ld$n cac bien sd khac khong ddi. Cac yeu t d tac dpng dUdc kiem soat bao gom cac nhom: (1) dac diem ca nhan; (2) dac diem hp gia dinh; (3) dac d i l m thanh thi/nong thon, viing kinh te; (4) dac diem tiinh dp phat trien. Cac ket qua vdi cac n h a n t d ve ca nhan va hp gia ifinh, t h a n h t h i v a viing kinh te cho k i t qua tUdng tii cac nghien ciiu khac. Do do, p h i n nay cua bai viet chi t^p trung vao nhom n h a n t d cuoi cung bao gdm chi sd tap trung nganh, chi sd do thi hoa va cac chi sd thanh phdn cua nang liic canh t r a n h cdp tinh nam 2014, vi day la nhiing n h a n t d mdi bii dSp vao khoang trdng nghien ciiu ve n h t o g nhan to tac dpng tdi viec t h a m gia thi trudng lao dong va l u a chpn nghe cua lao dpng tre d Vi6t Nam (bang 2). K i t qua mo h i n h lidc liidng ddy di dudc trinh bay trong p h d n P h u luc.
B A N G 2: Y e u t d t a c d o n g t d i v i e c t h a m g i a
N h t a to Ddc diem trinh do phdt trien Ch! s6' tap trung O i i s o d d t l l i h o a Ducmg giao tli6ng tot Chi so gia nhap till tnicmg Chi sCi minh bach ChisSCPPCT Chi so' nang ddng Chi s6' hd tro doanh nglugp ChisO'DTLD SO' quan sat
i h i t n / d n g l a o d o n g c u a l a o d o n g t r e ( t a c d o n g bien) 2012
Tong the
-0.0385***
-0.1845*
-0.3270***
0.3905 -0,6476»«»
-0,5874»»
0,2657«»»
1.527
Nam
-0,0308»
-0,0638 0,0070 0,3322 -0,6325««
-0,30i3 0,1135
799 Nor
-0,0507*»
-0,3816«»
-0,7006»»»
0,6098 -0,6667*
-1,029»»
0,4349«»
728
2015 Tdng the
0,0214 -0,1012 0,2079 1,5680 -0.2733 -0,1327 -0,1499 0,2405 0,2387 1.049
Nam
0,0561*»
-0,4925 -0,091 0,8878 0,7758 -1,217 -0,2251 -1,1816 0,9055 472
NO
0,0024 -0,3841 0,1476 1,3527 -0,4321 0,0930 -0,3102 0,2827 0,4598 577 Miic ^ nghia thCfng ice *** 1%, ** 5%, * 10%
NguSn: Tinh toan ciia tac g i i tcr s« lieu SWTS 2012 v i 2015, Tdng cue Thtfng ke.
28 Nghien dhl Kinh tes611(486) • Thing f!/«"'
Tic dong cua chi so nang lac ...
Nhdm yeu to' r a t q u a n trong dai dien cho t r i n h dp p h a t trien cua cac t i n h tdi k i t qua t h a m gia t h i trUdng lao ddng cua lao dpng t r e bao gom: cac y l u to p h ^ n eflng v l cd s5 h a t^ng cung nhfl cac ye'u to' p h i n m i m ve mot so" y l u to t h a n h p h d n trong chi so n a n g luc canh t r a n h ca'p tinh. K i t q u a Udc lUdng nam 2012 cho thay, ta't ca cac yeu to thudc nhdm nay d l u eo y nghia tho'ng ke, nghia la cac k i t qua deu du m a n h trong viec cung ca'p cd sd vflng chac cho cac k i t Man r u t r a tfl md Mnh p h a n tich, dac biet la gifla nhflng nfl t h a n h nien k i t qua t h a m gia thi trudng lao dpng cua hp bi tac ddng bdi nhflng b i l n vi md nay, trong kM gifla cae n a m t h a n h nien cM cd hai yeu to' cd y nghia thd'ng ke do la chi so' t a p t r u n g doanh nghiep va cM so'minh bach.
