V6 Thanh Thu & cpng sir. Tap chi Phat triSn Kinh K. 27(9), 04-33
Cac yeu to tac dong den quyet dinh dau tu- tryc tiep ra nuo'c ngoai cua Viet Nam:
Trucmg hop Campuchia
v o THANH THU
Tmong Dai hoc Kinh te TP.HCM - vothanhthu@ueh.edu.vn LE QUANG HUY
Trup-ng Dai hpc Tai chinh - Marketing - lequanghuykt(@yahoo.com LE THI BICH DIE?
Truong Dai hoc Cong nghe Tp.HCM - ltb.diep(ghutech.edu.vn Ngdy nhdn:
01/10/2015 Ngdy nhdn lgi:
20/12/2015 Ngdy duyet ddng:
29/09/2016 Md so:
2015-F21-S7
Tie khoa:
Dau tu' true tiep; Thiic day dau tu; Thu hiit dau tu; Quyet djnh dau tu;
Viet Nam, Campuchia.
Keywords:
FDI; Investment promotion; Investment attraction; Decision to invest; Cambodia; Viet Nam.
Tom tat
Nghien cuu tap trung phan tich cac ylu to tac dgng den hoat dong Ska tu true tiep cua cac doanh nghiep (DN) VN vao Campuchia - mot trong hai thi truo'ng dau tu' ra nuoc ngoai Ion nhat cua VN. Hai nhom yeu to dugc xem xet la: (1) Nhom cac yeu to thiic day dau tir, va (2) Nhom cac yeu to thu hiit dau tu. Nghien ciiu su' dung phoi hgp phuong phap djnh tinh va dinh lugng, trong do, mo hinh hfii quy da bien dugc diing de xac djnh cac yeu to tac dgng chi'nh den quyet djnh dau tu cOa DN VN sang Campuchia. Ket qua nghien cii'u da tim ra quyet dinh dau tu'truc tiep vao Campuchia chju su tac dgng boi 4 yeu to: (1) Van hoa - dia li, (2) Co so ha tang, (3) Kinh te vT mo va thj tru'ong, va (4) quy dinh, chinh sach lien quan den dau tu. Tu kh qua nghien ciin, tac gia dua ra cac ggi y chinh sach thu hiit von dau tu true tiep nuoc ngoai (FDI) cila Campuchia va chinh sach thiic diy diu tu' tru'c tilp sang thi tru'dng Campuchia noi rieng va ra nuoc ngoai noi chung ciia VN.
Abstract
This article analyzes the key factors affecting foreign direct investment (FDI) of Vietnamese enterprises in Cambodia, one ofthe two biggest FDI markets ofthe country, using multivariate regression technique in addition to qualitative approaches. Tivo groups of factors under investigation include: (i) those promoting FDI activities; and (ii) factors attracting FDI capital. From the results obtained, the paper draws a few policy implications for attracting FDI to Cambodia and encouraging this kind of investment in other foreign country in general and in Cambodia in particular.
Vo Thanh Thu & cgng su. Tap chi Phat triSn Kinh te, 27(9), 04-33
1. Giffi thieu
Cu6i the ki thu 20, dau th6 ki thu 21, mot trong nhung dac diem ciia qua trinh hoi nhap kinh te quoc te la cac nuac tang cuong hoat dong dau tu true tiep ra nuac ngoai, qua trinh nay dien ra khong chi a cac nuac cong nghiep phat trien ma con a cac nuac dang phat triSn (OECD, 2008). Nhieu nghien ciru khoa hoc li giai ve vai tro dau tu true tiep ra nuac ngoai: (1) Nham tim kiem hieu qua tiJ ti suat Igfi nhuan hap dan a cac thi truong (Agarwal, 1980; Moosa, 2002); hoac (2) Thuc hien su da dang hoa (Markowitz, 1959; Moosa, 2002; Rose-Ackerman & Tobin, 2005); hoac (3) Dugc tac dong bai san lugng dau ra va quy mo thi truang nuac tiep nhan von (Moore, 1993; Wang & Swain, 1995). Bang viec danh gia dgng ca dau tu ra nuac ngoai ciia cac DN Nhat, Kreinin &
cgngsu (1999) ket luan bao ve thi phan la dgng caquan trgng nhat cho FDI. Nghien ciru cua OECD (2008) cho rang FDI tao nen hieu ung lan toa ve cong nghe, ho trg dau tu nguon nhan luc. dong gop hgi nhap thuang mai quoc te, giup tao moi truang kinh doanh canh tranh, va gia tang sy phat trien ciia DN tai nuac thu hut von dau tu. Tat ca dieu nay gop phan thuc day tang truang kinh te cao hon va dugc xem nhu mgt cong cu hiru hieu giup tang truang kinh te a cac quoc gia dang phat trien. Nghien cuu ciia Grossman va Helpman (1991), nghien cuu ciia Hermes va Lensink (2003) deu chi ra FDI dong vai tro quan trgng trong viec hien dai hoa va thiic day su phat trien cua nen kinh te a nuac tiep nhan dau tu. Johnson (2005) nghien cuu ve tac dgng cua FDI den tang truang kinh te da ket luan FDI tac dgng den nuac tiep nhan, dac biet la nhom cac nuac dang phat trien chii yeu qua hinh thuc von vat chat va cong nghe, trong do, cong nghe la yeu to chii yeu. Li thuyet nang suat bien ciia Kemp (1962) giai thich sy di chuyen von la do khac biet ve nang suat bien, von di chuyen tii noi c6 nang suat bien thap sang noi co nang suat bien cao hon. Li thuyet nay dua tren gia dinh thi trucmg hoan hao, khong c6 rui ro nen Igi nhuan la bien so duy nhat ciia quyet dinh dau tu, do do, mgt quoc gia co von doi dao thi muc Igi nhuan bien ve von thap han quoc gia khan hiem von. Tuy nhien, li thuyet nang suat bien ciia Kemp (2012) chua giai thich dugc li do tai sao ben canh dong von di chuyen vao thi con ton tai dong von di chuyen ra Ichoi mgt quoc gia, va cac li thuyet Cling chua li giai dugc tai sao nhung nuac thieu von, cong nghe chua cao nhu VN Iai co the dau tu true tiep ra nuac ngoai? Cac yeu to nao ciia nuorc xuat khau von va nuac nhap khau von tac dgng den hoat dgng dau tu true tiep tu mgt nuac dang phat trien sang mgt nuac dang phat trien khac? Cac yeu to nao tac dgng den y dinh dau tu ra nuac ngoai cua
Vo Thanh Thu & cong sir. Tap chi Phat trien Kinh tk, 27(9), 04-33
DN 6' cac nuac dang phat triSn, von chua manh, cong nghe chua cao, chua xay dung dugc thuang hieu co gia tri...
Nhan thuc dugc Igi ich ciia diu tu true tiep ra nuac ngoai (OFDI), tir nam 1989, khi VN chua CO van ban phap luat dieu chinh hoat dgng dku tu ra nuac ngoai, da co dy an dau tien vai tdng v6n dku tu gin 564.000 USD diu tu vao Lao. Tinh den thang 10/2015, nuac ta da co 1.032 dy an dku tu vao 65 nuac va khu vyc lanh th6 ciia ca nam chau luc.
Trong so cac qu3c gia VN dau tu ra nuac ngoai thi Campuchia la qu6c gia xep thu 2 ve t6ng so du an va von diu tu. Liiy ki dSn thang 10/2015, cac DN VN da dang ki diu tu 184 dy an vai khoang han 3,6 ti USD von diu tu vao Campuchia, chiem ti trgng 17,8%
t6ng s6 dy an va gin 16,8% tong von dang ki diu tu ra nuac ngoai ciia VN. Tuy nhien, theo khao sat ciia Hiep hgi cac nha diu tu vao Campuchia va nhan dinh cua nhom chuyen gia tu vin hoat dgng diu tu tryc tilp ciia cac DN VN tai thi truang Campuchia thi ket qua diu tu chua tuang xiing vai tiem nang dau tu ra nuac ngoai ciia DN VN. Vi vay, viec nghien cii'u de tim ra cac nhan to tac dgng that sy va miic do tac dgng den hoat dong dau tu ciia VN tai Campuchia la can thiet va c6 y nghTa. Tinh den nay, tren the giai da CO rat nhieu cong trinh nghien ciin ve cac yeu to tae dgng den OFDI (Lu & cong sy, 2011; Goh & Wong, 2011; Masron & Shahbudin, 2010; Gammeltoft, 2008; Cheng &
Stough, 2007; Deng, 2004; Andreff, 2003...); tuy nhien, cac nghien cii'u thuang tap trung vao cac yeu to thiic day dau tu tir trong nuac (Push Factors) hoac cac yeu to thu hut dau tu ciia thi truang nuac ngoai (Pull Factors), ma rat it nghien eun xem xet day du ve sy phoi hgp ciia ca 2 nhom yeu to tren (Aykut & Ratha, 2004). Vi vay, vai mong muon xem xet sy tac dgng ciia ca 2 nhom ySu t6 thiic diy va thu hiit diu tu den quySt djnh dau tu ra nuac ngoai, tac gia da tien hanh nghien ciin: Cdc yiu id tdc dgng din quyet dinh ddu tu true tiip ra nuac ngoai cua VN: Trudng hgp Campuchia.
2. Cff Sff li thuyet
Theo OECD (2008), FDI la mgt loai dau tu xuyen bien giai vai muc tieu thanh lap Igi ich lau dai cho mgt DN cu trii trong n6n kinh ti khac vai nSn kinh ti ciia nha diu tu.
De giai thich hoat dgng va sy phat triln ciia FDI, rit nhieu li thuylt da ra dai, ching han nhu: Li thuyet thi truong hieu qua, II thuylt thi trucmg khong hieu qua, li thuylt quoc tl hoa, li thuyet lya chgn dia dilm... Vai li thuylt thi truang hieu qua, cac DN lya chon dau tu true tiep nuac ngoai dl tim kilm cae miic ti suit thu hoi khac nhau a cac thi truang (Agarwal, 1980; Moosa, 2002), hoac dl thyc hien sy da dang hoa (Markowitz,
Vo Thanh Thu & cong sir. Tap chi Phat triSn Kinh te. 27(9), 04-33
1959; Moosa, 2002; Rose-Ackerman & Tobin, 2005), hoac dugc tac dgng bai san lugng dau ra va quy mo thi truang nuac tiep nhan von (Moore, 1993; Wang & Swanin, 1995).
Vai Ii thuyet lya chgn dia diem, FDI ton tai do sy khong di dgng ciia mgt so yeu to san xuat quoc te nhu lao dgng, nguon tai nguyen thien nhien... (Horst, 1972; Wheeler &
cgng sy, 2001). Tuang img vai timg muc dich nghien eun khac nhau, cae nha nghien Cliu lap luan va van dung cac li thuyet vao nghien cuu cua minh ciing khac nhau. Ben canh viee nghien cuu ve eac yeu to ngi tai ciia DN, co rat nhieu eong trinh nghien cuu xem xet tac dgng ciia yeu to ben ngoai den quyet dinh dau tu tryc tiep ra nuac ngoai (Lu
& cgng sy, 2011; Goh & Wong, 2011; Marson & Shahbudin, 2010; Gammeltoft, 2008;
Cheng & cgng sy, 2007; Deng, 2004; Andreff, 2003...). Trong do, co hai huang nghien cuu da va dang dien ra, do la cac nghien ciru tap trung xem xet cac yeu to thiic day tir trong nuac (Lu & cgng sy, 2011; Marson & Shahbudin, 2010; Kayam, 2009; UNCTAD, 2006) hoac tap trung vao cac yeu to thu hut ciia thi truang nuac ngoai (Anil & cgng sy, 2014; Duanmu & cgng sy, 2009; Dunning, 2002; Sun, 2002).
Nam 2009, Kayam da thyc hien nghien ciin thyc nghiem nham kiem dinh cac nhan to trong nuac thiic day FDI. Qua ket qua hoi quy tuyen tinh vai dii lieu thu cip, Kayam (2009) eho rang co sy khac nhau giira cac yeu to thiic day cac DN thugc chau A, chau My va chau Phi quyet dinh dau tu ra nuac ngoai trong do, miic do canh tranh trong thi truang ngi dia se tac dgng tich cyc den dau tu tryc tiep ra nuac ngoai. Tuy nhien, ti le lao dgng/dan so co tac dgng tieu eye len OFDI a chau A va chau Phi; ca sa ha ting eo tac dgng va y nghTa quan trgng doi vai OFDI a chau A; lam phat va trinh do phat triln kinh te co tac dgng tieu cyc len OFDI a cac nuac chau My.
Cufig huong nghien cuu tren, nam 2010, Masron va Shahbudin da xem xet cac ylu to tac dgng vao quyet dinh dau tu ra nuac ngoai ciia cac DN Malaysia va Thai Lan trong giai doan 1980-2006. Co 4 yeu to dugc nhac den trong nghien cuu nay la: (1) Dilu kien thj truang, (2) chi phi san xuat, (3) dieu kien kinh doanh trong nuac, va (4) chinh sach ciia chinh phii. Ket qua phan tich hoi quy tuyln ti'nh cho thay, ca 4 ylu t6 nay dlu tac dgng den quyet djnh dau tu ra nuac ngoai trong do, ylu to dilu kien thi truang trong nuac dong vai tro quan trgng nhat trong cac nhan t6 kinh tl, tilp theo la chinh sach ciia chinh phil nham khuyen khfch dau tu.
Nam 2011, Lu va cgng sy da thyc hien kilm dinh bSng mo hinh ciu triic tuyln tinh (SEM) vai miu la 883 DN thugc 7 tinh a Trung Quic, kit qua cho thiy co 3 ylu to tac dgng din quylt dmh diu tu ra nuac ngoai cua DN Trung Quic: (1) Nguon lyc ban than
8 va Thanh Thu & cflng sir. Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 27(9), 04-33
DN, (2) thi truang trong nuac, va (3) sy ho trg ciia chfnh phu trong nuac. Trong do, sy ho trg cua chinh phii la ylu t l tac dgng manh me nhat din quylt dinh dau tu' ra nuac ngoai.
Tom lai, cac nha nghien ciin cho rang dgng ca thiic day cac DN quyet dinh dau tu sang nuac ngoai co the la do thj truang trong nuac khong con hap dan (Lu & cgng sy, 2011; Marson & Shahbudin, 2010; Kayam, 2009; UNCTAD, 2006), chi phf dl hoat dong kinh doanh trong nuac qua cao (Marson & Shahbudin 2010; Kayam, 2009), nguon tai nguyen ngay cang can kiet hoac kho de tiep can (Marson & Shahbudin, 2010; UNCTAD, 2006), ca sa ha tang (Kayam, 2009). Ben canh do, de cac DN FDI co the thuan Igi diu tu ra nuac ngoai doi hoi sy ho trg rat Ion tii' chinh phu trong nuoc trong viec dua ra cac quy dinh, chi'nh sach... (Lu & cgng sy, 2011; Marson & Shahbudin, 2010; UNCTAD, 2006).
Theo huang nghien cim cac yeu to thu hiit dau tu ciia thi truang nudc ngoai, nam 2002, Dunning da thuc hien nghien cuu thyc nghiem vl cac nhan t l tac dgng din viec lya chgn dia dilm dau tu tryc tilp ra nuoc ngoai ciia cac DN. BSng viec phan tfch s6 lieu thong ke ciia UNCTAD trong giai doan 1985-2001 kit hgp vai phong vin chuyen gia, Dunning (2012) chi ra ring co 3 nhan t l tac dgng din viec lya chgn dia dilm diu tu', cu the la:
- Chinh sach thu hiit diu tu, bao gom: Chfnh sach un dai trong diu tu FDI; chinh sach phat trien kinh te tu nhan; quy dinh thi thyc xuit - nhap canh; chinh sach hai quan; chinh sach thue; chi'nh sach ma cira, hgi nhap.
- Nhom nhan to kinh te, bao glm: Dgng ca diu tu ciia cac tap doan da quic gia; quy mo ciia thi trucmg; nhu ciu ciia thj truang; nguon lyc ciia thi trudng, tai nguyen thien nhien; gia nhan cong va ky nang tay nghi; ca sd ha ting phuc vy cho kinh doanh; chi phi va hieu qua kinh doanh; hoat dgng giao due va dao tao.