ThQ nhdt, ket qua Ude Ifldng cho tha'y, khi cM so gia n h a p t h i trfldng va cM so' nang dpng cua tinh cang tang, tM xu hudng cua t h a n h nien b cac t i n h dd t h a m gia vao t h i trUcing lao ddng cang t a n g len. Cu t h e la khi cM so' nang dpng t a n g len 1 phdn t r a m se lam cho xu hudng t h a m gia thi trfldng lao dpng cua lao dpng t r e ndi chung t a n g len 26,6 diem p h a n t r a m va ddi vdi nfl t h a n h nien t a n g len 43,5 diem p h d n t r a m trong n a m 2012. Day cung la d i l u da diitic chi r a trong cac md Mnh ly thuyet, bdi le chi so' gia n h a p thi trfldng cao dong nghia vdi vide cd hoi gia n h a p thi trfldng cua cac doanh nghiep trong tinh dd ra't tot, dieu do d i n tdi cau lao ddng t a n g I l n va se tao r a n h i l u viec lam cho lao dpng t r e n dia ban. L^ giai nay cung hoan toan phu hdp vdi k i t qua fldc Ifldng cua cM so' n a n g dpng ca'p tinh.
ThQ hai, cac yeu tcT lam giam k h a nang t h a m gia thi trfldng lao ddng cua lao dpng tre bao gom: chi so* t a p t r u n g doanh nghiep, cM scT do thi hoa, chi so dudng giao thdng tot va chi so' minh bach b ca'p tinh. Ke't qua fldc Ifldng cua ca bon yeu t6 nay d l u ra't dang dfldc q u a n tam, bdi le nd di ngUdc lai vdi nhflng p h a n tich ly thuyet. Trong p h a n tich ly t h u y l t , cac y l u to' n a y d l u dfldc k^ vpng se ho trd lam t a n g xac sua't cua viec t h a m gia
t h i trfldng lao ddng cua lao ddng t r e . Cu the, theo ly thuyet dia M n h t l mdi cua Paul Krugman, nhflng ldi ieh ma doanh nghiep cd t h i n h a n dfldc b ^ n g viec cung t a p t r u n g tai mot k h u vflc vdi nhflng doanh ngMep khac dfldc gpi la hieu flng ngoai tac cue bo theo quy md, hoac cung co t h e dfldc goi la mflc dp tap t r u n g kinh t l thong qua viec chia cum vdi nhflng doanh nghiep khac trong cflng mot nganh, cac doanh nghiep se t a n dung dfldc sfl lan tda cdng nghe cflng nhfl chia se nhflng ddu vao quan trpng cua qua t r i n h san xua't, dac biet la lao ddng cd ky nang. N h u vay, v l ly thuyet tM su t a p t r u n g cac doanh nghiep cung nganh d cung mot k h u vUc se dem lai nhflng Idi ich Idn cho b a n t h a n cac doanh ngMep cung nhU t h u hflt t h e m cac doanh nghiep khac tdi khu vUc dd. Khi so lUdng doanh nghiep t a n g len thi cdu v l lao dong cung se t a n g len, tao r a nMeu cd hdi viec lam cho lao dpng trong k h u vUc va vung lan can.
N h i l u nghien cflu thflc nghiem gdn day cung cM r a rkng, sfl t a p t r u n g cac doanh nghiep tao r a n h i l u viec lam hdn cho ngfldi lao dpng dia phfldng (Combes va cdng sfl, 2012 va Barufi, 2014). Nghia la se cd n h i l u lfla chon trong viec t h a m gia thi trfldng lao dpng cung nhfl lfla chpn vile Mm cho lao ddng t r e mdi gia n h a p thi trfldng lao ddng khi cd mat cac k h u cong nghiep, khu c h i xua't b trong dia b a n hoac gan dia b a n sinh sd'ng cua nhflng lao ddng t r e nay. TUdng tfl, chi so' dd thi hda cang cao dong nghia vdi viec cd nhieu doanh nghiep t a p t r u n g b k h u vflc dd thi va tao r a n h i l u cd hoi viec lam b khu vflc do. Tuy nMen, k i t qua fldc Ifldng am cua hai he so' h e n quan tdi cM so' t a p t r u n g nganh va chi so"
dd thi hda cd t h e dfldc ly giai la: do sfl t a p t r u n g cao dp cua cac doanh nghiep trong cung mot k h u vUc dan tdi vi§c t h u h u t n h i l u lao dpng b cac ndi khac cflng t a p t r u n g v l day, lam t a n g mflc dp canh t r a n h gifla nhflng lao ddng muon t h a m gia vao thi trfldng lao dpng b nhihig k h u vUc nay. Mflc do canh t r a n h cao khien cho nhflng lao dpng t r e mdi b a t ddu gia n h a p thi trudng lao dpng vdi von kinh n g h i i m thUc te tha'p se khd cd the canh
Nghiin ciiu Kinh lgs611(486) • Thing 11/2018 2 9
Tie fldng cua chi so nang iuc
t r a n h dUdc vdi nhflng lao ddng ed kinh nghiem bdn (Pastore, 2005). K i t qua la xae sua't de nhflng lao dong tre nay dfldc thflc sfl t h a m gia thi trudng lao ddng bi giam xuohg.