- Nhom nhan to tien ich phuc vu cho kinh doanh, bao gom: He thong buu chinh viin thong; cac loai hinh djch vu tai chi'nh ngan hang; thii tuc hanh chi'nh; tinh hinh tham nhung; tien ich xa hgi; vin de bao ve quyen sd huu trf tue cua nha diu tu.
Nam 2009, nghien ciin cac ylu t l thu hiit diu tu true tilp nudc ngoai tai An Do va Trung Quoc, Duanmu va Guney xem xet din cac ylu to: (1) Thi trudng; (2) sy giam gia eua dong tien nudc ngoai; (3) moi trudng thi chl tot; (4) khoang each dja If; (5) sy ben virng chinh tri;^ va (6) nguin luc ty nhien. Kit qua nghien ciin nay chi ra ed sy khac nhau giua cac yeu to thu hut diu tu tai An Do va Trung Quoc; trong do, khoang each dja li va
ve Thanh Thu & cpng su. Tap chi Phat trign Kinh tj, 27(9), 04-33
nguon lyc ty nhien khong cd y nghTa doi vdi hoat dgng thu hiit dau tu d An Do; dong thdi, nguon lye ty nhien ciing khong co y nghTa doi vdi hoat dgng thu hiit dau tu d Trung Quoc.
Anil va cgng sy (2014) da cung eip nhung thong tin ed gia trj vl hoat dgng thu hiit diu tu d cac nudc mdi nii hoac dang chuyen doi. Vdi dU lieu thu dugc tir 7 DN d Tho NhT Ky diu tu vao Romanian, kit qua phan ti'ch cho thiy co 4 ylu to thiic day cac DN diu tu sang nudc ngoai la: (1) Chi phf hoat dgng; (2) thi chl (on dinh chfnh tri, tuang ding van hoa, sy hgi nhap quic tl); (3) nguon tai nguyen; va (4) thi trudng hap dan.
Nhin chung, nhirng phat hien cua nghien cim nay giiip hieu ro hon hanh vi cua cae DN khi dau tu vao thi trudng mdi noi hoac chuyen doi.
Cling theo hudng nghien ciru tip trung vao nhom cac yeu to thu hut ciia thi trudng nudc ngoai, mgt so nha nghien cuu lap luan, DN quyet dinh dau tu sang nude ngoai co the xuat phat tir: (1) Viec nhan rgng sy hap dan ciia thi trudng d nudc dy dinh dau tu (Duanmu & cgng sy, 2009; Buckley & cgng sy, 2007; Dunning, 2002; Sun, 2002); (2) Chi phi de boat dgng kinh doanh thap (Anil & cgng sy 2014; Dunning, 2002; Sun, 2002);
(3) Nguon tai nguyen doi dao hoac de tiep can (Anil & cgng sy, 2014; Duanmu & Guney, 2009; Dunning, 2002; Sun, 2002); (4) Co vi tri dia li gan hoac co sy tucmg dong ve van hda (Anil & cgng sy, 2014; Duanmu & Guney, 2009); (5) Ca sd ha tang cho kinh doanh (Dunning, 2004); (6) Sy ho trg kinh doanh eiia chinh phii nudc sd tai (Anil & cgng sy, 2014; Duanmu & Guney, 2009; Buckley & cgng sy, 2007; Dunning, 2002; Sun, 2002);
hoac (7) Do sy hgi nhap kinh te quoc te tot (Anil & cgng sy, 2014; Dunning, 2002).
Ngoai cac hudng nghien cim tren, ciing c6 nghien cuu xem xet dong thdi den ca yeu to thiic day Ian thu hiit dau tu tryc tiep, nhu nghien cuu cua Aykut va Ratha (2004). Bang viec sir dung thong tin ddng von FDI cua Ngan hang the gidi va Quy tien te the gidi trong giai doan 1994—2000 ciia 3 nhdm: (l)Nhdm cac nudc thanh vien OECD; (2) Nhdm cac nudc khong thugc OECD; va (3) Nhdm cac nudc phat trien. Ket qua phan tfch cho thay, khi quyet dinh dau tu tryc tiep ra nudc ngoai, cac DN hi tac dgng bdi cac yeu to sau:
- Cac yeu td thugc nhdm thiic day dau tu gdm: Ngudn vdn trong nudc ddi dao, chi phf nhan cdng tang, mirc do canh tranh gay gat, lai suat va mire tang trudng cdng nghiep thap, cac quy dinh va chinh sach cua chinh phii khuyen khich dau tu ra nudc ngoai.
10 Vo Thanh Thu & cflng sir. Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 27(9), 04-33
- Cac ylu td thudc nhdm thu hut diu tu gdm: Thi trudng ldn va tang nhanh, v. tn dia li gin nhau va tuang ddng vl van hda, chi phi nhan cdng re, sy phong phu ve nguyen lieu thd, ca sd ha ting phat triln, chinh sach diu tu thdng thoang va cd nhieu uu dai.
Tdng kit cac cdng trinh gin vdi chii dl ciia nghien ciin, tac gia nhan thiy ngoai nghien cim ciia Aykut va Ratha (2004), phin Idn cac nha khoa hgc deu chgn nghien eiin theo 2 hudng rieng trong viec If giai cac nguyen nhan diu tu true tiepra nudc ngoai (Hinh 1):
Hu'dng thu nhit la cac nhan t l thiic diy diu tu (nhin tir nudc xuat khau vdn); Hudng thii hai la cac nhan td thu hut diu tu (nhin tir nudc nhap khiu vdn). Tdng kit cac yeu td thuoc 2 nhdm ylu to nay dugc thi hien qua Bang 1 va Bang 2.
Thiic diy diu tU'
Thu hiit dau tu
Hinh 1. Md ta cac ylu t l tac ddng din quyet dinh dau tu cua cac DN Bang 1
Nhom cac yeu td thiic day dau tu tir phia nudc xuat khau vdn Cac yeu to thiic day dau tu tir
phia nuac xuat khau (XK) von Nhom ylu t6 Cac cong trinh nghien ciiu dien hinh
Quy mo thi truong khong du lo'n Thj truong Masron va Shahbudin (2010), 1 cho phat triln nuac XK v6n UNCTAD (2006)
Vo Thanh Thu & cong su. Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 27(9). 04-33 11
TT Cac yeu to thuc day dau tu tii
phia nuac xuat khau (XK) von Nhom ylu t6 Cac cong trinh nghien ciru dien hinh
Toe do tang truang kinh te khong nhu ki vgng
Lu va cgng sir (2011), Masron va Shahbudin (2010), UNCTAD (2006), Aykut va Ratha (2004)
Ap lire canh tranh ciia thj tnrong rat cao, khien kinh doanh trong nuac tro nen kho khan
Lu va cgng su (2011), Masron va Shahbudin (2010), Kayam (2009), UNCTAD (2006), Aykut va Ratha (2004)
Chi phi nhan cong tang cao 4
Chi phi nguyen vat lieu dau vao 5 cao
Chi phi kinh doanh
Masron va Shahbudin (2010), Kayam (2009), Aykut va Ratha (2004) Masron va Shahbudin (2010) He thong giao thong noi lien
6 giua nuoc XK von va nhap khau Co so ha tang Kayam (2009) (NK) v6n
Mirc do san co nguon tai nguyen 7 (Dat, nuoc, khoang san) giam,
tiep can kho khan
Nguon tai Masron va Shahbudin (2010), nguyen UNCTAD (2006)
10
Quy djnh, thil tuc ve cap phep dau tu ra nuac ngoai
Chinh sach khuyen khich, uu dai dau tu ra nuac ngoai cua nuoc XK
Quy dinh ve khai thac tai nguyen ngay cang chat che, kho khan cila nuac XK von
Quy djnh, chinh sach lien quan den dautu'
Lu va cgng su (2011), Masron va Shahbudin (2010), UNCTAD (2006), Aykut va Ratha (2004)
Lu va cgng su (2011), Masron va Shahbudin (2010), UNCTAD (2006), Aykut va Ratha (2004)
Lu va cgng sy (2011), Masron va Shahbudin (2010), UNCTAD (2006), Aykut va Ratha (2004)
Nguon-. Tong hgp cua tac gia
12 Vo Thanh Thu & cflng su. Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te. 27(9), 04-33
Bang 2
Nhdm cac y l u to thu hiit d i u tu tir phfa nudc nhap khiu vdn
TT Cac ylu tl thu hut dau tu tii phia ^„ , ^ x „ , . ^. , . . . • ,,•' w u , !, Nhom yeu to Cac cong trmh nghien cuu dien hmh nuoc NK von
Thj truang NK von con cho cho su phat trien mgt so nganh 2 Toe do tang truong
Ap luc canh tranh cua thi truong von kha thap
Thj trucmg nudc NK von
Anil va cgng su (2014), Dunning (2002)
Anil va cgng sy (2014), Duanmu va Guney (2009), Aykut va Ratha (2004), Dunning (2002), Sun (2002) Duanmu va Guney (2009), Dunning (2002)
Chi phi lao dgng kha thap
Chi phi kinh Chi phi nguyen vat lieu dau vao doanh kha thap
Anil va cgng su (2014), Aykut va Ratha (2004), Dunning (2002), Sun (2002)
Anil va cgng su (2014), Dunning (2002)
Miic do san co nguon tai nguyen 6 (dat, nudc, cac tai nguyen thien
nhien...) kha cao
Nguon tai nguyen
Anil va cgng su (2014), Duanmu va Guney (2009), Aykut va Ratha (2004), Dunning (2002), Sun (2002)
Quy djnh, thu tuc ve cip phep diu tu cila nudc NK vln
Quy djnh.
Quy dinh ve dieu kien khai thac chinh sach tai nguyen cua nudc NK vln lien quan den
' dau tu Quyen sd huu tai san tu nhan d nudc NK vln
Duanmu va Guney (2009), Aykut va Ratha (2004), Dunning (2002), Sun (2002)
Duanmu va Guney (2009), Aykut va Ratha (2004), Dunning (2002) Duanmu va Guney (2009), Aykut va Ratha (2004), Dunning (2002), Sun (2002)
Vo Thanh Thu & cong su Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 27(9), 04-33 13
TT Cac yeu to thu hut dau tu tir phia
nudc NK von Nhdm ylu t l Cac cong trinh nghien ciiu dien hinh 10 Vi tri dia II nudc NK von so vdi
nudc XK von la tuang doi gan
Dja Ii, van Su tuang dong ve van hoa giila ""^
hai nudc
Duanmu va Guney (2009), Aykut va Ratha (2004)
Anil va cong su (2014), Aykut va Ratha (2004)
12 13
He thong giao thong (cau dudng, ben bai...) phat trien Cd he thong ha tang cho khu cong nghiep/ khu che xuat
Ca sd ha tang
Aykut va Ratha (2004), Dunning (2002)
Aykut va Ratha (2004), Dunning (2002)
Tiep can gan han vdi khach 14 hang
Phuc vu cho cac DN ddng g^p ^^g ^^
^ ^ huang dang diu m tai nudc NK ciu va tilp thi von (cung cap nguyen vat lieu
ho trg)
Anil va cgng su (2014), Sun (2002)
Anil vacdng su(2014), Sun (2002)
16
Su hgi nhap kinh te qudc te cua nudc thu hiit FDI (thanh vien WTO, hudng che do uu dai thue quan pho cap, Hiep dinh thuang mai song phuang va da phucmg...)
Moi trudng hgi nhap quoc tl
Anil va cong su (2014), Dunning (2002)
Su dn djnh ciia chinh phii, tinh 17 trang tham nhung, ki thj sac
tgc...
Quan he chinh tri vdi nuac XK vdn tdt
Rui ro chinh tri
Anil va cgng su (2014), Duanmu va Guney (2009), Vichea (2005), Dunning (2002)
Anil va cgng sir (2014), Vichea (2005), Dunning (2002) Nguon: Tong hgp cua tac gia
Tren c a sd nghien ciiu li thuyet ve FDI va md hinh nghien edu ciia Aykut va Ratha (2004) cung nhu cac cdng trinh nghien ciru thyc nghiem lien quan (Bang 1, Bang 2), tac gia xac dinh cd 2 nhdm yeu td tac ddng chinh va ddng thdi den hoat ddng d i u tu cua DN
ve Thanh Thu & cpng sir. Tap chi PhSt trien Kinh te, 27(9), 04-33
VN sang Campuchia: (1) Nhdm cac ylu t l tae ddng thiic diy diu tu tir phfa VN (Push Factor), va (2) Nhdm nhan t l tac dgng thu hut diu tu tir phfa Campuchia (Pull Factor).
Trong do, tac gia xac dinh cd 7 ylu t l thugc 2 nhom nay ciing tac dgng den quyet dinh diu tu vao Campuchia (Hinh 2). Cac gia thuylt thilt lap cho md hinh nghien cuu li thuyet nhu sau:
Hi: Kinh ti vi mo va thi truang tdc dong tich cue din quyit dinh ddu tu vdo Campuchia.
Hi: Chi phi lao dong, nguon nguyin lieu tdc dong tich cue din quyit dinh ddu tu vdo Campuchia.
H3: Ca sa hg tdng tdc dong tich cue din quyit dinh ddu tu vdo Campuchia.
H4: Nguon tdi nguyen tdc dong tich cue din quyit dinh ddu tu vdo Campuchia.
Hs: Quy dinh, chinh sdch liin quan din ddu tu tdc tich cue din quyit dinh ddu tu vdo Campuchia.
He: Vdn hoa - dia li tdc dong tich cue din quyet dinh ddu tu vdo Campuchia.
H?: Riii ro chinh tri tdc dong tich cue din quyit dinh ddu tu vdo Campuchia.
Kinh te vT mo va thj trtriro'ng
Chi phi lao dong, nguon nguyen lieu
Co' SO' ha tang
Hi(+)
ff>r+>
M+)
Nguon tai nguyen H^(+i ^ ~ ~ ~ ^ l Quyet dinh dau tu-vao Campuchia
Quy djnh, chinh sach lien quan den dau tu'
H5(^
H6(+)y
Van hoa - dia li
Riii ro chinh tri
Hinh 2. Md hinh nghien ciiu dl xuat
v s Thanh Thu & cpng su. Tap chi Phat trien Kinh ti. 27(9), 04-33 15
3. PhiroTig phap nghien cu-u
Nghien cuu sir dung phoi hgp hai phuang phap: (I) Nghien cii'u djnh tinh va (2) Nghien ciin dinh lugng.
Nghien cuu dinh tfnh dugc thye hien thdng qua thao luan nhdm, trong nhom ed 6 chuyen gia da va dang d i u tu tryc tilp tai Campuchia. Nghien eun nay nham dieu chinh thang do, cu the, ngoai viec dieu chinh tir ngir, y nghTa cac bien quan sat eho phii hgp vdi thi trudng Campuchia, nghien eun dinh tinh da bd sung them 3 bien quan sat cho thang do kinh t l vT md va thi trudng, thang do chi phi. Ket qua tir 40 bien quan sat ban dau, sau khi thao luan nhdm, cac chuyen gia da giup tac gia bd sung them 3 bien quan sat. Cudi Cling, thang do bao gdm cac bien quan sat nhu Bang 3. Cac thang do dugc sir dyng trong md hinh dugc ke thira va dieu chinh tii thang do ciia Anil & cgng sy (2014), Marson & Shahbudin (2010), Aykut & Ratha (2004), va Dunning (2002), cu t h i nhu sau:
Kinh te vT md va thi trudng: Sir dyng thang do cua Aykut va Ratha (2004), va Dunning (2002).
- Chi phf lao ddng, ngudn nguyen lieu: Su dyng thang do ciia Masron va Shahbudin (2010), Aykut va Ratha (2004), va Dunning (2002).
- C a sd ha tang: Sir dyng thang do ciia Masron va Shahbudin (2010), Aykut va Ratha (2004), va Dunning (2002).
Ngudn tai nguyen: Sii dyng thang do cua Aykut va Ratha (2004), va Dunning (2002).
- Quy dinh, chfnh sach lien quan den dau tu: Sir dung thang do ciia Aykut va Ratha (2004).