K i t qua fldc lUdng n a m 2015 cho cM so' tap trung nganh la dfldng va cd ^ nghia thdhg ke ddi vdi tong the cua nhdm lao dpng tre cung nhu ddi vdi nhdm nam lao dpng tre b Viet Nam. K i t qua nay phan a n h dung nhflng lap Man ve ly t h u y l t da dfldc trinh bay va k^
vpng b phdn tren.
5. K i t l u a n v a h a m y c h i n h s a c h Ty le t h a m gia lflc Ifldng lao dpng cua thanh nien Viet Nam vdn dfldc duy tri va ty le tha't ngMep khong bien ddng nhieu eho tha'y, suy giam t a n g trfldng khdng a n h hfldng nhieu d i n viec lam cua t h a n h nien Viet Nam v l mat so Mdng.
Mac du ra't khd de lUdng hda tac ddng cua nhflng yeu to' cMnh sach tdi k i t qua t h a m gia thi trfldng lao dpng cua lao dong t r e b Viet Nam, nhflng nghien cflu cflng da sfl dung cac b i l n dai dien cho cac y l u to" chinh sach nay b cap tinh (cdp thflc bi$n cMnh sach, nhfl: cbi so nang ddng, cM so' ho trd dao tao lao dpng, chi so' minh bach hay cM so' dd thi hda) de kiem soat tac dpng tiem t a n g cua nhflng b i l n
chinh sach n a y tdi ket q u a p h a n tich. Kit qua udc ludng tfl md M n h kinh t l Ifldng cho tha'y, cae yeu t o ' l a m t a n g k h a nang tham gia thi trudng lao dpng cu^ lao dpng tre cl Vi$t Nam gom: chi so gia n h a p thi trfldng, cM so chi pM phi cMnh thflc va cM so' nang dpng ca'p tinh. Ngfldc lai, nhflng yeu to' lam giam xac sua't t h a m gia t h i trfldng lao dong cua lao dpng t r e la: cM so' m i n h bach ca'p tinh, chi so tap t r u n g va chi so' do t h i hda. CM'nh vi vky, viec tiep tuc cai t h i e n mdi trUdng kinh doanh ca'p t i n h se giflp n a n g cao k h a nang tham gia thi trfldng lao dpng cua lao dong tre b Vi^t N a m .
Dac biet, trong ngMen cflu nay, y l u to chi 86* tap t r u n g doanh ngMep Idn ddu t i i n dfldc dua vao mo M n h p h a n tich n h a n to tac dong tdi vide t h a m gia t h i t r u d n g lao dpng b Viet Nam. K i t qua fldc Ifldng cho tha'y, cM sltSp t r u n g doanh nghidp c^p h u y i n lam tang kha nang t h a m gia t h i trfldng lao dpng cua lao dpng t r e b Vilt N a m . Do do, viec tao cd hoi viec lam tai dia phfldng thong qua tiep tuc p h a t trien cac k h u san xua't t a p trung se tao r a nhflng cd hdi viec lam cho lao dpng tre m&
gia n h a p thi trudng ngay t a i dia ban hp sinh sd'ng./.