- Van hda - dia li: Sir dyng thang do ciia Aykut va Ratha (2004).
- Rili ro chinh tri: Sir dyng thang do ciia Dunning (2002).
Bang 3
Cae thang do sau khi dugc hieu ehinh thdng qua nghien cuu dinh tfnh Ki hieu Bien quan sat
Kinh te vT md va thi trudng
KT 1 Quy mo thj trudng Campuchia du ldn cho DN md rgng dau tu ra nudc ngoai
16 va Thanh Thu & cflng sir. Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 27(9), 04-33
Ki hieu Bien quan sat
KT2 Ap luc canh tranh cua thj trudng Campuchia thap KT3 Toe do tang trudng cua thi trudng Campuchia nhanh KT4 Moi trudng phap li cua Campuchia ngay cang hoan thien KT5 Ap luc canh tranh tai thi tru'dng VN gia tang
KT6* Chinh sach tai chinh tien te, lai suat cua VN hay thay doi bat lgi cho nha dau tu , Campuchia dugc hudng nhieu uu dai thue quan cua cac nudc khac so vdi VN (GSP,
Thul NK=0)
Chi phi lao dgng, ngudn nguy6n lieu
CPI Chi phi su dung lao dgng phd thong d Campuchia thip
CP2 Chi phi sir dung ngudn nhan luc va bao hilm xa hgi d 'VN gia tang CPS Chi phi van tai va chi phi sii dung ca sd ha ting d 'VN gia tang CP4 Chi phi sii' dung co sd ha ting va khai thac tai nguyen kha thip
Chi phi triln khai du an FDI d Campuchia khdng cao (xin giiy phep, thii tuc hanh chinh CP5 dl triln khai du an FDI)
CP6* Chi phi su dung lao dgng cd ky nang (quan trj va chuyen gia) d Campuchia kha thip Ca sd ha tang
HTl He thing giao thdng (ciu, cang dudng, bin bai, xe eg...) cila Campuchia thuan tien HT2 He thing giao thong nii Iiln VN va Campuchia thuan tien (thuy, bd, hang khdng...) HT3 He thdng ha tang khu cdng nghiep/khu chl xuit cila Campuchia phat triln HT4 He thdng thdng tin, internet cua Campuchia thuan tien
HT5 He thdng cung cip dien, nudc ciia Campuchia dap iing yeu ciu cua DN FDI HT6 Ngudn nhan luc tai Campuchia dap ung yeu ciu du an ciia VN
HT7 Djch vu y tl, kham chua benh cua Campuchia dap iing yeu ciu ciia DN FDI HT8 Djch vu vui choi giai tri cua Campuchia dap ung yeu ciu cua nha diu tu nudc ngoai Ngudn tai nguyen
TNI Mii'c do sin cd cua hai san d Campuchia ddi dao
Vo Thanh Thu & cflng sir. Tap chi PhSt men Kinh te, 27(9), 04-33 17
Ki hieu Bien quan sat
TN2 Muc do khan hiem tai nguyen bien d VN gia tang TN3 Miic do san cd cua Iam san d Campuchia ddi dao TN4 Miic do sin cd cua ndng san d Campuchia ddi dao TN5 Khoang san d Campuchia dap iing yeu cau khai thac TN6 Tai nguyen nudc d Campuchia kha ddi dao
TN7 Miic do sSn cd cua quy dat de san xuat, kinh doanh d Campuchia ddi dao Quy djnh, chinh sach lien quan den dau tu
QCl Quy dinh, thu tuc ve cap phep dau tu ra nudc ngoai cila VN ngay cang thuan tien QC2 Quy djnh, thu tuc ve cap phep dau tu cua Campuchia de dang
Chinh sach khuyen khi'ch, uu dai dau tu ra nudc ngoai cua VN, dac biet vdi Campuchia ngay cang cai thien
QC4 Quy djnh ve khai thac tai nguyen cila Campuchia thap
QC5 Cd nhieu chinh sach khuyen khich, uu dai dau tu nudc ngoai vao Campuchia Van hda - dja Ii
VD 1 Thai do, tdn giao tin nguang cua hai nudc kha tuang ddng VD2 Van hda va am thuc hai nudc kha gidng nhau
VD3 Phong tuc va tap quan cua hai nudc tuang dong VD4 Ngdn ngO va giao tiep cila hai nudc tuong ddng VD5 Campuchia va VN cd vi tri dja Ii gan nhau Rui ro chinh trj
RC1 Campuchia va VN cd quan he chinh trj than thiet RC2 Hinh anh quoc gia Campuchia ngay cang dugc nang cao RC3 Chinh trj d Campuchia ngay cang dn dinh
RC4 Su ki thj sac tgc cua Campuchia ngay cang giam RC5 Tinh trang tham nhung cua Campuchia ngay cang it Quyet dinh dau tu vao Campuchia
18 Vo Thanh Thu & cgng su. Tap chi Phat tri6n Kmh 16, 27(9), 04-33
Ki hieu Bien quan sat
Y DN se dau tu/gia tang dau tu vao Campuchia.
Ghi chu: *: Cac bien quan sat dugc bd sung tii cac chuyen gia.
Nguon-. Ket qua nghien ciiu dinh tinh
Tir cac thang do da hieu ehinh, bang cau hdi ehinh thiic dugc thiet lap. Tae gia lya chgn thang do Likert 5 muc do, vdi (1) Hoan toan khdng dong y, (2) Khdng ddng y, (3) Trung hoa, (4) Ddng y, va (5) Hoan toan ddng y. Moi cau la mdt phat bieu vl mdt tieu chf nao do trong mdt khai niem ciia md hinh. Bang cau hdi chi'nh thii'c bao gom 44 bien quan sat tuang ung vdi 8 thang do trong md hinh nghien cuu. Vl phuang phap dilu tra, phuong phap phdng van tryc tilp dugc xem la phuang phap ed ti le phan hoi cao nhit.
Ben canh do, phuang phap nay cho phep tac gia lam ro nhiing phat bilu tdi nghTa vdi dap vien cung nhu lam giam nhiing sai lech cd thi cd. Vdi nhung If do tren, nghien cuu sii dyng phuong phap phdng vin tryc tilp dl thu thap dil' lieu. Tuy nhien, vdi phuang phap nay, chi phf thyc hien kha cao. Do gidi han vl thdi gian, chi phf thyc hien, mau nghien ciin dugc lya chgn theo phuong phap thuan tien va phat triln mim. Theo do, bang khao sat dugc gui din cac DN TP.HCM da diu tu vao Campuchia. Sau do, cac DN nay se hd trg thdng tin vl DN khac ciing dang diu tu hoac cd y dinh diu tu vao Campuchia. Thdng qua cau hdi gan Igc (Da/dang diu tu true tilp tai Campuchia; Co y djnh dau tu tryc tiep vao Campuchia; Khdng cd y djnh diu tu true tilp vao Campuchia), cac bang khao sat khdng thugc dii tugng khao sat dugc loai ra.