PHU LUC: K e t q u a flcfc Iflrfng d a y d u c u a m o h i n h P r o b i t
Nhin td 2012
Tdng thi Nam Net
2015
Tdng the Nam NS
Bdc diem cd nhdn 15-19 20-24 25-29 Nam gidi Khuyet lAt Cd vo/chdng Dieu Khdng bang e£p TN ti^u hoc Tdt nghiep THCS Tdt nghiep THPT Tdt nghiep THCN Tdt nghiep CD/DH++
Nhdm tham chidu 0,00064
0,0647*
0,07389*«»
-0,0717*
-0,0276 0,0022 0,0315 -0,0009
0,00529 0,02911 -0,0934**
0.0086 0,0529 0,0155 -0,0292
0,0128 0,0969*
-0,0377 -0,0657 -0,0173 0,0428 0,0025
0,0606*
0,1454***
-0,0465*
-0,0856**
-0,0098 -0,0064 -0,0419 -0,0374
0,1038**
0,1187**
-0,1404**
0,0243 0,0273 0,0139 -0,0697
0,0264 0,1387**
0,0089 -0,0424 -0,036 -0,0918 -0,0173 Nhdm tham chidu
0,044 0,0563 0,0275
0,0587 -0,0149 -0,0157
0,0378 0,0964 0,0611
-0,045 -0,0155 -0,0083
-0,0885*
0,0974 -0,036
-0,0052 -0,0705 0,0149
30 Nghien aiu Kinh tesd 11(436) - Thing 11/201S
Tic dSng cua chi so nang luc
N h i n t d 2012
Tdng the N a m Nil
2015
Tdng t h e Nam NO-
Ddc diem gia dinh Ngheo c a n nghfeo Trung binh Giiu Cdcon Quy mo ho Bd khdng b§ng ctfp Bd tdt nghiep tidu hoc Bd tdt nghiep THCS Bd tdt nghiep THPT Bd tdt nghiep THCN Bd tdt nghiep CD/DH ++
-0.1946***
-0,0274
-0,1873***
-0,0534
-0,1926***
• «
-0,0814*
-0,0776**
-0,1608**
-0,0679*
-0,0424 -0,0762 Nhdm tham chidu
-0,0892*
0,0317 0,0079 -0,0227 -0,0216
-0,0422 0,071 0,0178*
-0,0088 0,0185
-0,1304*
0,0308 0,0015 -0,0385 -0,0594
-0,028 -0,0494 -0,0003 0,1435***
0,0799**
0,1092 0,0259 0,0130 0,1587***
0,0990*
-0,0643 -0,05762
-0,0128 0,1388**
0,0741 Nhdm tham chidu
-0,0111 -0,0889 -0,0791*
-0,0126 -0,0655 -0,0917*
-0,0136 -0,1225 -0,0866
0,0439 0,0672 0,0910
0,0954*
0,0947 0,1719104*
0,0146 0,0390 0,0406 Ddc diem vting kinh te'
Thanh thi Mien nui phia Bac Ddng b i n g S.Hdng - HN Duyen hai midn Tnmg Tay Nguyen DOng Nam B6-TP.HCM Ddng bang S,Cirii Long HaNOi
TP. Hd Chi Minh Ddc diem trinh do phdt tri Chi sd t i p tning C h i s d d 6 I h i h d a Dirdng giao thdng tdt Chi sd gia nhap thi trucmg Chi sd minh bach C h l s d C P P C r Chi sd nang ddng Chi sd hd trg doanh nghiep C h i s d D T L D Sd quan s i t
-0,0137 -0,0776*
-0,0481
0,0215 -0.0167 -0,0828
-0,0526 -0,1444*
-0,002
-0,0603**
0,2135**
0,0289
-0,0707*
0 -0,1854
-0,0611 0,1232 -0,0426 Nhdm tham chidu
0,1268**
0,1206*
0,1086**
0,0285 0,0960 n
-0,0385***
-0,1845*
-0,3270***
0,3905 -0,6476***
-0,5874**
0,2657***
1.527
0,2209***
0,1659*
0,1765***
0,0317 0,0957
-0,0308*
-0,0638 0,0070 0,3322 -0,6325**
-0,3013 0,1136
799
0,0419 0,0889 0,0777 0,0028 0,1334
-0,0507**
-0,3816**
-0,7006***
0,6098 -0,6667*
-1,029**
0,4349**
728
0,1282 -0,0195 -0,0927 0,2301 0.2156*
0,0214 -0,1012 0,2079 1,5680.
-0,2733 -0,1327 -0,1499 0,2405 0,2387 1.049
-0,0378 0,2981 0,2599 -0,048 0,2502
0,0561**
-0,4925 -0,091 0,8878 0,7758 -1,217 -0,2251 -1,1816 0,9055 472
0,1335 0,0553 -0,096 0,1415 0,2668
0,0024 -0,3841 0,1476 1,3527 -0,4321 0,0930 -0,3102 0,2827 0,4598 577 MUc y nghTa thfing kft *** 1%, ** 5%, * 10%
NguSn: Ti'nh todn cua tac gia lis s6 lifiu SWTS 2012 va 2015, Tdng cue Th^ng k&.
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Ngay nhan bat: 12-4-2018 Ngay nhan ban s i a : 10-9-2018 Ngay duyet dang: 8-10-2018
Nghiin aiu Kinh t4s611 (486) • Th^ 1 J/ffltt