Phuong phap phan tfch du lieu chfnh duge sii dung cho nghien ciiu la phan tfch tren md hinh ciu triic tuyln tfnh (SEM). Dl dat udc lugng tin cay cho phuang phap nay, mau nghien ciin phai cd kfch thudc ldn (Raykov & Widaman, 1995). Tuy nhien, hien nay, vi?c xac djnh kich thude miu bao nhieu la ldn vln chua ro rang. Ben canh do, kfch thudc mau cdn phu thude vao phuang phap sii' dung eho ude lugng (ML, GLS, ADF...). Theo Hair va cdng sy (2009), vdi phuang phap ML thi kich thude miu tdi thilu phai tir 100 den 150. Theo Hoelter (1983) kich thudc miu tii thilu phai la 200'. Ben canh do, Bollen (1989) cho kich thudc miu tdi thilu la 5 miu cho 1 tham sd udc luang'. Trong nghien Clin nay, eo tat ea 44 tham sd ude lugng nen kich thudc miu tdi thilu la 220. Tuy nhien, ca mau cang ldn thi cang giam nhung sai lech do liy miu. Vi vay, nghien ciru nay phat ra 300 phieu dieu tra cho cac DN dang sinh hoat tai Hiep hdi huu nghi VN Campuchia va Hiep hg. cac nha dau tu vao Campuchia, ddng thdi philu khao sat cting duac gdi true tiep den cac DN tham gia Hdi nghj xuc tiln diu tu VN - Campuchia lin 3 va lin 4 (mdi
Vo Thanh Thu & cdng su. Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 27(9), 04-33 19
lan c6 khoang 600 dai bieu quan chiic chinh phii 2 nudc va cac DN tham gia). Ket qua thu ve cd 248 phieu hgp le. Thdng qua cau hdi gan Ige, mau xac dinh ddi tugng tham gia khao sat la cac DN da va dang dau tu tai thi trudng Campuchia va cac DN cd y djnh dau tu vao Campuchia (cd hoat dgng kinh doanh sang Campuchia nhu xuat nhap khau, dau thau, dich vu van chuyen, du lich...). Cu the, caeau mau nhu sau:
Bang 4 Dac diem mau Dac diem
Ba, dang dau tu true tiep
Cd y djnh dau tu (xuat - nhap khau, dau thau, djch vu) Tdng
Sd lugng DN 33 215 248
Ti le (%) 13,3 86,7 100 Nguon: Ket qua khao sat cua nhdm tac gia
Dir lieu thu thap dugc dua vao xir li, phan tich bang phan mem SPSS 20. Thdng qua dii lieu nay, cac thang do dugc danh gia do tin cay bang he sd Cronbach's Alpha. Thang do dugc chap nhan khi he sd Cronbach's Alpha ldn han 0,6 (Nunnally & Bernstein, 1994; Nguyen Dinh Thg, 2011) va he sd tuong quan bien - tdng > 0,3. Tiep theo, cac bien quan sat dugc kiem dinh gia tri thdng qua phan tfch nhan td (EFA). Cac biln cd trgng sd (Factor Loading) nhd han 0,5 va chenh lech trgng sd nhd han 0,3 (Nunnaly &
Bernstein, 1994; Nguyen Dinh Thg, 2011) se tiep tuc bi loai. Phuang phap trich he sl dugc sir dung la Principal Components vdi phep quay Varimax. Thang do dugc chip nhan khi tdng phuang sai tri'ch >50% (Nunnaly & Bernstein, 1994; Nguyen Dinh Thg, 2011). Md hinh hdi quy tuyen tinh bdi (vdi phuong phap Step'wise) dugc sir dung nhim xac dinh nhirng nhan td nao that sy tac ddng den quyet dinh diu tu vao Campuchia ciia cac DN VN va xem xet mirc do cua sy tac ddng nay.
4. Ket qua nghien cwu
4.1. Mo td dif liiu nghiin ciru
Chudi dS lieu nghien cuu ed sy bien ddng nhe giira gia tri trung binh, gia tri ldn nhit, gia tri nhd nhat va do leeh ehuan. Phan Idn cac biln quan sat dlu c6 phan phli lech trai, ngoai trir KT2, CPI, CP2, CP3, QC4 (Skewness Idn han 0). Xet vl hinh dang phan phdi, tat ca cac bien quan sat deu ed hinh dang thap va tii vdi 2 dudi dai.
20 Vo Thanh Thu & cpng sit. Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 27(9), 04-33
Bang 5
Md ta dii lieu nghien eiin Bien
quan sat KTl KT2 KT3 KT4 KT5 KT6 KT7 CPI CP2 CP3 CP4 CPS CP6 HTl HT2 HT3 HT4 HT5 HT6 HT7 HT8 TNI TN2
S6 quan sat
248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248
Gia tri nhd nhat
3 3 3 2 3 3
Gia trj Idn nhat
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Trung binh 3,06 3,42 3,23 3,35 3,16 3,67 3,81 4,37 4,46 4,44 4,13 4,43 4.21 3,12 2,79 3,07 3,00 3,21 2,85 3,04 3,82 3,28 3,21
Do lech chuan 0,758 0,744 0,845 0,771 0,746 0,822 1,125 0,515 0,508 0,505 0,758 0,535 0,571 0,968 0,905 0,973 0,975 0,831 0,975 0,836 1,129 0,940 0,727
Skewness -0,101 0,027 -0,304 -0,439 -0,153 -0,599 -0,592 0,195 0,053 0,167 -0,670 -0,107 -0,018 -0,371 -0,175 -0,085 -0,282 -0,230 -0,207 -0,210 -0,607 -0,267 -0,209
Kurtosis -0,047 0,350 -0,261 0,642 -0,302 0,759 -0,471 -1,160 -1,773 -1,742 0,291 -1,158 -0,272 -0,081 0,017 -0,289 -0,370 0,270 -0,269 0,401 -0,471 -0,287 0,583
ve Thanh Thu & cpng su. Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 27(9), 04-33 21
Bien quan sat
TN3 TN4 TN5 TN6 TN7 QCI QC2 QC3 QC4 QC5 VD!
VD2 VD3 VD4 VD5 RCI RC2 RC3 RC4 RC5 Y
Sd quan sat
248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248 248
Gia trj Gia trj nhd nhat Idn nhat
I 5 1 5 I 5 I 5 1 5 1 5 I 5 1 5 1 5 I 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 I 5 I 5 I 5 I 5 I 5 1 5 1 5 2 4
Trung binh 3,10 3,30 3,35 2,87 3,18 3,29 3,54 3,54 2,94 3,15 3,67 3,32 3,21 3,60 3,43 3,80 3,87 3,77 3,44 3,75 3,23
Do lech chuan 0,945 0,901 0,860 0,883 0,805 0,884 0,814 0,843 0,882 0,927 0,683 0,769 0,784 0,752 0,963 1,034 0,913 0,949 1,059 0,948 0,334
Ske'wness -0,348 -0,534 -0,320 -0,234 -0,099 -0,143 -0,440 -0,447 0,118 -0,217 -0,385 -0,357 -0,345 -0,334 -0,600 -0,896 -1,093 -0,835 -0,510 -0,783 -0,408
Kurtosis -0,108
0,436 0,158 0,316 0,420 -0,195 0,284 -0,095 -0,228 -0,282 0,590 0,343 -0,400 0,142 0,023 0,458 1,479 0,640 -0,387 0,448 0,191 Nguon-. Tinh toan cua tac gia
4.2. Ddnh gid chung vi do tin cdy thang do vd phdn tich nhdn to
Sau khi cac thang do dugc dua vao danh gia, kit qua co 6 biln quan sat bj loai do khdng du dieu kien (he so tuong quan biln - t d n g <0,3). Cae biln bi loai la: KT7, CP4, HT3, HT8, TNI va TN2. He sd Cronbach's Alpha ciia 7 thang do nay cung dlu thda
22 Vo Thanh Thu & cong sit. Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 27(9), 04-33
dilu kien (Bang 6). Vi vay, 37 biln quan sat thudc 7 thang do nay tilp tyc dugc dua vao phan tich kham pha nhan to (EFA) dl kilm dinh gia tri.
Bang 6
Kit qua danh gia do tin cay thang do Bien
Kinh te KTl KT2 KT3 KT4 KT5 KT6 Chi phi
CPI CP2 CP3 CP5 CP6
Trung binh thang do Phuong sai thang do nlu loai bi6n neu loai bien vTmo vd thi trudng-. a = 0,798
lao dgng,
Ca sa hg tdng-. a '- HTl
HT2 HT4 HT5 HT6 HT7
Nguont di nguyen 16,84 16,48 16,67 16,55 16,74 16,23
nguon nguyen lieu-, a - 17,53
17,44 17,46 17,47 17,69
= 0,778 14,90 15,22 15,02 14,81 15,16 14,97 : a = 0,755
7,874 7,919 7,769 7,828 8,265 7,832 '=0,876
3,141 3,170 2,922 2,906 3,201
10,872 10,438 9,571 10,804 10,101 10,639
Tucmg quan biln - tdng
0,588 0,593 0,524 0,587 0,497 0,532
0,681 0,676 0,853 0,799 0,549
0,397 0,527 0,633 0,522 0,531 0,552
Alpha neu loai bien
0,759 0,758 0,775 0,759 0,779 0,772
0,856 0,857 0,815 0,827 0,890
0,777 0,744 0,715 0,746 0,743 0,739
ve Thanh Thu & cong sir. Tap chi Phat triSn Kinh te, 27(9), 04-33 23
Bien
TN3 TN4 TN5 TN6 TN7 Quy dinh.
QCl QC2 QC3 QC4 QC5 Van hoa -
VDI VD2 VD3 VD4 VD5
Trung binh thang do neu loai bien
12,70 12,50 12,45 12,93 12,62
Phuong sai thang do neu loai bien
5,864 6,453 7,277 6,704 6,892 chinh sdch lien quan den ddu tu-. a — 0,728
• dia li:
Rui ro chinh trj:
RCI RC2 RC3 RC4 RC5
13,18 12,93 12,93 13,53 13,32 a = 0,767
13,56 13,91 14,02 13,63 13,80 a = 0,789
14,83 14,76 14,87 15,19 14,88
5,979 6,254 6,408 6,315 6,064
5,672 5,963 5,643 5,197 5,247
7,823 9,316 8,432 9,142 9,338
Tuomg quan bien - tdng
0,659 0,548 0,379 0,501 0,528
0,535 0,531 0,459 0,448 0,472
0,629 0,434 0,518 0,707 0,456
0,724 0,525 0,679 0,439 0,490
Alpha neu loai bien 0,656 0,701 0,759 0,719 0,710
0,662 0,666 0,692 0,697 0,689
0,699 0,758 0,731 0,667 0,765
0,693 0,762 0,713 0,794 0,773 Nguon: Tinh toan cua tac gia
24 va Thanh Thu & cpng sir. Tap chi Phat tri^n Kinh 16, 27(9), 04-33
K i t qua phan tieh EFA lin dau cho thay biln TN5 khdng dat d u g c gia tri hdi tu nen bj loai. T u a n g ty, biln R C I , HTl va V D I bj loai d lin phan tich thii' hai, thii ba va thii tu do khdng dat gia tri phan biet. K i t qua phan tfch EFA lin cudi n h u sau:
B a n g ?
Ket qua phan tich nhan to kham pha EFA lin cudi cung Biln
Nhan td 1
CP3 0,920 CP5 0,884 CPI 0,807 CP2 0,800 CP6 0,678
KTl 0,738 KT2 0,736 KT4 0,736 KT6 0,683 KT3 0,676 KT5 0,656
HT4 0,790 HT7 0,747 HT5 0,708 HT6 0,686 HT2 0,680
" Q C I ' 0,731
QC2 0,730 QC5 0,678 QC3 0,666 QC4 0,648
Vo Thanh Thu & cpng su. Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 27(9), 04-33 25
TN3 0,833 TN6 0,750 TN4 0,704 0,230
TN7 0,669
VD3 0,751 VD4 0,728 VD2 0,705 VD5 0,242 0,624 -0,211
RC2 0,752 RC5 0,739 RC4 0,690 RC3 0,668 Trj rieng
Tdng phuang sai trich Cronbach's Alpha
3,580 10,849 0,876
3,196 20,535
0,798
3,103 29,939
0,777 2,775 38,347
0,728
2,400 45,619
0,759
1,973 51,598
0,699
1,399 55,838
0,693 Nguon: Phan tich cua tac gia
Ket qua phan tich cho thay, 33 bien quan sat dugc gom lai thanh 7 nhan td tai tri rieng, vdi tdng phucmg sai trich la 55,38%. Timg nhan td bao gdm cae bien quan sat nhu sau:
Nhan td 1 (Chi phi hoat ddng, ngudn nguyen lieu - ki hieu la CP) gdm 5 bien quan sat: CPI, CP2, CP3, CP5, va CP6.
Nhan td 2 (Kinh te vT md va thi trudng - kf hieu la KTTT) gdm 6 bien quan sat: KTl, KT2, KT3, KT4, KT5, va KT6.
Nhan t l 3 (Ca sd ha ting - ki hieu la CSHT) gom 5 biln quan sat: HT2, HT4, HT5, HT6, va HT7.
Nhan td 4 (Quy dinh, ehi'nh sach lien quan den dau tu - kf hieu la QDCS) gdm 5 biln quan sat: QCl, QC2, QC3, QC4, va QC5.
Nhan td 5 (Ngudn tai nguyen - kf hieu la NTN) bao gdm 4 biln quan sat: TN3, TN4, TN6, va TN7.
26 VO Thanh Thu & cpng su. Tap chi Phat triln Kinh te, 27(9), 04-33
Nhan t l 6 (Van hda - dia li - ki hieu la VHDL) bao gdm 4 b i l n quan sat: V D 2 , VD3, V D 4 , v a V D 5 .
Nhan td 7 (Riii ro chfnh trj - kf hieu la RRCT) bao gdm 4 b i l n quan sat: RC2, RC3, RC4, va RC5.
4.3. Phdn tich kit qud hdi quy cdc nhdn to tdc dong din quyit dinh ddu tu true tiip cita DN VN sang Campuchia.
K i t qua phan tich hoi quy cho thiy, vdi 7 nhan to dua vao de xem xet sy tac ddng din quylt dinh d i u tu tryc tilp ciia VN vao Campuchia (ki hieu la QD), cd 4 md hinh dugc tao ra (Bang 8). Md hinh thu' 4 cd he sd xac dinh hieu chinh cao nhat (0,867), dat dilu kien (>0,50). Vi vay, md hinh thii' 4 dugc chgn. K i t qua nghien ciin ciing eho thay, cac gia dinh ciing khdng vi pham. Phuong trinh hoi quy tuyen tinh bieu dien mdi quan he giiia 4 nhan td tac ddng den quyet dinh dau tu true tiep vao Campuchia n h u sau:
QD = ao+ ai*VHDL + a2*CSHT + a3*KTTT-H a4*QDCS Bangs
Cac md hinh hdi quy tii' phuang phap Stepwise
Md hinh R R^ R-' hieu chinh Sai so chuan He sd Durbin-Watson 1
2 3 4
0,557'' 0,759'' 0,873' 0,931''
0,310 0,576 0,762 0,867
0,307 0,572 0,759 0,865
0,278 0,218 0,164
0,123 1,893
Ghi chu:
a. Bien ddc lap: (Hang sd), VHDL b. Biin dgc lap: (H5ng sd), VHDL, CSHT c. Biln ddc lap: (Hing sd), VHDL, CSHT, KTTT d. Biln ddc lap: (HJng sd), VHDL, CSHT, KTTT, QDCS e. Bien phu thugc: Y
V5 Thanh Thu & cpng sir. Tap chi Phat trien Kinh tr, 27(9), 04-33 27
Histogram Dependent Variable: Y
~ ^ 1
1 r/
/ / / - ^
A
/•\
\
\n
\
" \ l
\
\
-qi^
Regression Standardized Residuai
Hinh 3. Do thi phan phoi tan so cua phan du da chuan hoa
Scatterplot Dependent Variable: Y
o o
0 0
O o
o ° ° o°
o o o
Regression Standardized Predicted Value
Hinh 4. Dd thi phan tan giira gia tri phan du da dugc chuan hda va gia trj dy bao da dugc chuan hda
28 Vo Thanh Thu & cpng su. Tap chi Phat triSn Kinh IS, 27(9), 04-33
Normal P-P Plot of Regression Standardized Residual Dependent Variable: Y
Observed Cum Prob
Hinh 5. Do thi P-P Plot ciia phan du da chuan hda
K8t qua kiSm dinh md hinh cho thay (Bang 7), vdi do tin cay 95%, 4 nhan td tren that sy tac ddng den quylt dinh dau tu vao Campuchia (muc y nghia la 0,000 < 0,05). Dieu nay cd nghTa la cd 4 gia thuydt dugc chip nhan la HI, H3, H5 va H6. Kdt qua nghien Cliu cho thay, quyet dinh dau tu vao Campuchia chiu sy tac dgng bdi; (1) Van hoa - dja li, (2) Co sd ha tang, (3) Kinh te vT md va thi trudng, va (4) Quy dinh, chinh sach lien quan. 4 yeu td nay cd thd giai thich dugc 86,7% cho quydt dinh dau tu vao Campuchia.
Cac phan cdn lai la do sai sd va cac nhan td khac.
Bang 9
He sd hdi quy cua md hinh
He sd He sd chua chuan hda
Md hinh
He sd chuan
hda Gia tri t Muc y ^^ '=9"g '"y^"
nghTa (Hang sd)
VHDL CSHT KTTT
B -0,181
0,350 0,266 0,255
Sai sd chuan 0,088 0,014 0,012 0,014
Beta
0,600 0,503 0,438
-2,068 25,575 21,475 18,672
0,040 0,000 0,000 0,000
Dung sai
0,994 0,997 0,992
VIF
1,006 1,003 1,008
Vo Thanh Thu & cpng su. Tap chi Phat triSn Kinh ti, 27(9), 04-33 29
QDCS 0,171 0,012 0,325 13,882 0,000 0,999 1,001 Tom lai, cac yeu td tac ddng chinh den quyet dinh dau tu vao Campuchia dugc viet lai theo ham hdi quy nhu sau:
QD = - 0,181 -H 0,350*VHDL -H 0,266*CSHT -^ 0,255*KTTT -n 0,171*QDCS Ket qua chi ra nhdm yeu td Van hda - dia li cd tac ddng quan trgng nhat den quyet dinh dau tu cua DN VN sang Campuchia (0,600), tiep den la nhdm yeu td Co sd ha tang (0,503), nhdm Kinh te vT md va thi trudng (0,438) va cudi ciing la nhdm Cac quy djnh chinh, sach lien quan den dau tu (0,325).
5. Ket luan va goi y chfnh sach
Ket qua nghien cuu nay da chi ra: Quyet dinh dau tu tryc tiep vao Campuchia chiu sy tac dgng bd'i 4 yeu td: (I) Van hda - dia li, (2) Co sd ha tang, (3) Kinh te vTmd va thi trudng, va (4) Quy dinh, chinh sach lien quan den dau tu. Ket qua nghien cuu nay mdt lan nGa khang dinh lai ket qua nghien cuu ciia Aykut va Ratha (2004): Quyet dinh dau tu tryc tiep ra nudc ngoai ciia DN chiu sy anh hudng ciia cac yeu td thiic day va thu hiit dau tu. Tuy nhien, tai thi trudng Campuchia, yeu td chi phi, ngudn tai nguyen, riii ro chinh trj khdng cd y nghTa thdng ke trong nghien ciiu nay. Ket qua nay ciing phii hgp vdi ket qua nghien ciiu cua Duanmu va Guney (2009) tai thi trudng Trung Qudc va An Do vi ngudn tai nguyen ciing khdng cd y nghTa thdng ke. Tuy nhien, yeu td chi phi va rui ro chinh tri da dugc rat nhieu nha nghien ciiu khang dinh trong cac nghien cuu ciia minh, do do trong tuong lai, can cd them nhiing md hinh kiem djnh cho cac yeu td nay.
Myc dich ciia nghien ciiu nay la xay dung khung phan tich cac yeu td thu hiit va thiic day tac ddng den hoat ddng dau tu tryc tiep ra nudc ngoai, cy the la Campuchia. Ket qua nghien ciiu chi ra ca 2 nhdm yeu td thiic day dau tu va thu hiit dau tu tac ddng dong thdi den FDI ciia VN sang Campuchia, trong do, cac yeu td thu hiit dau tu giir vai trd chu dao.
Nhdm yeu td thiic day gdm quy dinh, thu tuc ve cap phep dau tu ra nudc ngoai ciia VN ngay cang thuan tien cd y nghTa trong viec tac ddng den cac DN VN dau tu ra nudc ngoai. Vi vay, de cac DN VN tham nhap nhanh va sau han vao thi trudng nudc ngoai, cac CO quan quan li Nha nudc VN nen lam cho cac quy dinh, thu tuc ve cip phep dSu tu ngay cang don gian hon.
30 5 Thanh Thu & cpng su Tap chi Phat triSn Kinh ti, 27(9), 04-33
Nhdm cac ySu td thu hiit dku tu tac ddng dSn FDI cua DN VN vao Campuchia bao gdm: Nhdm ylu td van hda - dja li (gdm cac nhan td: Tdn giao, phong tyc tap quan, thai dd, tin nguang, ngdn ngu va giao tiSp cua hai nudc tuang ddng, vi tri dia li ciia hai nuijc gSn nhau), nhdm ySu td nay tac dgng manh nhSt ddn quylt dinh dau tu tryc tiep ciia cac DN VN vao thi trudng Campuchia, nghien cuu thyc tiln ciing khJng dinh ket luan nay:
Tranh chip lanh thd bien gidi, ki thi dan tdc Viet cua mdt sd nhom phe phai trong Quoc Hdi va mdt sd vung d Campuchia tac ddng can trd khdng nhd din hoat ddng kinh doanh ndi rieng va dku tu noi chung ciia cac DN Viet tren thi trudng nay. Theo tac gia, viec gap riit phan chia bien gidi giua hai nudc, tang cudng giao luu van hda, td chiic giao ket giua cac dia phuong ciia hai nudc, gdp phin on dinh chinh tri la ca sd quan trgng tang cudng hoat ddng dku tu tryc tilp tren thi trudng nay. Ngoai ra, viec md cac Idp day ngon ngu Kho'-me, hgc vl van hda ciia ngud'i Campuchia cho cac nha dku tu, chuyen gia, nha thuang mai... da, dang va se kinh doanh tai thj trudng nay cung gdp phin tang cudng tinh hiru nghi gi&a hai dan tdc. Nhdm ylu td Ca sd ha tang la nhan to tac ddng manh thu hai din quylt dinh dku tu tryc tilp ciia cac DN VN vao Campuchia (bao gdm: He thong giao thdng cua Campuchia, he thdng giao thdng ndi lien hai nudc, he thdng thdng tin lien lac, buu dien thuan tien, he thong cung cap dien, nudc, dich vy dao tao ngudn nhan lyc, dich vu y tl - kham chfla benh ciia Campuchia)... Chinh phii VN can phdi hgp vdi Campuchia tang cudng cdng tac xay dung, md rgng cau dudng nhu hanh lang kinh te Ddng Tay, cac tuyln dudng bd, dudng thiiy, dudng hang khdng de tao thuan lgi hon nira cho sy dau tu, giao thuang giii'a hai nudc. Ngoai ra, khuyen khich cac DN van tai, buu chinh vien thdng, dien ... dau tu vao nhau. Ben canh dd, hai nudc can cd ca che dac biet khuyen khich cac dy an cham sdc siic khde nhu: Benh vien, phdng kham... cua VN trien khai tai Campuchia. De giai quyet van de vT md va thi trudng, ca che chinh sach lien quan den dau tu thi Chinh phu cua ca hai nudc can xay dyng ca che hgp tac lien chinh phu, trong do, cd sy tham gia ciia cac nha khoa hgc va dai dien Hiep hgi cac nha dau tu vao Campuchia nham ra soat lai ca che chinh sach lien quan den dau tu tryc tiep (ca che dau tu ra nudc ngoai cua VN, ca che thu hiit dau tu cua Campuchia), chi ra cac han che dieu hanh chinh sach vT md va thi trudng cua ca hai nudc de tir dd de xuat cac giai phap hoan thien.
Hgn chi vd hudng nghiin cuu tiip theo: tac gia thyc hien lay phieu khao sat cac DN dang dau tu va cd y dinh dau tu vao Campuchia theo phuong phap thuan tien va phat trien mam, do dd tinh tdng quat cua nghien ciiu chua cao; ngoai ra, nghien ciru chua chi ra cac nganh dau tu khac nhau vao Campuchia cd miic do thuan lgi va khd khan gidng
ve Thanh Thu cS: cpng sir. Tap chi Phat trien Kinh ti, 27(9), 04-33 31
va khac nhau nhu the nao ma chi tap trung khang dinh thiet ke nghien ciiu bang he sd tin cay Cronbach's Alpha va phan tich nhan to kham pha EFA, hdi quy tuyen tinh bdi.
Hudng nghien ciiu tiep theo tac gia de xuat can tang cudrng mau khao sat, sii dung md hinh cau tnic SEM de xem xet mdi quan he nhan qua gitia cac nhan td anh hudng tryc tiep va gian tiep den dau t u tryc tiep ciia V N vao C a m p u c h i a *
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